Model

Risk manager: 20 ways to use Ora

Limits, drawdowns, volatility regimes and pre-trade checks, with escalations that write themselves. Each example is a complete, runnable request with the real answers it returned (52 requests, captured 2026-10-31), what they mean and, where it fits, the action it would send.

Run withAnswers were captured on ora-fin-0.1.1. Another model changes the request JSON and the Playground link; run it there to see its answers.

Rule functions and facts used by this player (38)

offset 10 sma 8 atr 8 log 5 std 5 max 5 ref 5 sqrt 4 abs 3 atr_pct 2 avg 2 percentrank 2 swinglow 2 crossdown 2 rsi 2 swinghigh 2 min 1 tr 1 zscore 1 days_to_earnings 1 last_earnings_gap 1 last_earnings_move 1 highest 1 lowest 1 adx 1 between 1 gap_down 1 gap_up 1 gravestone_doji 1 hanging_man 1 harami_bear 1 shooting_star 1 iif 1 willr 1 marubozu 1 outside_bar 1 cut_last 1 div_yield_ttm 1

Examples 1–10 of 20 · page 1 of 2

Risk manager · example 1

Pre-trade risk gate on a TSLA buy: block, reduce or allow

Every buy order passes a gate first: block on high drawdown odds with a broken trend, reduce in a wide-range regime, otherwise allow.

ora-fin-0.1.1TSLA5 questions3 actions

StateTSLA
Questions5 asked
Answersreal, captured
Actions3 rules · dry run

State

{"symbol":"TSLA"} The server fills in the latest completed session.

Questions

`below_50d`	English → rule	Is the stock more than 5% below its 50-day moving average?
`wide`	rule	`atr_pct(14) > 3` A typical day moves more than 3%
`hv`	rule	`std(log(C / C[-1]), 20) * sqrt(252) > 0.4` Annualized 20-day volatility above 40%
`drop10`	forecast	Will it drop at least 10% at some point in the next month? A 10% drawdown within a month
`big_move`	forecast	Will there be a big move in either direction in the next 5 days? A big move either way in 5 days

Answers

Question	Answer	Reading
`below_50d` Is the stock more than 5% below its 50-day moving average compiled to `C < sma(C, 50) * 0.95`	0.0641	false
`wide` A typical day moves more than 3%	0.848	true
`hv` Annualized 20-day volatility above 40%	0.2867	false
`drop10` A 10% drawdown within a month	0.638	64% · likely
`big_move` A big move either way in 5 days	0.248	25% · unlikely

Actions

Rules on the answers decide what to send.

drop10 >= 0.6 and below_50d >= 0.6→Webhookrisk-gate

wide >= 0.6 or hv >= 0.6→Webhookrisk-gate

else→Webhookrisk-gate

What each action would send 1 of 3 fired · dry run, nothing sent

blockrule false: skipped

reducewould send (dry run)Webhook → risk-gate

{
  "symbol": "TSLA",
  "decision": "reduce_size",
  "max_fraction": 0.5,
  "p_wide": 0.848,
  "p_hv": 0.2867,
  "as_of": "2026-10-30"
}

allowrule false: skipped

What it means

For TSLA on the session of 2026-10-30: True now: A typical day moves more than 3%. Not true: Is the stock more than 5% below its 50-day moving average; Annualized 20-day volatility above 40%. Forecasts: A 10% drawdown within a month 64%; A big move either way in 5 days 25%. Fired: reduce (Webhook → risk-gate).

The order system reads one decision per request; the branches are checked in order, so a block wins over a reduce.

Request JSON

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "state": {
    "symbol": "TSLA"
  },
  "questions": {
    "below_50d": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Is the stock more than 5% below its 50-day moving average?"
    },
    "wide": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "atr_pct(14) > 3"
    },
    "hv": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "std(log(C / C[-1]), 20) * sqrt(252) > 0.4"
    },
    "drop10": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will it drop at least 10% at some point in the next month?"
    },
    "big_move": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will there be a big move in either direction in the next 5 days?"
    }
  },
  "actions": [
    {
      "id": "block",
      "when": "drop10 >= 0.6 and below_50d >= 0.6",
      "do": "webhook",
      "connection": "risk-gate",
      "body": {
        "symbol": "{{symbol}}",
        "decision": "block",
        "reason": "drawdown_odds_and_broken_trend",
        "p_drop10": "{{drop10}}",
        "p_below_50d": "{{below_50d}}",
        "as_of": "{{as_of}}"
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "reduce",
      "when": "wide >= 0.6 or hv >= 0.6",
      "do": "webhook",
      "connection": "risk-gate",
      "body": {
        "symbol": "{{symbol}}",
        "decision": "reduce_size",
        "max_fraction": 0.5,
        "p_wide": "{{wide}}",
        "p_hv": "{{hv}}",
        "as_of": "{{as_of}}"
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "allow",
      "when": "else",
      "do": "webhook",
      "connection": "risk-gate",
      "body": {
        "symbol": "{{symbol}}",
        "decision": "allow",
        "as_of": "{{as_of}}"
      }
    }
  ],
  "dry_run": true
}

Response JSON (TSLA, real)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "answers": {
    "below_50d": {
      "yes_no": 0.0641,
      "rule": "C < sma(C, 50) * 0.95",
      "basis": "comparison"
    },
    "wide": {
      "yes_no": 0.848,
      "rule": "atr_pct(14) > 3",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "hv": {
      "yes_no": 0.2867,
      "rule": "std(log(C / C[-1]), 20) * sqrt(252) > 0.4",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "drop10": {
      "yes_no": 0.638
    },
    "big_move": {
      "yes_no": 0.248
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "symbol": "TSLA",
    "as_of": "2026-10-30"
  },
  "actions": [
    {
      "id": "block",
      "fired": false,
      "status": "skipped"
    },
    {
      "id": "reduce",
      "fired": true,
      "status": "dry_run",
      "do": "webhook",
      "connection": "risk-gate",
      "preview": {
        "body": {
          "symbol": "TSLA",
          "decision": "reduce_size",
          "max_fraction": 0.5,
          "p_wide": 0.848,
          "p_hv": 0.2867,
          "as_of": "2026-10-30"
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "allow",
      "fired": false,
      "status": "skipped"
    }
  ]
}

atr_pct log offset sma sqrt std

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Risk manager · example 2

Drawdown limit breach opens a ticket

When a position falls more than 20% from its 52-week high, open a limit-breach ticket for the risk committee.

ora-fin-0.1.14 symbols, one request each4 questions1 action

State4 symbols
Questions4 asked
Answersreal, captured
Actions1 rule · dry run

State

{"symbol":"PFE"} then INTC, BA, NKE, one request each. The server fills in the latest completed session.

Questions

`dd20`	rule	`C < 0.8 * max(H, 252)` More than 20% off the 52-week high
`bear`	English → rule	Is the stock in bear-market territory, more than 20% below its 52-week high?
`still_falling`	English → rule	Is the stock down more than 5% over the last month?
`drop10`	forecast	Will it drop at least 10% at some point in the next month? A 10% drawdown within a month

Answers

Symbol	`dd20`rule	`bear`rule	`still_falling`rule	`drop10`forecast	Fired
`PFE`	0.0537	0.0537	0.0589	0.418	none
`INTC`	0.9463	0.9463	0.9324	0.836	`ticket`
`BA`	0.9296	0.9296	0.8487	0.426	`ticket`
`NKE`	0.9463	0.9463	0.0569	0.602	`ticket`

true false not known for rules; forecasts are odds. Hover a column for its question.

Actions

Rules on the answers decide what to send. Each symbol runs its own request, so each one can fire.

dd20 >= 0.6→Webhookrisk-tickets

PFE 0 of 1 fired · dry run, nothing sent

INTC 1 of 1 fired · dry run, nothing sent

ticketwould send (dry run)Webhook → risk-tickets

{
  "type": "limit_breach",
  "limit": "drawdown_20pct_from_52w_high",
  "symbol": "INTC",
  "p_breach": 0.9463,
  "p_still_falling": 0.9324,
  "p_drop10": 0.836,
  "as_of": "2026-10-30"
}

BA 1 of 1 fired · dry run, nothing sent

ticketwould send (dry run)Webhook → risk-tickets

{
  "type": "limit_breach",
  "limit": "drawdown_20pct_from_52w_high",
  "symbol": "BA",
  "p_breach": 0.9296,
  "p_still_falling": 0.8487,
  "p_drop10": 0.426,
  "as_of": "2026-10-30"
}

NKE 1 of 1 fired · dry run, nothing sent

ticketwould send (dry run)Webhook → risk-tickets

{
  "type": "limit_breach",
  "limit": "drawdown_20pct_from_52w_high",
  "symbol": "NKE",
  "p_breach": 0.9463,
  "p_still_falling": 0.0569,
  "p_drop10": 0.602,
  "as_of": "2026-10-30"
}

What it means

Session of 2026-10-30, 4 symbols: More than 20% off the 52-week high: true for INTC, BA, NKE of 4. Is the stock in bear-market territory, more than 20% below its 52-week high: true for INTC, BA, NKE of 4. Is the stock down more than 5% over the last month: true for INTC, BA of 4. Highest odds for “A 10% drawdown within a month”: INTC at 84%. ticket fired for INTC, BA, NKE.

The ticket is raised only on the exact rule; the forecast rides along so the committee sees whether more downside is likely.

Request JSON (PFE; the others differ only in the symbol)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "state": {
    "symbol": "PFE"
  },
  "questions": {
    "dd20": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "C < 0.8 * max(H, 252)"
    },
    "bear": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Is the stock in bear-market territory, more than 20% below its 52-week high?"
    },
    "still_falling": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Is the stock down more than 5% over the last month?"
    },
    "drop10": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will it drop at least 10% at some point in the next month?"
    }
  },
  "actions": [
    {
      "id": "ticket",
      "when": "dd20 >= 0.6",
      "do": "webhook",
      "connection": "risk-tickets",
      "body": {
        "type": "limit_breach",
        "limit": "drawdown_20pct_from_52w_high",
        "symbol": "{{symbol}}",
        "p_breach": "{{dd20}}",
        "p_still_falling": "{{still_falling}}",
        "p_drop10": "{{drop10}}",
        "as_of": "{{as_of}}"
      }
    }
  ],
  "dry_run": true
}

Response JSON (PFE, real)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "answers": {
    "dd20": {
      "yes_no": 0.0537,
      "rule": "C < 0.8 * max(H, 252)",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "bear": {
      "yes_no": 0.0537,
      "rule": "C < 0.8 * max(H, 252)",
      "basis": "pattern"
    },
    "still_falling": {
      "yes_no": 0.0589,
      "rule": "C / C[-21] - 1 < -0.05",
      "basis": "pattern"
    },
    "drop10": {
      "yes_no": 0.418
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "symbol": "PFE",
    "as_of": "2026-10-30"
  },
  "actions": [
    {
      "id": "ticket",
      "fired": false,
      "status": "skipped"
    }
  ]
}

max offset

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Risk manager · example 3

Volatility regime check on SPY for the firm-wide limit

Decide whether the firm is in a calm or stressed regime by checking realized volatility and range expansion on the index.

ora-fin-0.1.1SPY6 questions2 actions

StateSPY
Questions6 asked
Answersreal, captured
Actions2 rules · dry run

State

{"symbol":"SPY"} The server fills in the latest completed session.

Questions

`hv_low`	English → rule	Is 20-day historical volatility below 20%?
`vol5_up`	English → rule	Is 5-day volatility higher than 20-day volatility?
`atr_exp`	rule	`atr(14) > 1.2 * ref(atr(14), -10)` ATR up 20% in two weeks
`range_exp`	rule	`(max(H, 5) - min(L, 5)) > 1.5 * ref(max(H, 5) - min(L, 5), -5)` This week's range is 1.5× last week's
`vol_month`	forecast	Will volatility be higher over the next month? Higher volatility next month
`hv30`	forecast	Will annualized volatility over the next 21 sessions exceed 30%? Next-month volatility above 30%

Answers

Question	Answer	Reading
`hv_low` Is 20-day historical volatility below 20% compiled to `std(log(C / C[-1]), 20) * sqrt(20 / 19) * sqrt(252) < 0.2`	0.9463	true
`vol5_up` Is 5-day volatility higher than 20-day volatility compiled to `std(log(C / C[-1]), 5) * sqrt(5 / 4) > std(log(C / C[-1]), 20) * sqrt(20 / 19)`	0.8872	true
`atr_exp` ATR up 20% in two weeks	0.2117	false
`range_exp` This week's range is 1.5× last week's	0.4679	on the line (false)
`vol_month` Higher volatility next month	0.69	69% · likely
`hv30` Next-month volatility above 30%	0.564	56% · close to even

Actions

Rules on the answers decide what to send.

vol5_up >= 0.6 and atr_exp >= 0.6→Slackrisk-desk

else→Slackrisk-desk

What each action would send 1 of 2 fired · dry run, nothing sent

stressedrule false: skipped

calmwould send (dry run)Slack → risk-desk

{
  "text": "SPY (2026-10-30): no volatility expansion (5d vs 20d 89%, ATR 21%). Limits unchanged."
}

What it means

For SPY on the session of 2026-10-30: True now: Is 20-day historical volatility below 20%; Is 5-day volatility higher than 20-day volatility. Not true: ATR up 20% in two weeks. On the line: This week's range is 1.5× last week's. Forecasts: Higher volatility next month 69%; Next-month volatility above 30% 56%. Fired: calm (Slack → risk-desk).

The regime message sets the day's gross limits; the forecasts say whether the regime is likely to change over the month.

Request JSON

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "state": {
    "symbol": "SPY"
  },
  "questions": {
    "hv_low": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Is 20-day historical volatility below 20%?"
    },
    "vol5_up": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Is 5-day volatility higher than 20-day volatility?"
    },
    "atr_exp": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "atr(14) > 1.2 * ref(atr(14), -10)"
    },
    "range_exp": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "(max(H, 5) - min(L, 5)) > 1.5 * ref(max(H, 5) - min(L, 5), -5)"
    },
    "vol_month": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will volatility be higher over the next month?"
    },
    "hv30": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will annualized volatility over the next 21 sessions exceed 30%?"
    }
  },
  "actions": [
    {
      "id": "stressed",
      "when": "vol5_up >= 0.6 and atr_exp >= 0.6",
      "do": "slack",
      "connection": "risk-desk",
      "message": "SPY ({{as_of}}): short-term volatility above 20-day and ATR expanding. Higher vol next month {{vol_month|pct}}. Tightening gross limits per policy."
    },
    {
      "id": "calm",
      "when": "else",
      "do": "slack",
      "connection": "risk-desk",
      "message": "SPY ({{as_of}}): no volatility expansion (5d vs 20d {{vol5_up|pct}}, ATR {{atr_exp|pct}}). Limits unchanged."
    }
  ],
  "dry_run": true
}

Response JSON (SPY, real)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "answers": {
    "hv_low": {
      "yes_no": 0.9463,
      "rule": "std(log(C / C[-1]), 20) * sqrt(20 / 19) * sqrt(252) < 0.2",
      "basis": "pattern"
    },
    "vol5_up": {
      "yes_no": 0.8872,
      "rule": "std(log(C / C[-1]), 5) * sqrt(5 / 4) > std(log(C / C[-1]), 20) * sqrt(20 / 19)",
      "basis": "pattern"
    },
    "atr_exp": {
      "yes_no": 0.2117,
      "rule": "atr(14) > 1.2 * ref(atr(14), -10)",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "range_exp": {
      "yes_no": 0.4679,
      "rule": "(max(H, 5) - min(L, 5)) > 1.5 * ref(max(H, 5) - min(L, 5), -5)",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "vol_month": {
      "yes_no": 0.69
    },
    "hv30": {
      "yes_no": 0.564
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "symbol": "SPY",
    "as_of": "2026-10-30"
  },
  "actions": [
    {
      "id": "stressed",
      "fired": false,
      "status": "skipped"
    },
    {
      "id": "calm",
      "fired": true,
      "status": "dry_run",
      "do": "slack",
      "connection": "risk-desk",
      "preview": {
        "text": "SPY (2026-10-30): no volatility expansion (5d vs 20d 89%, ATR 21%). Limits unchanged."
      }
    }
  ]
}

atr log max min offset ref sqrt std

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Risk manager · example 4

Return-shock detector across the top positions

Flag any position whose daily return is a two-sigma shock against its own recent history.

ora-fin-0.1.13 symbols, one request each3 questions1 action

State3 symbols
Questions3 asked
Answersreal, captured
Actions1 rule · dry run

State

{"symbol":"AAPL"} then JPM, XOM, one request each. The server fills in the latest completed session.

Questions

`shock`	rule	`zscore(C / C[-1] - 1, 20) < -2` A two-sigma down day
`zret`	rule	`zscore(C / C[-1] - 1, 60) > 2` Daily return more than two sigma above its 60-day mean
`tr_wide`	rule	`tr() > 2 * ref(atr(14), -1)` True range over twice yesterday's ATR

Answers

Symbol	`shock`rule	`zret`rule	`tr_wide`rule	Fired
`AAPL`	0.253	0.0537	0.8247	`shock_alert`
`JPM`	0.5937	0.0537	0.1967	none
`XOM`	0.0537	0.1669	0.0673	none

true false not known for rules; forecasts are odds. Hover a column for its question.

Actions

Rules on the answers decide what to send. Each symbol runs its own request, so each one can fire.

shock >= 0.6 or zret >= 0.6 or tr_wide >= 0.6→Emailrisk-team

AAPL 1 of 1 fired · dry run, nothing sent

shock_alertwould send (dry run)Email → risk-team

{
  "subject": "Return shock: AAPL (2026-10-30)",
  "text": "AAPL moved abnormally: down shock 25%, up shock 5%, true range over 2 ATR 82%. Re-run VaR for books holding it."
}

JPM 0 of 1 fired · dry run, nothing sent

XOM 0 of 1 fired · dry run, nothing sent

What it means

Session of 2026-10-30, 3 symbols: A two-sigma down day: true for none of 3. Daily return more than two sigma above its 60-day mean: true for none of 3. True range over twice yesterday's ATR: true for AAPL of 3. shock_alert fired for AAPL.

Shocks in either direction change position risk; the email asks for a VaR rerun rather than a trade.

Request JSON (AAPL; the others differ only in the symbol)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "state": {
    "symbol": "AAPL"
  },
  "questions": {
    "shock": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "zscore(C / C[-1] - 1, 20) < -2"
    },
    "zret": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "zscore(C / C[-1] - 1, 60) > 2"
    },
    "tr_wide": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "tr() > 2 * ref(atr(14), -1)"
    }
  },
  "actions": [
    {
      "id": "shock_alert",
      "when": "shock >= 0.6 or zret >= 0.6 or tr_wide >= 0.6",
      "do": "email",
      "connection": "risk-team",
      "subject": "Return shock: {{symbol}} ({{as_of}})",
      "message": "{{symbol}} moved abnormally: down shock {{shock|pct}}, up shock {{zret|pct}}, true range over 2 ATR {{tr_wide|pct}}. Re-run VaR for books holding it."
    }
  ],
  "dry_run": true
}

Response JSON (AAPL, real)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "answers": {
    "shock": {
      "yes_no": 0.253,
      "rule": "zscore(C / C[-1] - 1, 20) < -2",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "zret": {
      "yes_no": 0.0537,
      "rule": "zscore(C / C[-1] - 1, 60) > 2",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "tr_wide": {
      "yes_no": 0.8247,
      "rule": "tr() > 2 * ref(atr(14), -1)",
      "basis": "rule"
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "symbol": "AAPL",
    "as_of": "2026-10-30"
  },
  "actions": [
    {
      "id": "shock_alert",
      "fired": true,
      "status": "dry_run",
      "do": "email",
      "connection": "risk-team",
      "preview": {
        "subject": "Return shock: AAPL (2026-10-30)",
        "text": "AAPL moved abnormally: down shock 25%, up shock 5%, true range over 2 ATR 82%. Re-run VaR for books holding it."
      }
    }
  ]
}

atr offset ref tr zscore

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Risk manager · example 5

Event risk: positions reporting within five days

List positions with a report inside five days and a history of large reactions, so event exposure is sized deliberately.

ora-fin-0.1.14 symbols, one request each4 questions

State4 symbols
Questions4 asked
Answersreal, captured
Actionsnone

State

{"symbol":"NFLX"} then TSLA, AMD, MU, one request each. The server fills in the latest completed session.

Questions

`soon`	English → rule	Is earnings in the next 5 days?
`big`	rule	`abs(last_earnings_move) > 5` Last earnings move bigger than 5%
`gap_last`	English → rule	Did the stock gap down more than 2% after its last earnings?
`big_move5`	forecast	Will there be a big move in either direction in the next 5 days? A big move either way in 5 days

Answers

Symbol	`soon`rule	`big`rule	`gap_last`rule	`big_move5`forecast
`NFLX`	0.0537	0.9463	0.9463	0.325
`TSLA`	0.0537	0.0537	0.9463	0.248
`AMD`	0.686	0.9463	0.9463	0.28
`MU`	0.0537	0.0537	0.0537	0.355

true false not known for rules; forecasts are odds. Hover a column for its question.

What it means

Session of 2026-10-30, 4 symbols: Is earnings in the next 5 days: true for AMD of 4. Last earnings move bigger than 5%: true for NFLX, AMD of 4. Did the stock gap down more than 2% after its last earnings: true for NFLX, TSLA, AMD of 4. Highest odds for “A big move either way in 5 days”: MU at 36%.

Names with a report close and a large last reaction carry gap risk that stops cannot protect; those are sized before the print.

Request JSON (NFLX; the others differ only in the symbol)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "state": {
    "symbol": "NFLX"
  },
  "questions": {
    "soon": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Is earnings in the next 5 days?"
    },
    "big": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "abs(last_earnings_move) > 5"
    },
    "gap_last": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Did the stock gap down more than 2% after its last earnings?"
    },
    "big_move5": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will there be a big move in either direction in the next 5 days?"
    }
  }
}

Response JSON (NFLX, real)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "answers": {
    "soon": {
      "yes_no": 0.0537,
      "rule": "days_to_earnings <= 5",
      "basis": "pattern"
    },
    "big": {
      "yes_no": 0.9463,
      "rule": "abs(last_earnings_move) > 5",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "gap_last": {
      "yes_no": 0.9463,
      "rule": "last_earnings_gap < -2",
      "basis": "pattern"
    },
    "big_move5": {
      "yes_no": 0.325
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "symbol": "NFLX",
    "as_of": "2026-10-30"
  }
}

abs days_to_earnings last_earnings_gap last_earnings_move

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Risk manager · example 6

Liquidity check on the small-cap sleeve

Confirm that small-cap and regional bank exposures still trade enough dollar volume to exit in a stress scenario.

ora-fin-0.1.13 symbols, one request each4 questions

State3 symbols
Questions4 asked
Answersreal, captured
Actionsnone

State

{"symbol":"IWM"} then KRE, IJR, one request each. The server fills in the latest completed session.

Questions

`liquid`	rule	`avg(C * V, 20) > 100000000` Trades more than $100 million a day
`dry`	rule	`V < 0.6 * avg(V, 20)` Volume under 60% of normal
`vol_rank`	rule	`percentrank(V, 50) > 90` Volume in the top tenth of 50 sessions
`wide`	rule	`(H - L) > 2 * avg(H - L, 20)` Range more than twice the 20-day average range

Answers

Symbol	`liquid`rule	`dry`rule	`vol_rank`rule	`wide`rule
`IWM`	0.9463	0.0836	0.154	0.1804
`KRE`	0.9463	0.0659	0.3136	0.0628
`IJR`	0.9463	0.1339	0.1077	0.1008

true false not known for rules; forecasts are odds. Hover a column for its question.

What it means

Session of 2026-10-30, 3 symbols: Trades more than $100 million a day: true for IWM, KRE, IJR of 3. Volume under 60% of normal: true for none of 3. Volume in the top tenth of 50 sessions: true for none of 3. Range more than twice the 20-day average range: true for none of 3.

Volume drying up in a sleeve that must be sold fast lengthens the exit; a 90th-percentile volume day can be a forced-selling sign.

Request JSON (IWM; the others differ only in the symbol)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "state": {
    "symbol": "IWM"
  },
  "questions": {
    "liquid": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "avg(C * V, 20) > 100000000"
    },
    "dry": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "V < 0.6 * avg(V, 20)"
    },
    "vol_rank": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "percentrank(V, 50) > 90"
    },
    "wide": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "(H - L) > 2 * avg(H - L, 20)"
    }
  }
}

Response JSON (IWM, real)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "answers": {
    "liquid": {
      "yes_no": 0.9463,
      "rule": "avg(C * V, 20) > 100000000",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "dry": {
      "yes_no": 0.0836,
      "rule": "V < 0.6 * avg(V, 20)",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "vol_rank": {
      "yes_no": 0.154,
      "rule": "percentrank(V, 50) > 90",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "wide": {
      "yes_no": 0.1804,
      "rule": "(H - L) > 2 * avg(H - L, 20)",
      "basis": "rule"
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "symbol": "IWM",
    "as_of": "2026-10-30"
  }
}

avg percentrank

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Risk manager · example 7

Stop discipline on AMD: is the swing-low stop broken?

Enforce the desk's stop policy: exit when price closes under the last swing low or the chandelier stop.

ora-fin-0.1.1AMD5 questions1 action

StateAMD
Questions5 asked
Answersreal, captured
Actions1 rule · dry run

State

{"symbol":"AMD"} The server fills in the latest completed session.

Questions

`below_swing`	rule	`C < swinglow(5, 1)` Closed below the latest swing low
`below_prior_swing`	rule	`C < swinglow(5, 2)` Closed below the swing low before that
`chandelier`	rule	`C < highest(H, 22) - 3 * atr(22)` Chandelier exit: 3 ATR under the 22-day high
`stop_dist`	English → rule	Is a stop below the last swing low less than 1.5 ATR away?
`drop5`	forecast	Will it drop at least 5% at some point in the next month? A 5% drawdown within a month

Answers

Question	Answer	Reading
`below_swing` Closed below the latest swing low	0.4767	on the line (false)
`below_prior_swing` Closed below the swing low before that	0.1313	false
`chandelier` Chandelier exit: 3 ATR under the 22-day high	0.9137	true
`stop_dist` Is a stop below the last swing low less than 1.5 ATR away compiled to `(C > swinglow(5, 1)) and (C - swinglow(5, 1) < 1.5 * atr(14))`	0.5233	on the line (true)
`drop5` A 5% drawdown within a month	0.763	76% · likely

Actions

Rules on the answers decide what to send.

below_swing >= 0.6 or chandelier >= 0.6→Webhookoms

What each action would send 1 of 1 fired · dry run, nothing sent

exitwould send (dry run)Webhook → oms

{
  "symbol": "AMD",
  "decision": "exit_long",
  "policy": "swing_low_or_chandelier",
  "p_swing": 0.4767,
  "p_chandelier": 0.9137,
  "as_of": "2026-10-30"
}

What it means

For AMD on the session of 2026-10-30: True now: Chandelier exit: 3 ATR under the 22-day high. Not true: Closed below the swing low before that. On the line: Closed below the latest swing low; Is a stop below the last swing low less than 1.5 ATR away. Forecasts: A 5% drawdown within a month 76%. Fired: exit (Webhook → oms).

The exit is an exact rule on the close, which keeps the policy mechanical; the forecast is not part of the trigger.

Request JSON

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "state": {
    "symbol": "AMD"
  },
  "questions": {
    "below_swing": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "C < swinglow(5, 1)"
    },
    "below_prior_swing": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "C < swinglow(5, 2)"
    },
    "chandelier": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "C < highest(H, 22) - 3 * atr(22)"
    },
    "stop_dist": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Is a stop below the last swing low less than 1.5 ATR away?"
    },
    "drop5": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will it drop at least 5% at some point in the next month?"
    }
  },
  "actions": [
    {
      "id": "exit",
      "when": "below_swing >= 0.6 or chandelier >= 0.6",
      "do": "webhook",
      "connection": "oms",
      "body": {
        "symbol": "{{symbol}}",
        "decision": "exit_long",
        "policy": "swing_low_or_chandelier",
        "p_swing": "{{below_swing}}",
        "p_chandelier": "{{chandelier}}",
        "as_of": "{{as_of}}"
      }
    }
  ],
  "dry_run": true
}

Response JSON (AMD, real)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "answers": {
    "below_swing": {
      "yes_no": 0.4767,
      "rule": "C < swinglow(5, 1)",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "below_prior_swing": {
      "yes_no": 0.1313,
      "rule": "C < swinglow(5, 2)",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "chandelier": {
      "yes_no": 0.9137,
      "rule": "C < highest(H, 22) - 3 * atr(22)",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "stop_dist": {
      "yes_no": 0.5233,
      "rule": "(C > swinglow(5, 1)) and (C - swinglow(5, 1) < 1.5 * atr(14))",
      "basis": "pattern"
    },
    "drop5": {
      "yes_no": 0.763
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "symbol": "AMD",
    "as_of": "2026-10-30"
  },
  "actions": [
    {
      "id": "exit",
      "fired": true,
      "status": "dry_run",
      "do": "webhook",
      "connection": "oms",
      "preview": {
        "body": {
          "symbol": "AMD",
          "decision": "exit_long",
          "policy": "swing_low_or_chandelier",
          "p_swing": 0.4767,
          "p_chandelier": 0.9137,
          "as_of": "2026-10-30"
        }
      }
    }
  ]
}

atr highest swinglow

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Risk manager · example 8

Credit risk-off signal from high yield

Watch HYG and JNK for breakdowns that often precede equity stress.

ora-fin-0.1.12 symbols, one request each4 questions1 action

State2 symbols
Questions4 asked
Answersreal, captured
Actions1 rule · dry run

State

{"symbol":"HYG"} then JNK, one request each. The server fills in the latest completed session.

Questions

`below_50`	English → rule	Is the stock below its 200-day moving average?
`breakdown`	rule	`C < lowest(L, 20)` Closed under the 20-day low
`cross_dn`	rule	`crossdown(sma(C, 20), sma(C, 50))` 20-day average crossed under the 50-day today
`down_week`	forecast	Will the stock be lower in a week? Lower in a week

Answers

Symbol	`below_50`rule	`breakdown`rule	`cross_dn`rule	`down_week`forecast	Fired
`HYG`	0.8091	0.0811	0.05	0.425	none
`JNK`	0.8478	0.0813	0.05	0.456	none

true false not known for rules; forecasts are odds. Hover a column for its question.

Actions

Rules on the answers decide what to send. Each symbol runs its own request, so each one can fire.

breakdown >= 0.6 or cross_dn >= 0.6→Slackrisk-desk

HYG 0 of 1 fired · dry run, nothing sent

JNK 0 of 1 fired · dry run, nothing sent

What it means

Session of 2026-10-30, 2 symbols: Is the stock below its 200-day moving average: true for HYG, JNK of 2. Closed under the 20-day low: true for none of 2. 20-day average crossed under the 50-day today: true for none of 2. Highest odds for “Lower in a week”: JNK at 46%. risk_off fired for none.

A breakdown in high yield is an early warning that the equity book's beta deserves a second look.

Request JSON (HYG; the others differ only in the symbol)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "state": {
    "symbol": "HYG"
  },
  "questions": {
    "below_50": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Is the stock below its 200-day moving average?"
    },
    "breakdown": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "C < lowest(L, 20)"
    },
    "cross_dn": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "crossdown(sma(C, 20), sma(C, 50))"
    },
    "down_week": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will the stock be lower in a week?"
    }
  },
  "actions": [
    {
      "id": "risk_off",
      "when": "breakdown >= 0.6 or cross_dn >= 0.6",
      "do": "slack",
      "connection": "risk-desk",
      "message": "{{symbol}} ({{as_of}}): high-yield breakdown (20-day low {{breakdown|pct}}, 20/50 cross down {{cross_dn|pct}}). Review equity beta."
    }
  ],
  "dry_run": true
}

Response JSON (HYG, real)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "answers": {
    "below_50": {
      "yes_no": 0.8091,
      "rule": "C < sma(C, 200)",
      "basis": "comparison"
    },
    "breakdown": {
      "yes_no": 0.0811,
      "rule": "C < lowest(L, 20)",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "cross_dn": {
      "yes_no": 0.05,
      "rule": "crossdown(sma(C, 20), sma(C, 50))",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "down_week": {
      "yes_no": 0.425
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "symbol": "HYG",
    "as_of": "2026-10-30"
  },
  "actions": [
    {
      "id": "risk_off",
      "fired": false,
      "status": "skipped"
    }
  ]
}

crossdown lowest sma

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Risk manager · example 9

After-close risk digest for the CRO

Every evening, the same risk questions for the largest exposures, with a message only where something is breached.

ora-fin-0.1.15 symbols, one request each3 questions1 actionworkflow · Mon–Fri at 17:00 ET

ScheduleMon–Fri at 17:00 ET
State5 symbols
Questions3 asked
Answersreal, captured
Actions1 rule · dry run

State

{"symbol":"SPY"} then QQQ, TLT, GLD, USO, one request each. The server fills in the latest completed session.

Questions

`below_200`	English → rule	Is the stock below its 200-day moving average?
`hv`	rule	`std(log(C / C[-1]), 20) * sqrt(252) > 0.4` Annualized 20-day volatility above 40%
`drop5`	forecast	Will it drop at least 5% at some point in the next month? A 5% drawdown within a month

Answers

Symbol	`below_200`rule	`hv`rule	`drop5`forecast	Fired
`SPY`	0.0549	0.0537	0.203	none
`QQQ`	0.2013	0.0537	0.443	none
`TLT`	0.8873	0.0537	0.164	`breach`
`GLD`	0.9463	0.0537	0.435	`breach`
`USO`	0.0537	0.1075	0.615	none

true false not known for rules; forecasts are odds. Hover a column for its question.

Actions

Rules on the answers decide what to send. Each symbol runs its own request, so each one can fire.

below_200 >= 0.6 or hv >= 0.6→Emailcro

SPY 0 of 1 fired · dry run, nothing sent

QQQ 0 of 1 fired · dry run, nothing sent

TLT 1 of 1 fired · dry run, nothing sent

breachwould send (dry run)Email → cro

{
  "subject": "Risk digest: TLT (2026-10-30)",
  "text": "TLT: below 200-day 89%, 20-day vol above 40% 5%, 5% drawdown odds 16%."
}

GLD 1 of 1 fired · dry run, nothing sent

breachwould send (dry run)Email → cro

{
  "subject": "Risk digest: GLD (2026-10-30)",
  "text": "GLD: below 200-day 95%, 20-day vol above 40% 5%, 5% drawdown odds 44%."
}

USO 0 of 1 fired · dry run, nothing sent

What it means

Session of 2026-10-30, 5 symbols: Is the stock below its 200-day moving average: true for TLT, GLD of 5. Annualized 20-day volatility above 40%: true for none of 5. Highest odds for “A 5% drawdown within a month”: USO at 62%. breach fired for TLT, GLD.

The CRO reads only the exposures that broke a trend or volatility threshold; silence means all within policy.

As a scheduled workflow (Mon–Fri at 17:00 ET)

Create it under Workflows in the console: it runs these questions for every symbol on the schedule and fires the actions per symbol. The answers above are what one run returned.

{
  "name": "After-close risk digest for the CRO",
  "symbols": "SPY QQQ TLT GLD USO",
  "days": [
    1,
    2,
    3,
    4,
    5
  ],
  "at_time": "17:00",
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "questions": {
    "below_200": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Is the stock below its 200-day moving average?"
    },
    "hv": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "std(log(C / C[-1]), 20) * sqrt(252) > 0.4"
    },
    "drop5": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will it drop at least 5% at some point in the next month?"
    }
  },
  "actions": [
    {
      "id": "breach",
      "when": "below_200 >= 0.6 or hv >= 0.6",
      "do": "email",
      "connection": "cro",
      "subject": "Risk digest: {{symbol}} ({{as_of}})",
      "message": "{{symbol}}: below 200-day {{below_200|pct}}, 20-day vol above 40% {{hv|pct}}, 5% drawdown odds {{drop5|pct}}."
    }
  ]
}

Request JSON (SPY; the others differ only in the symbol)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "state": {
    "symbol": "SPY"
  },
  "questions": {
    "below_200": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Is the stock below its 200-day moving average?"
    },
    "hv": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "std(log(C / C[-1]), 20) * sqrt(252) > 0.4"
    },
    "drop5": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will it drop at least 5% at some point in the next month?"
    }
  },
  "actions": [
    {
      "id": "breach",
      "when": "below_200 >= 0.6 or hv >= 0.6",
      "do": "email",
      "connection": "cro",
      "subject": "Risk digest: {{symbol}} ({{as_of}})",
      "message": "{{symbol}}: below 200-day {{below_200|pct}}, 20-day vol above 40% {{hv|pct}}, 5% drawdown odds {{drop5|pct}}."
    }
  ],
  "dry_run": true
}

Response JSON (SPY, real)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "answers": {
    "below_200": {
      "yes_no": 0.0549,
      "rule": "C < sma(C, 200)",
      "basis": "comparison"
    },
    "hv": {
      "yes_no": 0.0537,
      "rule": "std(log(C / C[-1]), 20) * sqrt(252) > 0.4",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "drop5": {
      "yes_no": 0.203
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "symbol": "SPY",
    "as_of": "2026-10-30"
  },
  "actions": [
    {
      "id": "breach",
      "fired": false,
      "status": "skipped"
    }
  ]
}

log offset sma sqrt std

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Risk manager · example 10

Leveraged ETF exposure: TQQQ and SQQQ volatility drag

Leveraged funds lose value in choppy markets; check volatility and direction before the desk holds them overnight.

ora-fin-0.1.12 symbols, one request each4 questions

State2 symbols
Questions4 asked
Answersreal, captured
Actionsnone

State

{"symbol":"TQQQ"} then SQQQ, one request each. The server fills in the latest completed session.

Questions

`atr`	rule	`atr_pct(14) > 4` ATR over 4% of price
`chop`	rule	`between(adx(14), 0, 20)` ADX under 20 (no trend)
`hv`	rule	`std(log(C / C[-1]), 20) * sqrt(252) > 0.6` 20-day realized volatility above 60%
`vol_rise`	forecast	Will volatility rise over the next 5 days? Volatility rising over 5 days

Answers

Symbol	`atr`rule	`chop`rule	`hv`rule	`vol_rise`forecast
`TQQQ`	0.9463	0.05	0.8054	0.427
`SQQQ`	0.8271	0.05	0.702	0.232

true false not known for rules; forecasts are odds. Hover a column for its question.

What it means

Session of 2026-10-30, 2 symbols: ATR over 4% of price: true for TQQQ, SQQQ of 2. ADX under 20 (no trend): true for none of 2. 20-day realized volatility above 60%: true for TQQQ, SQQQ of 2. Highest odds for “Volatility rising over 5 days”: TQQQ at 43%.

High volatility with no trend is the worst case for a leveraged fund; the desk caps overnight holdings when both are true.

Request JSON (TQQQ; the others differ only in the symbol)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "state": {
    "symbol": "TQQQ"
  },
  "questions": {
    "atr": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "atr_pct(14) > 4"
    },
    "chop": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "between(adx(14), 0, 20)"
    },
    "hv": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "std(log(C / C[-1]), 20) * sqrt(252) > 0.6"
    },
    "vol_rise": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will volatility rise over the next 5 days?"
    }
  }
}

Response JSON (TQQQ, real)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "answers": {
    "atr": {
      "yes_no": 0.9463,
      "rule": "atr_pct(14) > 4",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "chop": {
      "yes_no": 0.05,
      "rule": "between(adx(14), 0, 20)",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "hv": {
      "yes_no": 0.8054,
      "rule": "std(log(C / C[-1]), 20) * sqrt(252) > 0.6",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "vol_rise": {
      "yes_no": 0.427
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "symbol": "TQQQ",
    "as_of": "2026-10-30"
  }
}

adx atr_pct between log offset sqrt std

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Information, not investment advice. Rules answer from the latest completed daily session; forecasts are probabilities. Actions ran as dry runs: nothing was sent. More in Buy side: Financial advisor / RIA, Wealth manager, Family office, Hedge fund PM, Quant researcher, Portfolio manager (long-only), Private equity, VC / growth investor, Fund-of-funds allocator.

Create an account Open the Playground Everything here also lives in the console, next to your keys and usage.

Individuals

Buy side

Sell side

Corporates

Builders

Institutions

Pre-trade risk gate on a TSLA buy: block, reduce or allow

State

Questions

Answers

Actions

What it means

Drawdown limit breach opens a ticket

State

Questions

Answers

Actions

What it means

Volatility regime check on SPY for the firm-wide limit

State

Questions

Answers

Actions

What it means

Return-shock detector across the top positions

State

Questions

Answers

Actions

What it means

Event risk: positions reporting within five days

State

Questions

Answers

What it means

Liquidity check on the small-cap sleeve

State

Questions

Answers

What it means

Stop discipline on AMD: is the swing-low stop broken?

State

Questions

Answers

Actions

What it means

Credit risk-off signal from high yield

State

Questions

Answers

Actions

What it means

After-close risk digest for the CRO

State

Questions

Answers

Actions

What it means

Leveraged ETF exposure: TQQQ and SQQQ volatility drag

State

Questions

Answers

What it means