Model

Fund-of-funds allocator: 20 ways to use Ora

Allocates across managers and ETFs: regime reads, factor sleeves and rebalancing bands. Each example is a complete, runnable request with the real answers it returned (53 requests, captured 2026-10-31), what they mean and, where it fits, the action it would send.

Run withAnswers were captured on ora-fin-0.1.1. Another model changes the request JSON and the Playground link; run it there to see its answers.

Rule functions and facts used by this player (37)

sma 18 roc 7 max 5 offset 5 ema 3 ref 3 atr 3 adx 2 rsi 2 lowest 2 diminus 1 diplus 1 crossdown 1 log 1 sqrt 1 std 1 div_yield_ttm 1 raised_last 1 swinghigh 1 swinglow 1 avg 1 crossup 1 macd 1 zscore 1 dark_cloud 1 doji 1 engulfing_bear 1 engulfing_bull 1 harami_bear 1 abs 1 gap_up 1 greatest 1 least 1 outside_bar 1 highestbars 1 sum 1 rma 1

Examples 1–10 of 20 · page 1 of 2

Fund-of-funds allocator · example 1

Factor sleeve regime: momentum, quality, value, low volatility

Compare the four factor ETFs the allocator uses as sleeves on trend and momentum before the monthly rebalance.

ora-fin-0.1.14 symbols, one request each4 questions

State4 symbols
Questions4 asked
Answersreal, captured
Actionsnone

State

{"symbol":"MTUM"} then QUAL, VLUE, USMV, one request each. The server fills in the latest completed session.

Questions

`trend`	English → rule	Is the stock above its 200-day moving average?
`mom`	rule	`C > C[-63]` Higher than three months ago
`near_high`	rule	`C >= 0.98 * max(H, 252)` Within 2% of the 52-week high
`beat_spy`	forecast	Will it beat SPY over the next month? Beating SPY over a month

Answers

Symbol	`trend`rule	`mom`rule	`near_high`rule	`beat_spy`forecast
`MTUM`	0.2691	0.1144	0.0537	0.486
`QUAL`	0.9463	0.6814	0.2605	0.495
`VLUE`	0.9291	0.6193	0.0581	0.512
`USMV`	0.9463	0.9439	0.8261	0.427

true false not known for rules; forecasts are odds. Hover a column for its question.

What it means

Session of 2026-10-30, 4 symbols: Is the stock above its 200-day moving average: true for QUAL, VLUE, USMV of 4. Higher than three months ago: true for QUAL, VLUE, USMV of 4. Within 2% of the 52-week high: true for USMV of 4. Highest odds for “Beating SPY over a month”: VLUE at 51%.

Sleeves with trend and momentum keep or gain weight within their bands; the laggard is checked against its long-run role before cutting.

Request JSON (MTUM; the others differ only in the symbol)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "state": {
    "symbol": "MTUM"
  },
  "questions": {
    "trend": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Is the stock above its 200-day moving average?"
    },
    "mom": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "C > C[-63]"
    },
    "near_high": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "C >= 0.98 * max(H, 252)"
    },
    "beat_spy": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will it beat SPY over the next month?"
    }
  }
}

Response JSON (MTUM, real)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "answers": {
    "trend": {
      "yes_no": 0.2691,
      "rule": "C > sma(C, 200)",
      "basis": "comparison"
    },
    "mom": {
      "yes_no": 0.1144,
      "rule": "C > C[-63]",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "near_high": {
      "yes_no": 0.0537,
      "rule": "C >= 0.98 * max(H, 252)",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "beat_spy": {
      "yes_no": 0.486
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "symbol": "MTUM",
    "as_of": "2026-10-30"
  }
}

max offset sma

Try it in the Playground

Fund-of-funds allocator · example 2

Growth or value tilt: IWF versus IWD

Decide which style manager gets the next allocation by comparing the two style benchmarks.

ora-fin-0.1.12 symbols, one request each5 questions

State2 symbols
Questions5 asked
Answersreal, captured
Actionsnone

State

{"symbol":"IWF"} then IWD, one request each. The server fills in the latest completed session.

Questions

`trend`	rule	`C > ema(C, 20) and ema(C, 20) > sma(C, 50) and sma(C, 50) > sma(C, 200)` Stacked averages: close > 20 EMA > 50 > 200
`roc`	rule	`roc(C, 63) > 5` Up more than 5% over three months
`adx`	rule	`adx(14) > 20 and diplus(14) > diminus(14)` Trending up (ADX over 20 and +DI over −DI)
`rsi`	rule	`rsi(C, 14) > 50` RSI above 50
`beat_spy`	forecast	Will it beat SPY over the next month? Beating SPY over a month

Answers

Symbol	`trend`rule	`roc`rule	`adx`rule	`rsi`rule	`beat_spy`forecast
`IWF`	0.0613	0.0583	0.0568	0.0737	0.497
`IWD`	0.7838	0.1384	0.8823	0.8528	0.471

true false not known for rules; forecasts are odds. Hover a column for its question.

What it means

Session of 2026-10-30, 2 symbols: Stacked averages: close > 20 EMA > 50 > 200: true for IWD of 2. Up more than 5% over three months: true for none of 2. Trending up (ADX over 20 and +DI over −DI): true for IWD of 2. RSI above 50: true for IWD of 2. Highest odds for “Beating SPY over a month”: IWF at 50%.

The stronger style benchmark guides where new money goes; the allocator still respects each manager's band.

Request JSON (IWF; the others differ only in the symbol)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "state": {
    "symbol": "IWF"
  },
  "questions": {
    "trend": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "C > ema(C, 20) and ema(C, 20) > sma(C, 50) and sma(C, 50) > sma(C, 200)"
    },
    "roc": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "roc(C, 63) > 5"
    },
    "adx": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "adx(14) > 20 and diplus(14) > diminus(14)"
    },
    "rsi": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "rsi(C, 14) > 50"
    },
    "beat_spy": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will it beat SPY over the next month?"
    }
  }
}

Response JSON (IWF, real)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "answers": {
    "trend": {
      "yes_no": 0.0613,
      "rule": "C > ema(C, 20) and ema(C, 20) > sma(C, 50) and sma(C, 50) > sma(C, 200)",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "roc": {
      "yes_no": 0.0583,
      "rule": "roc(C, 63) > 5",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "adx": {
      "yes_no": 0.0568,
      "rule": "adx(14) > 20 and diplus(14) > diminus(14)",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "rsi": {
      "yes_no": 0.0737,
      "rule": "rsi(C, 14) > 50",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "beat_spy": {
      "yes_no": 0.497
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "symbol": "IWF",
    "as_of": "2026-10-30"
  }
}

adx diminus diplus ema roc rsi sma

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Fund-of-funds allocator · example 3

Regional allocation: US, Europe, Japan, emerging markets

Read trend across the regions the allocator funds through regional managers.

ora-fin-0.1.14 symbols, one request each4 questions

State4 symbols
Questions4 asked
Answersreal, captured
Actionsnone

State

{"symbol":"VTI"} then VGK, EWJ, VWO, one request each. The server fills in the latest completed session.

Questions

`trend`	English → rule	Is the stock above its 200-day moving average?
`sma_up`	rule	`sma(C, 200) > ref(sma(C, 200), -20)` The 200-day average is rising
`mom`	rule	`roc(C, 20) > 5` Up more than 5% in 20 sessions
`drop5`	forecast	Will it drop at least 5% at some point in the next month? A 5% drawdown within a month

Answers

Symbol	`trend`rule	`sma_up`rule	`mom`rule	`drop5`forecast
`VTI`	0.9415	0.9463	0.0537	0.187
`VGK`	0.6118	0.8942	0.1318	0.126
`EWJ`	0.778	0.9463	0.0537	0.34
`VWO`	0.0887	0.9463	0.0537	0.255

true false not known for rules; forecasts are odds. Hover a column for its question.

What it means

Session of 2026-10-30, 4 symbols: Is the stock above its 200-day moving average: true for VTI, VGK, EWJ of 4. The 200-day average is rising: true for VTI, VGK, EWJ, VWO of 4. Up more than 5% in 20 sessions: true for none of 4. Highest odds for “A 5% drawdown within a month”: EWJ at 34%.

Regions with rising 200-day averages hold their weights; a region below a falling average is the first candidate to trim.

Request JSON (VTI; the others differ only in the symbol)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "state": {
    "symbol": "VTI"
  },
  "questions": {
    "trend": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Is the stock above its 200-day moving average?"
    },
    "sma_up": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "sma(C, 200) > ref(sma(C, 200), -20)"
    },
    "mom": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "roc(C, 20) > 5"
    },
    "drop5": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will it drop at least 5% at some point in the next month?"
    }
  }
}

Response JSON (VTI, real)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "answers": {
    "trend": {
      "yes_no": 0.9415,
      "rule": "C > sma(C, 200)",
      "basis": "comparison"
    },
    "sma_up": {
      "yes_no": 0.9463,
      "rule": "sma(C, 200) > ref(sma(C, 200), -20)",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "mom": {
      "yes_no": 0.0537,
      "rule": "roc(C, 20) > 5",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "drop5": {
      "yes_no": 0.187
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "symbol": "VTI",
    "as_of": "2026-10-30"
  }
}

ref roc sma

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Fund-of-funds allocator · example 4

Rebalance band breach: equities versus bonds

When equities run far above trend or bonds fall far below, the allocator rebalances back to policy; check both sides.

ora-fin-0.1.12 symbols, one request each4 questions1 action

State2 symbols
Questions4 asked
Answersreal, captured
Actions1 rule · dry run

State

{"symbol":"VTI"} then AGG, one request each. The server fills in the latest completed session.

Questions

`ext`	rule	`C > sma(C, 200) * 1.10` More than 10% above the 200-day
`below`	English → rule	Is the stock more than 5% below its 50-day moving average?
`dd`	rule	`C < 0.8 * max(H, 252)` More than 20% off the 52-week high
`drop5`	forecast	Will it drop at least 5% at some point in the next month? A 5% drawdown within a month

Answers

Symbol	`ext`rule	`below`rule	`dd`rule	`drop5`forecast	Fired
`VTI`	0.0537	0.0546	0.0537	0.187	none
`AGG`	0.0537	0.0537	0.0537	0.009	none

true false not known for rules; forecasts are odds. Hover a column for its question.

Actions

Rules on the answers decide what to send. Each symbol runs its own request, so each one can fire.

ext >= 0.6 or below >= 0.6 or dd >= 0.6→Webhookallocation-system

VTI 0 of 1 fired · dry run, nothing sent

AGG 0 of 1 fired · dry run, nothing sent

What it means

Session of 2026-10-30, 2 symbols: More than 10% above the 200-day: true for none of 2. Is the stock more than 5% below its 50-day moving average: true for none of 2. More than 20% off the 52-week high: true for none of 2. Highest odds for “A 5% drawdown within a month”: VTI at 19%. rebalance fired for none.

The allocation system queues a rebalance check only when a sleeve is far from trend; the trade size comes from the policy weights.

Request JSON (VTI; the others differ only in the symbol)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "state": {
    "symbol": "VTI"
  },
  "questions": {
    "ext": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "C > sma(C, 200) * 1.10"
    },
    "below": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Is the stock more than 5% below its 50-day moving average?"
    },
    "dd": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "C < 0.8 * max(H, 252)"
    },
    "drop5": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will it drop at least 5% at some point in the next month?"
    }
  },
  "actions": [
    {
      "id": "rebalance",
      "when": "ext >= 0.6 or below >= 0.6 or dd >= 0.6",
      "do": "webhook",
      "connection": "allocation-system",
      "body": {
        "event": "rebalance_check",
        "symbol": "{{symbol}}",
        "p_extended": "{{ext}}",
        "p_below_50d": "{{below}}",
        "p_drawdown": "{{dd}}",
        "as_of": "{{as_of}}"
      }
    }
  ],
  "dry_run": true
}

Response JSON (VTI, real)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "answers": {
    "ext": {
      "yes_no": 0.0537,
      "rule": "C > sma(C, 200) * 1.10",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "below": {
      "yes_no": 0.0546,
      "rule": "C < sma(C, 50) * 0.95",
      "basis": "comparison"
    },
    "dd": {
      "yes_no": 0.0537,
      "rule": "C < 0.8 * max(H, 252)",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "drop5": {
      "yes_no": 0.187
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "symbol": "VTI",
    "as_of": "2026-10-30"
  },
  "actions": [
    {
      "id": "rebalance",
      "fired": false,
      "status": "skipped"
    }
  ]
}

max sma

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Fund-of-funds allocator · example 5

Weekly benchmark health for every manager mandate

Each Friday, check the benchmark of every external manager and email the team where a benchmark breaks down.

ora-fin-0.1.14 symbols, one request each3 questions1 actionworkflow · Fri at 17:00 ET

ScheduleFri at 17:00 ET
State4 symbols
Questions3 asked
Answersreal, captured
Actions1 rule · dry run

State

{"symbol":"SPY"} then IWM, EFA, HYG, one request each. The server fills in the latest completed session.

Questions

`breakdown`	rule	`C < lowest(L, 20)` Closed under the 20-day low
`below`	English → rule	Is the stock below its 200-day moving average?
`drop5`	forecast	Will it drop at least 5% at some point in the next month? A 5% drawdown within a month

Answers

Symbol	`breakdown`rule	`below`rule	`drop5`forecast	Fired
`SPY`	0.6271	0.0549	0.203	`flag`
`IWM`	0.0741	0.4436	0.234	none
`EFA`	0.2037	0.3291	0.163	none
`HYG`	0.0811	0.8091	0.009	`flag`

true false not known for rules; forecasts are odds. Hover a column for its question.

Actions

Rules on the answers decide what to send. Each symbol runs its own request, so each one can fire.

breakdown >= 0.6 or below >= 0.6→Emailallocation-team

SPY 1 of 1 fired · dry run, nothing sent

flagwould send (dry run)Email → allocation-team

{
  "subject": "Benchmark alert: SPY (2026-10-30)",
  "text": "SPY broke its 20-day low (63%) or is below its 200-day (5%). 5% drawdown odds: 20%. Expect weak relative numbers from managers benchmarked here."
}

IWM 0 of 1 fired · dry run, nothing sent

EFA 0 of 1 fired · dry run, nothing sent

HYG 1 of 1 fired · dry run, nothing sent

flagwould send (dry run)Email → allocation-team

{
  "subject": "Benchmark alert: HYG (2026-10-30)",
  "text": "HYG broke its 20-day low (8%) or is below its 200-day (81%). 5% drawdown odds: 1%. Expect weak relative numbers from managers benchmarked here."
}

What it means

Session of 2026-10-30, 4 symbols: Closed under the 20-day low: true for SPY of 4. Is the stock below its 200-day moving average: true for HYG of 4. Highest odds for “A 5% drawdown within a month”: IWM at 23%. flag fired for SPY, HYG.

A benchmark breaking down explains manager returns before the monthly reports arrive.

As a scheduled workflow (Fri at 17:00 ET)

Create it under Workflows in the console: it runs these questions for every symbol on the schedule and fires the actions per symbol. The answers above are what one run returned.

{
  "name": "Weekly benchmark health for every manager mandate",
  "symbols": "SPY IWM EFA HYG",
  "days": [
    5
  ],
  "at_time": "17:00",
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "questions": {
    "breakdown": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "C < lowest(L, 20)"
    },
    "below": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Is the stock below its 200-day moving average?"
    },
    "drop5": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will it drop at least 5% at some point in the next month?"
    }
  },
  "actions": [
    {
      "id": "flag",
      "when": "breakdown >= 0.6 or below >= 0.6",
      "do": "email",
      "connection": "allocation-team",
      "subject": "Benchmark alert: {{symbol}} ({{as_of}})",
      "message": "{{symbol}} broke its 20-day low ({{breakdown|pct}}) or is below its 200-day ({{below|pct}}). 5% drawdown odds: {{drop5|pct}}. Expect weak relative numbers from managers benchmarked here."
    }
  ]
}

Request JSON (SPY; the others differ only in the symbol)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "state": {
    "symbol": "SPY"
  },
  "questions": {
    "breakdown": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "C < lowest(L, 20)"
    },
    "below": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Is the stock below its 200-day moving average?"
    },
    "drop5": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will it drop at least 5% at some point in the next month?"
    }
  },
  "actions": [
    {
      "id": "flag",
      "when": "breakdown >= 0.6 or below >= 0.6",
      "do": "email",
      "connection": "allocation-team",
      "subject": "Benchmark alert: {{symbol}} ({{as_of}})",
      "message": "{{symbol}} broke its 20-day low ({{breakdown|pct}}) or is below its 200-day ({{below|pct}}). 5% drawdown odds: {{drop5|pct}}. Expect weak relative numbers from managers benchmarked here."
    }
  ],
  "dry_run": true
}

Response JSON (SPY, real)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "answers": {
    "breakdown": {
      "yes_no": 0.6271,
      "rule": "C < lowest(L, 20)",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "below": {
      "yes_no": 0.0549,
      "rule": "C < sma(C, 200)",
      "basis": "comparison"
    },
    "drop5": {
      "yes_no": 0.203
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "symbol": "SPY",
    "as_of": "2026-10-30"
  },
  "actions": [
    {
      "id": "flag",
      "fired": true,
      "status": "dry_run",
      "do": "email",
      "connection": "allocation-team",
      "preview": {
        "subject": "Benchmark alert: SPY (2026-10-30)",
        "text": "SPY broke its 20-day low (63%) or is below its 200-day (5%). 5% drawdown odds: 20%. Expect weak relative numbers from managers benchmarked here."
      }
    }
  ]
}

lowest sma

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Fund-of-funds allocator · example 6

Real assets sleeve: gold, broad commodities, REITs

Check the inflation-hedge sleeve: which real asset is trending and which is stretched.

ora-fin-0.1.13 symbols, one request each4 questions

State3 symbols
Questions4 asked
Answersreal, captured
Actionsnone

State

{"symbol":"GLD"} then DBC, VNQ, one request each. The server fills in the latest completed session.

Questions

`trend`	English → rule	Is the stock above its 200-day moving average?
`stretched`	rule	`C > sma(C, 20) + 2 * atr(14)` Stretched: more than 2 ATR above the 20-day
`mom`	rule	`roc(C, 63) > 10 and C >= 0.95 * max(H, 63)` Up more than 10% in a quarter, near the high
`rally5`	forecast	Will it rally at least 5% at some point in the next month? A 5% rally within a month

Answers

Symbol	`trend`rule	`stretched`rule	`mom`rule	`rally5`forecast
`GLD`	0.0537	0.063	0.0537	0.503
`DBC`	0.9463	0.1381	0.8089	0.392
`VNQ`	0.6285	0.4542	0.0537	0.247

true false not known for rules; forecasts are odds. Hover a column for its question.

What it means

Session of 2026-10-30, 3 symbols: Is the stock above its 200-day moving average: true for DBC, VNQ of 3. Stretched: more than 2 ATR above the 20-day: true for none of 3. Up more than 10% in a quarter, near the high: true for DBC of 3. Highest odds for “A 5% rally within a month”: GLD at 50%.

A stretched real asset is trimmed toward its band; a trending one with room keeps its weight.

Request JSON (GLD; the others differ only in the symbol)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "state": {
    "symbol": "GLD"
  },
  "questions": {
    "trend": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Is the stock above its 200-day moving average?"
    },
    "stretched": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "C > sma(C, 20) + 2 * atr(14)"
    },
    "mom": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "roc(C, 63) > 10 and C >= 0.95 * max(H, 63)"
    },
    "rally5": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will it rally at least 5% at some point in the next month?"
    }
  }
}

Response JSON (GLD, real)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "answers": {
    "trend": {
      "yes_no": 0.0537,
      "rule": "C > sma(C, 200)",
      "basis": "comparison"
    },
    "stretched": {
      "yes_no": 0.063,
      "rule": "C > sma(C, 20) + 2 * atr(14)",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "mom": {
      "yes_no": 0.0537,
      "rule": "roc(C, 63) > 10 and C >= 0.95 * max(H, 63)",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "rally5": {
      "yes_no": 0.503
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "symbol": "GLD",
    "as_of": "2026-10-30"
  }
}

atr max roc sma

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Fund-of-funds allocator · example 7

Credit sleeve: high yield, loans and EM debt

The credit managers' benchmarks warn first in risk-off markets; check trend and breakdowns.

ora-fin-0.1.13 symbols, one request each4 questions

State3 symbols
Questions4 asked
Answersreal, captured
Actionsnone

State

{"symbol":"HYG"} then BKLN, EMB, one request each. The server fills in the latest completed session.

Questions

`trend`	English → rule	Is the stock above its 50-day moving average?
`breakdown`	rule	`C < lowest(L, 20)` Closed under the 20-day low
`cross`	rule	`crossdown(sma(C, 10), sma(C, 50))` 10-day average crossed under the 50-day today
`down_week`	forecast	Will the stock be lower in a week? Lower in a week

Answers

Symbol	`trend`rule	`breakdown`rule	`cross`rule	`down_week`forecast
`HYG`	0.1914	0.0811	0.05	0.425
`BKLN`	0.8133	0.0609	0.05	0.434
`EMB`	0.2584	0.0566	0.05	0.441

true false not known for rules; forecasts are odds. Hover a column for its question.

What it means

Session of 2026-10-30, 3 symbols: Is the stock above its 50-day moving average: true for BKLN of 3. Closed under the 20-day low: true for none of 3. 10-day average crossed under the 50-day today: true for none of 3. Highest odds for “Lower in a week”: EMB at 44%.

Breakdowns across all three credit benchmarks are a risk-off signal for the whole portfolio, not just the credit sleeve.

Request JSON (HYG; the others differ only in the symbol)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "state": {
    "symbol": "HYG"
  },
  "questions": {
    "trend": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Is the stock above its 50-day moving average?"
    },
    "breakdown": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "C < lowest(L, 20)"
    },
    "cross": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "crossdown(sma(C, 10), sma(C, 50))"
    },
    "down_week": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will the stock be lower in a week?"
    }
  }
}

Response JSON (HYG, real)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "answers": {
    "trend": {
      "yes_no": 0.1914,
      "rule": "C > sma(C, 50)",
      "basis": "comparison"
    },
    "breakdown": {
      "yes_no": 0.0811,
      "rule": "C < lowest(L, 20)",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "cross": {
      "yes_no": 0.05,
      "rule": "crossdown(sma(C, 10), sma(C, 50))",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "down_week": {
      "yes_no": 0.425
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "symbol": "HYG",
    "as_of": "2026-10-30"
  }
}

crossdown lowest sma

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Fund-of-funds allocator · example 8

Volatility regime gate for adding risk

Add to equity managers only when the market is calm; read SPY realized volatility and the VXX trend.

ora-fin-0.1.1SPY5 questions2 actions

StateSPY
Questions5 asked
Answersreal, captured
Actions2 rules · dry run

State

{"symbol":"SPY"} The server fills in the latest completed session.

Questions

`calm`	English → rule	Is 20-day historical volatility below 20%?
`vol5`	English → rule	Is 5-day volatility higher than 20-day volatility?
`atr`	rule	`atr(14) > 1.2 * ref(atr(14), -10)` ATR up 20% in two weeks
`vol_month`	forecast	Will volatility be higher over the next month? Higher volatility next month
`hv30`	forecast	Will annualized volatility over the next 21 sessions exceed 30%? Next-month volatility above 30%

Answers

Question	Answer	Reading
`calm` Is 20-day historical volatility below 20% compiled to `std(log(C / C[-1]), 20) * sqrt(20 / 19) * sqrt(252) < 0.2`	0.9463	true
`vol5` Is 5-day volatility higher than 20-day volatility compiled to `std(log(C / C[-1]), 5) * sqrt(5 / 4) > std(log(C / C[-1]), 20) * sqrt(20 / 19)`	0.8872	true
`atr` ATR up 20% in two weeks	0.2117	false
`vol_month` Higher volatility next month	0.69	69% · likely
`hv30` Next-month volatility above 30%	0.564	56% · close to even

Actions

Rules on the answers decide what to send.

calm >= 0.6 and atr < 0.5→Slackallocation-team

else→Slackallocation-team

What each action would send 1 of 2 fired · dry run, nothing sent

add_riskwould send (dry run)Slack → allocation-team

{
  "text": "SPY (2026-10-30): calm regime (20-day vol under 20% 95%). Higher vol next month 69%. Equity adds can proceed per plan."
}

deferrule false: skipped

What it means

For SPY on the session of 2026-10-30: True now: Is 20-day historical volatility below 20%; Is 5-day volatility higher than 20-day volatility. Not true: ATR up 20% in two weeks. Forecasts: Higher volatility next month 69%; Next-month volatility above 30% 56%. Fired: add_risk (Slack → allocation-team).

The gate turns a vague feeling about the market into a rule the team agreed on in advance.

Request JSON

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "state": {
    "symbol": "SPY"
  },
  "questions": {
    "calm": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Is 20-day historical volatility below 20%?"
    },
    "vol5": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Is 5-day volatility higher than 20-day volatility?"
    },
    "atr": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "atr(14) > 1.2 * ref(atr(14), -10)"
    },
    "vol_month": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will volatility be higher over the next month?"
    },
    "hv30": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will annualized volatility over the next 21 sessions exceed 30%?"
    }
  },
  "actions": [
    {
      "id": "add_risk",
      "when": "calm >= 0.6 and atr < 0.5",
      "do": "slack",
      "connection": "allocation-team",
      "message": "SPY ({{as_of}}): calm regime (20-day vol under 20% {{calm|pct}}). Higher vol next month {{vol_month|pct}}. Equity adds can proceed per plan."
    },
    {
      "id": "defer",
      "when": "else",
      "do": "slack",
      "connection": "allocation-team",
      "message": "SPY ({{as_of}}): volatility not calm (5d over 20d {{vol5|pct}}, ATR expanding {{atr|pct}}). Defer equity adds a week."
    }
  ],
  "dry_run": true
}

Response JSON (SPY, real)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "answers": {
    "calm": {
      "yes_no": 0.9463,
      "rule": "std(log(C / C[-1]), 20) * sqrt(20 / 19) * sqrt(252) < 0.2",
      "basis": "pattern"
    },
    "vol5": {
      "yes_no": 0.8872,
      "rule": "std(log(C / C[-1]), 5) * sqrt(5 / 4) > std(log(C / C[-1]), 20) * sqrt(20 / 19)",
      "basis": "pattern"
    },
    "atr": {
      "yes_no": 0.2117,
      "rule": "atr(14) > 1.2 * ref(atr(14), -10)",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "vol_month": {
      "yes_no": 0.69
    },
    "hv30": {
      "yes_no": 0.564
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "symbol": "SPY",
    "as_of": "2026-10-30"
  },
  "actions": [
    {
      "id": "add_risk",
      "fired": true,
      "status": "dry_run",
      "do": "slack",
      "connection": "allocation-team",
      "preview": {
        "text": "SPY (2026-10-30): calm regime (20-day vol under 20% 95%). Higher vol next month 69%. Equity adds can proceed per plan."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "defer",
      "fired": false,
      "status": "skipped"
    }
  ]
}

atr log offset ref sqrt std

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Fund-of-funds allocator · example 9

Income managers: dividend ETF health

Check the dividend strategies that income managers are benchmarked against: trend, yield and payout growth.

ora-fin-0.1.13 symbols, one request each3 questions

State3 symbols
Questions3 asked
Answersreal, captured
Actionsnone

State

{"symbol":"SCHD"} then VYM, NOBL, one request each. The server fills in the latest completed session.

Questions

`trend`	English → rule	Is the stock above its 200-day moving average?
`yield`	English → rule	Is the dividend yield above 3%?
`raised`	rule	`raised_last > 0.5` Raised its last dividend

Answers

Symbol	`trend`rule	`yield`rule	`raised`rule
`SCHD`	0.9463	0.4287	0.8591
`VYM`	0.9274	0.0901	0.1409
`NOBL`	0.9335	0.0674	0.1409

true false not known for rules; forecasts are odds. Hover a column for its question.

What it means

Session of 2026-10-30, 3 symbols: Is the stock above its 200-day moving average: true for SCHD, VYM, NOBL of 3. Is the dividend yield above 3%: true for none of 3. Raised its last dividend: true for SCHD of 3.

Income benchmarks in an uptrend with steady payouts mean the income sleeve is doing its job; a falling trend is a review.

Request JSON (SCHD; the others differ only in the symbol)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "state": {
    "symbol": "SCHD"
  },
  "questions": {
    "trend": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Is the stock above its 200-day moving average?"
    },
    "yield": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Is the dividend yield above 3%?"
    },
    "raised": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "raised_last > 0.5"
    }
  }
}

Response JSON (SCHD, real)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "answers": {
    "trend": {
      "yes_no": 0.9463,
      "rule": "C > sma(C, 200)",
      "basis": "comparison"
    },
    "yield": {
      "yes_no": 0.4287,
      "rule": "div_yield_ttm > 3",
      "basis": "pattern"
    },
    "raised": {
      "yes_no": 0.8591,
      "rule": "raised_last > 0.5",
      "basis": "rule"
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "symbol": "SCHD",
    "as_of": "2026-10-30"
  }
}

div_yield_ttm raised_last sma

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Fund-of-funds allocator · example 10

Small caps versus large caps for a size tilt

Decide whether to fund the small-cap manager by comparing IJR and MDY with SPY.

ora-fin-0.1.13 symbols, one request each4 questions

State3 symbols
Questions4 asked
Answersreal, captured
Actionsnone

State

{"symbol":"IJR"} then MDY, SPY, one request each. The server fills in the latest completed session.

Questions

`trend`	rule	`C > ema(C, 20) and ema(C, 20) > sma(C, 50) and sma(C, 50) > sma(C, 200)` Stacked averages: close > 20 EMA > 50 > 200
`hh_hl`	rule	`(swinghigh(3) > swinghigh(3, 2)) and (swinglow(3) > swinglow(3, 2))` Higher swing highs and higher swing lows
`mom`	rule	`roc(C, 20) > 5` Up more than 5% in 20 sessions
`beat_spy`	forecast	Will it beat SPY over the next month? Beating SPY over a month

Answers

Symbol	`trend`rule	`hh_hl`rule	`mom`rule	`beat_spy`forecast
`IJR`	0.2402	0.0685	0.1102	0.46
`MDY`	0.2268	0.2037	0.0741	0.446
`SPY`	0.0794	0.1736	0.0537	0.514

true false not known for rules; forecasts are odds. Hover a column for its question.

What it means

Session of 2026-10-30, 3 symbols: Stacked averages: close > 20 EMA > 50 > 200: true for none of 3. Higher swing highs and higher swing lows: true for none of 3. Up more than 5% in 20 sessions: true for none of 3. Highest odds for “Beating SPY over a month”: SPY at 51%.

Small and mid caps making higher swings while beating SPY support the size tilt; lagging ones keep it neutral.

Request JSON (IJR; the others differ only in the symbol)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "state": {
    "symbol": "IJR"
  },
  "questions": {
    "trend": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "C > ema(C, 20) and ema(C, 20) > sma(C, 50) and sma(C, 50) > sma(C, 200)"
    },
    "hh_hl": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "(swinghigh(3) > swinghigh(3, 2)) and (swinglow(3) > swinglow(3, 2))"
    },
    "mom": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "roc(C, 20) > 5"
    },
    "beat_spy": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will it beat SPY over the next month?"
    }
  }
}

Response JSON (IJR, real)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "answers": {
    "trend": {
      "yes_no": 0.2402,
      "rule": "C > ema(C, 20) and ema(C, 20) > sma(C, 50) and sma(C, 50) > sma(C, 200)",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "hh_hl": {
      "yes_no": 0.0685,
      "rule": "(swinghigh(3) > swinghigh(3, 2)) and (swinglow(3) > swinglow(3, 2))",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "mom": {
      "yes_no": 0.1102,
      "rule": "roc(C, 20) > 5",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "beat_spy": {
      "yes_no": 0.46
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "symbol": "IJR",
    "as_of": "2026-10-30"
  }
}

ema roc sma swinghigh swinglow

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Information, not investment advice. Rules answer from the latest completed daily session; forecasts are probabilities. Actions ran as dry runs: nothing was sent. More in Buy side: Financial advisor / RIA, Wealth manager, Family office, Hedge fund PM, Quant researcher, Portfolio manager (long-only), Risk manager, Private equity, VC / growth investor.

Create an account Open the Playground Everything here also lives in the console, next to your keys and usage.

Individuals

Buy side

Sell side

Corporates

Builders

Institutions

Factor sleeve regime: momentum, quality, value, low volatility

State

Questions

Answers

What it means

Growth or value tilt: IWF versus IWD

State

Questions

Answers

What it means

Regional allocation: US, Europe, Japan, emerging markets

State

Questions

Answers

What it means

Rebalance band breach: equities versus bonds

State

Questions

Answers

Actions

What it means

Weekly benchmark health for every manager mandate

State

Questions

Answers

Actions

What it means

Real assets sleeve: gold, broad commodities, REITs

State

Questions

Answers

What it means

Credit sleeve: high yield, loans and EM debt

State

Questions

Answers

What it means

Volatility regime gate for adding risk

State

Questions

Answers

Actions

What it means

Income managers: dividend ETF health

State

Questions

Answers

What it means

Small caps versus large caps for a size tilt

State

Questions

Answers

What it means