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Cookbooks · Risk and execution · Advanced · about 12 min

Risk guardrail before an order

Before an order goes out, ask for its drawdown odds and trend, and send block, reduce or allow to your order system.

1. When to use it

   A last check before execution: no new long when a large drawdown is likely and the stock is already under its 50-day average; a half-size order when only the drawdown odds are high; otherwise allow. The three actions are exclusive, so exactly one decision arrives.

2. The request

   {
     "model": "ora-fin1",
     "state": {
       "symbol": "TSLA"
     },
     "questions": {
       "drop5": {
         "type": "yes_no",
         "instructions": "Will it drop at least 5% at some point in the next month?"
       },
       "down_week": {
         "type": "yes_no",
         "instructions": "Will the stock be lower in a week?"
       },
       "below_50d": {
         "type": "yes_no",
         "ask": "C < sma(C,50)"
       }
     },
     "actions": [
       {
         "id": "block",
         "when": "drop5 >= 0.6 and below_50d >= 0.6",
         "do": "webhook",
         "connection": "my-oms",
         "body": {
           "symbol": "{{symbol}}",
           "decision": "block",
           "reason": "drawdown_risk_in_downtrend",
           "p_drop5": "{{drop5}}",
           "p_below_50d": "{{below_50d}}",
           "as_of": "{{as_of}}"
         }
       },
       {
         "id": "reduce",
         "when": "drop5 >= 0.6 and below_50d < 0.6",
         "do": "webhook",
         "connection": "my-oms",
         "body": {
           "symbol": "{{symbol}}",
           "decision": "reduce_size",
           "max_fraction": 0.5,
           "p_drop5": "{{drop5}}",
           "as_of": "{{as_of}}"
         }
       },
       {
         "id": "allow",
         "when": "else",
         "do": "webhook",
         "connection": "my-oms",
         "body": {
           "symbol": "{{symbol}}",
           "decision": "allow",
           "p_drop5": "{{drop5}}",
           "as_of": "{{as_of}}"
         }
       }
     ],
     "dry_run": true
   }

   Open this in the Playground

3. The real response

   {
     "model": "ora-fin1",
     "answers": {
       "drop5": {
         "type": "yes_no",
         "yes_no": 0.638
       },
       "down_week": {
         "type": "yes_no",
         "yes_no": 0.455
       },
       "below_50d": {
         "type": "yes_no",
         "yes_no": 0.1039,
         "rule": "C < sma(C,50)",
         "basis": "rule"
       }
     },
     "usage": {
       "input_tokens": 358,
       "output_tokens": 12
     },
     "context": {
       "source": "server",
       "symbol": "TSLA",
       "as_of": "2026-10-30"
     },
     "version": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
     "actions": [
       {
         "id": "block",
         "fired": false,
         "status": "skipped"
       },
       {
         "id": "reduce",
         "fired": true,
         "status": "dry_run",
         "do": "webhook",
         "connection": "my-oms",
         "preview": {
           "body": {
             "symbol": "TSLA",
             "decision": "reduce_size",
             "max_fraction": 0.5,
             "p_drop5": 0.638,
             "as_of": "2026-10-30"
           }
         }
       },
       {
         "id": "allow",
         "fired": false,
         "status": "skipped"
       }
     ]
   }

   drop5 is 0.638 but TSLA is not under its 50-day average (below_50d 0.1039), so block was skipped and reduce fired with max_fraction: 0.5.

4. The code

   cURLPythonJavaScriptPHPGoJavaC#RubyCopy

   Requires curl 7.76+. Save as run.sh, then: bash run.sh

   curl -sS https://oramodel.com/v1/systemone \
     -H "Authorization: Bearer $JEV_API_KEY" \
     -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
     -d '{
     "model": "ora-fin1",
     "state": {
       "symbol": "TSLA"
     },
     "questions": {
       "drop5": {
         "type": "yes_no",
         "instructions": "Will it drop at least 5% at some point in the next month?"
       },
       "down_week": {
         "type": "yes_no",
         "instructions": "Will the stock be lower in a week?"
       },
       "below_50d": {
         "type": "yes_no",
         "ask": "C < sma(C,50)"
       }
     },
     "actions": [
       {
         "id": "block",
         "when": "drop5 >= 0.6 and below_50d >= 0.6",
         "do": "webhook",
         "connection": "my-oms",
         "body": {
           "symbol": "{{symbol}}",
           "decision": "block",
           "reason": "drawdown_risk_in_downtrend",
           "p_drop5": "{{drop5}}",
           "p_below_50d": "{{below_50d}}",
           "as_of": "{{as_of}}"
         }
       },
       {
         "id": "reduce",
         "when": "drop5 >= 0.6 and below_50d < 0.6",
         "do": "webhook",
         "connection": "my-oms",
         "body": {
           "symbol": "{{symbol}}",
           "decision": "reduce_size",
           "max_fraction": 0.5,
           "p_drop5": "{{drop5}}",
           "as_of": "{{as_of}}"
         }
       },
       {
         "id": "allow",
         "when": "else",
         "do": "webhook",
         "connection": "my-oms",
         "body": {
           "symbol": "{{symbol}}",
           "decision": "allow",
           "p_drop5": "{{drop5}}",
           "as_of": "{{as_of}}"
         }
       }
     ],
     "dry_run": true
   }'

   Or inline in the order path, without a webhook. Decide what happens when the check itself fails (here: fail closed, the order waits):

   import os
   import requests
   
   URL = "https://oramodel.com/v1/systemone"
   HEADERS = {"Authorization": f"Bearer {os.environ['JEV_API_KEY']}"}
   
   QUESTIONS = {
       "drop5": {
           "type": "yes_no",
           "instructions": "Will it drop at least 5% at some point in the next month?"
       },
       "down_week": {
           "type": "yes_no",
           "instructions": "Will the stock be lower in a week?"
       },
       "below_50d": {
           "type": "yes_no",
           "ask": "C < sma(C,50)"
       }
   }
   
   def pre_trade_check(symbol):
       try:
           r = requests.post(URL, headers=HEADERS, timeout=10,
                             json={"model": "ora-fin1", "state": {"symbol": symbol}, "questions": QUESTIONS})
           r.raise_for_status()
       except requests.RequestException:
           return "hold", None                      # fail closed
       a = {k: v["yes_no"] for k, v in r.json()["answers"].items()}
       if a["drop5"] >= 0.6 and a["below_50d"] >= 0.6:
           return "block", a
       if a["drop5"] >= 0.6:
           return "reduce_size", a
       return "allow", a

5. Act on it

   Make the guardrail advisory before it is binding: log its decision next to every order for a few weeks, compare with what happened, then let block stop orders. Keep a manual override, and record when it was used.

6. Variations

   • Shorter horizon: add down_week to the block rule for short-term trades.
   • Sell-side check: block a short when rally5 is high.
   • Combine with the volatility multiplier so the size and the guardrail come from one request.

Information, not investment advice. Every number on this page is a real response for the session shown; answers change with each session.

What's next

• Send decisions to your own system
• Handle errors, rate limits and retries