Model

Use cases · Institutions

Insurance investment office: 20 ways to use Ora

Liability-aware portfolios: rates, credit, income and drawdown limits. Each example is a complete, runnable request with the real answers it returned (32 requests, captured 2026-10-31), what they mean and, where it fits, the action it would send.

Run withAnswers were captured on ora-fin-0.1.1. Another model changes the request JSON and the Playground link; run it there to see its answers.

Rule functions and facts used by this player (44)

sma 11 offset 8 ref 7 rsi 4 atr 4 highest 3 log 3 abs 3 avg 2 ema 2 max 2 div_yield_ttm 2 sqrt 2 std 2 last_earnings_move 2 min 2 sum 2 linreg 1 macd 1 macdsignal 1 lowest 1 cut_last 1 pays_dividend 1 years_of_growth 1 evening_star 1 harami_bear 1 cci 1 miss_eps_last 1 misses_last4 1 gravestone_doji 1 shooting_star 1 between 1 engulfing_bull 1 morning_star 1 piercing_line 1 days_to_earnings 1 roc 1 atr_pct 1 three_white_soldiers 1 doji 1 hammer 1 hanging_man 1 outside_bar 1 sign 1

Examples 1–10 of 20 · page 1 of 2

Insurance investment office · example 1

TLT: is the duration trend turning for the ALM desk?

Asset-liability matching depends on rates. Read the trend in long Treasuries before the monthly ALM meeting.

ora-fin-0.1.1TLT5 questions

StateTLT
Questions5 asked
Answersreal, captured
Actionsnone

State

{"symbol":"TLT"} The server fills in the latest completed session.

Questions

`trend`	rule	`C > sma(C, 50)` Above the 50-day average
`long`	English → rule	Is the stock above its 200-day moving average?
`macd`	English → rule	Is the MACD line above its signal line?
`linreg`	rule	`linreg(C, 50) > ref(linreg(C, 50), -10)` 50-day regression line higher than two weeks ago
`up_week`	forecast	Will the stock be higher in a week? Higher in a week

Answers

Question	Answer	Reading
`trend` Above the 50-day average	0.8482	true
`long` Is the stock above its 200-day moving average compiled to `C > sma(C, 200)`	0.1127	false
`macd` Is the MACD line above its signal line compiled to `macd(C) > macdsignal(C)`	0.9084	true
`linreg` 50-day regression line higher than two weeks ago	0.8753	true
`up_week` Higher in a week	0.561	56% · close to even

What it means

For TLT on the session of 2026-10-30: True now: Above the 50-day average; Is the MACD line above its signal line; 50-day regression line higher than two weeks ago. Not true: Is the stock above its 200-day moving average. Forecasts: Higher in a week 56%.

Rising bond prices mean falling yields, which lifts the value of long liabilities too; the desk uses the trend read to frame the duration-gap discussion.

Request JSON

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "state": {
    "symbol": "TLT"
  },
  "questions": {
    "trend": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "C > sma(C, 50)"
    },
    "long": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Is the stock above its 200-day moving average?"
    },
    "macd": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Is the MACD line above its signal line?"
    },
    "linreg": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "linreg(C, 50) > ref(linreg(C, 50), -10)"
    },
    "up_week": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will the stock be higher in a week?"
    }
  }
}

Response JSON (TLT, real)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "answers": {
    "trend": {
      "yes_no": 0.8482,
      "rule": "C > sma(C, 50)",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "long": {
      "yes_no": 0.1127,
      "rule": "C > sma(C, 200)",
      "basis": "comparison"
    },
    "macd": {
      "yes_no": 0.9084,
      "rule": "macd(C) > macdsignal(C)",
      "basis": "comparison"
    },
    "linreg": {
      "yes_no": 0.8753,
      "rule": "linreg(C, 50) > ref(linreg(C, 50), -10)",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "up_week": {
      "yes_no": 0.561
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "symbol": "TLT",
    "as_of": "2026-10-30"
  }
}

linreg macd macdsignal ref sma

Try it in the Playground

Insurance investment office · example 2

HYG vs LQD: is credit risk appetite fading?

High yield weakening while investment grade holds is an early credit warning. Compare the two bond funds on the same rules.

ora-fin-0.1.12 symbols, one request each4 questions1 action

State2 symbols
Questions4 asked
Answersreal, captured
Actions1 rule · dry run

State

{"symbol":"HYG"} then LQD, one request each. The server fills in the latest completed session.

Questions

`trend`	rule	`C > sma(C, 50)` Above the 50-day average
`breakdown`	rule	`C < lowest(L, 20)` Closed under the 20-day low
`down_vol`	rule	`C < C[-1] and V > 1.5 * ref(avg(V, 20), -1)` Down on heavy volume
`drop5`	forecast	Will it drop at least 5% at some point in the next month? A 5% drawdown within a month

Answers

Symbol	`trend`rule	`breakdown`rule	`down_vol`rule	`drop5`forecast	Fired
`HYG`	0.1914	0.0811	0.1932	0.009	none
`LQD`	0.6552	0.0537	0.1547	0.022	none

true false not known for rules; forecasts are odds. Hover a column for its question.

Actions

Rules on the answers decide what to send. Each symbol runs its own request, so each one can fire.

breakdown >= 0.6→Emailcredit-committee

HYG 0 of 1 fired · dry run, nothing sent

LQD 0 of 1 fired · dry run, nothing sent

What it means

Session of 2026-10-30, 2 symbols: Above the 50-day average: true for LQD of 2. Closed under the 20-day low: true for none of 2. Down on heavy volume: true for none of 2. Highest odds for “A 5% drawdown within a month”: LQD at 2%. credit_warning fired for none.

A breakdown in HYG without one in LQD is the classic spread-widening signal; the committee reviews before any reallocation.

Request JSON (HYG; the others differ only in the symbol)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "state": {
    "symbol": "HYG"
  },
  "questions": {
    "trend": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "C > sma(C, 50)"
    },
    "breakdown": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "C < lowest(L, 20)"
    },
    "down_vol": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "C < C[-1] and V > 1.5 * ref(avg(V, 20), -1)"
    },
    "drop5": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will it drop at least 5% at some point in the next month?"
    }
  },
  "actions": [
    {
      "id": "credit_warning",
      "when": "breakdown >= 0.6",
      "do": "email",
      "connection": "credit-committee",
      "subject": "{{symbol}} broke its 20-day low ({{as_of}})",
      "message": "{{symbol}} closed under its 20-day low (rule {{breakdown|pct}}), down on volume {{down_vol|pct}}. Review credit-risk budget usage."
    }
  ],
  "dry_run": true
}

Response JSON (HYG, real)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "answers": {
    "trend": {
      "yes_no": 0.1914,
      "rule": "C > sma(C, 50)",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "breakdown": {
      "yes_no": 0.0811,
      "rule": "C < lowest(L, 20)",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "down_vol": {
      "yes_no": 0.1932,
      "rule": "C < C[-1] and V > 1.5 * ref(avg(V, 20), -1)",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "drop5": {
      "yes_no": 0.009
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "symbol": "HYG",
    "as_of": "2026-10-30"
  },
  "actions": [
    {
      "id": "credit_warning",
      "fired": false,
      "status": "skipped"
    }
  ]
}

avg lowest offset ref sma

Try it in the Playground

Insurance investment office · example 3

TIP: is the inflation hedge working?

Check the inflation-linked bond fund's trend and momentum for the quarterly inflation-risk report.

ora-fin-0.1.1TIP5 questions1 action

StateTIP
Questions5 asked
Answersreal, captured
Actions1 rule · dry run

State

{"symbol":"TIP"} The server fills in the latest completed session.

Questions

`trend`	English → rule	Is the stock above its 200-day moving average?
`sma50_up`	rule	`sma(C, 50) > ref(sma(C, 50), -10)` The 50-day average is rising
`rsi50`	rule	`rsi(C, 14) > 50` RSI above 50
`ema`	rule	`C > ema(C, 50)` Above its 50-day exponential average
`vol_up`	forecast	Will volatility be higher over the next month? Higher volatility next month

Answers

Question	Answer	Reading
`trend` Is the stock above its 200-day moving average compiled to `C > sma(C, 200)`	0.3682	false
`sma50_up` The 50-day average is rising	0.1203	false
`rsi50` RSI above 50	0.9112	true
`ema` Above its 50-day exponential average	0.866	true
`vol_up` Higher volatility next month	0.52	52% · close to even

Actions

Rules on the answers decide what to send.

trend >= 0→Emailinvestment-committee

What each action would send 1 of 1 fired · dry run, nothing sent

hedge_reportwould send (dry run)Email → investment-committee

{
  "subject": "TIP inflation hedge read (2026-10-30)",
  "text": "TIP: above the 200-day 37%, 50-day rising 12%, above the 50-day EMA 87%. Higher volatility next month: 52%."
}

What it means

For TIP on the session of 2026-10-30: True now: RSI above 50; Above its 50-day exponential average. Not true: Is the stock above its 200-day moving average; The 50-day average is rising. Forecasts: Higher volatility next month 52%. Fired: hedge_report (Email → investment-committee).

Trend rules true mean the hedge has been adding value lately; the report states the facts and leaves the hedge ratio to the committee.

Request JSON

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "state": {
    "symbol": "TIP"
  },
  "questions": {
    "trend": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Is the stock above its 200-day moving average?"
    },
    "sma50_up": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "sma(C, 50) > ref(sma(C, 50), -10)"
    },
    "rsi50": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "rsi(C, 14) > 50"
    },
    "ema": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "C > ema(C, 50)"
    },
    "vol_up": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will volatility be higher over the next month?"
    }
  },
  "actions": [
    {
      "id": "hedge_report",
      "when": "trend >= 0",
      "do": "email",
      "connection": "investment-committee",
      "subject": "{{symbol}} inflation hedge read ({{as_of}})",
      "message": "{{symbol}}: above the 200-day {{trend|pct}}, 50-day rising {{sma50_up|pct}}, above the 50-day EMA {{ema|pct}}. Higher volatility next month: {{vol_up|pct}}."
    }
  ],
  "dry_run": true
}

Response JSON (TIP, real)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "answers": {
    "trend": {
      "yes_no": 0.3682,
      "rule": "C > sma(C, 200)",
      "basis": "comparison"
    },
    "sma50_up": {
      "yes_no": 0.1203,
      "rule": "sma(C, 50) > ref(sma(C, 50), -10)",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "rsi50": {
      "yes_no": 0.9112,
      "rule": "rsi(C, 14) > 50",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "ema": {
      "yes_no": 0.866,
      "rule": "C > ema(C, 50)",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "vol_up": {
      "yes_no": 0.52
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "symbol": "TIP",
    "as_of": "2026-10-30"
  },
  "actions": [
    {
      "id": "hedge_report",
      "fired": true,
      "status": "dry_run",
      "do": "email",
      "connection": "investment-committee",
      "preview": {
        "subject": "TIP inflation hedge read (2026-10-30)",
        "text": "TIP: above the 200-day 37%, 50-day rising 12%, above the 50-day EMA 87%. Higher volatility next month: 52%."
      }
    }
  ]
}

ema ref rsi sma

Try it in the Playground

Insurance investment office · example 4

Equity sleeve drawdown limit: VTI

Regulatory capital charges rise with equity risk. Alert the CIO if the US equity fund is in a 20% drawdown or falling fast.

ora-fin-0.1.1VTI4 questions2 actions

StateVTI
Questions4 asked
Answersreal, captured
Actions2 rules · dry run

State

{"symbol":"VTI"} The server fills in the latest completed session.

Questions

`drawdown`	rule	`C < 0.8 * max(H, 252)` More than 20% off the 52-week high
`down5`	English → rule	Is the stock down more than 5% over the last month?
`chandelier`	rule	`C < highest(H, 22) - 3 * atr(22)` Chandelier exit: 3 ATR under the 22-day high
`drop10`	forecast	Will it drop at least 10% at some point in the next month? A 10% drawdown within a month

Answers

Question	Answer	Reading
`drawdown` More than 20% off the 52-week high	0.0537	false
`down5` Is the stock down more than 5% over the last month compiled to `C / C[-21] - 1 < -0.05`	0.0662	false
`chandelier` Chandelier exit: 3 ATR under the 22-day high	0.6764	true
`drop10` A 10% drawdown within a month	0.189	19% · unlikely

Actions

Rules on the answers decide what to send.

drawdown >= 0.6→Emailcio

down5 >= 0.6 or chandelier >= 0.6→Slackinvestment-office

What each action would send 1 of 2 fired · dry run, nothing sent

limit_breachrule false: skipped

warningwould send (dry run)Slack → investment-office

{
  "text": "VTI (2026-10-30): down over 5% this month (7%) or below its chandelier stop (68%). Watch the limit."
}

What it means

For VTI on the session of 2026-10-30: True now: Chandelier exit: 3 ATR under the 22-day high. Not true: More than 20% off the 52-week high; Is the stock down more than 5% over the last month. Forecasts: A 10% drawdown within a month 19%. Fired: warning (Slack → investment-office).

The limit email needs the drawdown fact; the earlier warning goes to the team channel so nobody is surprised at month end.

Request JSON

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "state": {
    "symbol": "VTI"
  },
  "questions": {
    "drawdown": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "C < 0.8 * max(H, 252)"
    },
    "down5": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Is the stock down more than 5% over the last month?"
    },
    "chandelier": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "C < highest(H, 22) - 3 * atr(22)"
    },
    "drop10": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will it drop at least 10% at some point in the next month?"
    }
  },
  "actions": [
    {
      "id": "limit_breach",
      "when": "drawdown >= 0.6",
      "do": "email",
      "connection": "cio",
      "subject": "{{symbol}}: equity drawdown limit ({{as_of}})",
      "message": "{{symbol}} is more than 20% below its 52-week high. 10% further drawdown odds: {{drop10|pct}}. Capital-charge review needed."
    },
    {
      "id": "warning",
      "when": "down5 >= 0.6 or chandelier >= 0.6",
      "do": "slack",
      "connection": "investment-office",
      "message": "{{symbol}} ({{as_of}}): down over 5% this month ({{down5|pct}}) or below its chandelier stop ({{chandelier|pct}}). Watch the limit."
    }
  ],
  "dry_run": true
}

Response JSON (VTI, real)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "answers": {
    "drawdown": {
      "yes_no": 0.0537,
      "rule": "C < 0.8 * max(H, 252)",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "down5": {
      "yes_no": 0.0662,
      "rule": "C / C[-21] - 1 < -0.05",
      "basis": "pattern"
    },
    "chandelier": {
      "yes_no": 0.6764,
      "rule": "C < highest(H, 22) - 3 * atr(22)",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "drop10": {
      "yes_no": 0.189
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "symbol": "VTI",
    "as_of": "2026-10-30"
  },
  "actions": [
    {
      "id": "limit_breach",
      "fired": false,
      "status": "skipped"
    },
    {
      "id": "warning",
      "fired": true,
      "status": "dry_run",
      "do": "slack",
      "connection": "investment-office",
      "preview": {
        "text": "VTI (2026-10-30): down over 5% this month (7%) or below its chandelier stop (68%). Watch the limit."
      }
    }
  ]
}

atr highest max offset

Try it in the Playground

Insurance investment office · example 5

Dividend payer for the general account: is JNJ still paying and growing?

The general account holds dividend payers for steady income. Confirm this one still pays, grows and has not cut.

ora-fin-0.1.1JNJ5 questions

StateJNJ
Questions5 asked
Answersreal, captured
Actionsnone

State

{"symbol":"JNJ"} The server fills in the latest completed session.

Questions

`pays`	rule	`pays_dividend > 0.5` Pays a dividend
`grower`	rule	`years_of_growth >= 10` Ten years of dividend growth
`cut`	English → rule	Did the stock cut its dividend last time?
`yield3`	English → rule	Is the dividend yield above 3%?
`raise_next`	forecast	Will the company raise its dividend next year? Raising the dividend next year

Answers

Question	Answer	Reading
`pays` Pays a dividend	0.8591	true
`grower` Ten years of dividend growth	0.9463	true
`cut` Did the stock cut its dividend last time compiled to `cut_last > 0.5`	0.1409	false
`yield3` Is the dividend yield above 3% compiled to `div_yield_ttm > 3`	0.0648	false
`raise_next` Raising the dividend next year	0.495	50% · close to even

What it means

For JNJ on the session of 2026-10-30: True now: Pays a dividend; Ten years of dividend growth. Not true: Did the stock cut its dividend last time; Is the dividend yield above 3%. Forecasts: Raising the dividend next year 50%.

Payout facts come from the dividend record; a cut would trigger a review of the income budget, the forecast is context only.

Request JSON

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "state": {
    "symbol": "JNJ"
  },
  "questions": {
    "pays": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "pays_dividend > 0.5"
    },
    "grower": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "years_of_growth >= 10"
    },
    "cut": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Did the stock cut its dividend last time?"
    },
    "yield3": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Is the dividend yield above 3%?"
    },
    "raise_next": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will the company raise its dividend next year?"
    }
  }
}

Response JSON (JNJ, real)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "answers": {
    "pays": {
      "yes_no": 0.8591,
      "rule": "pays_dividend > 0.5",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "grower": {
      "yes_no": 0.9463,
      "rule": "years_of_growth >= 10",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "cut": {
      "yes_no": 0.1409,
      "rule": "cut_last > 0.5",
      "basis": "pattern"
    },
    "yield3": {
      "yes_no": 0.0648,
      "rule": "div_yield_ttm > 3",
      "basis": "pattern"
    },
    "raise_next": {
      "yes_no": 0.495
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "symbol": "JNJ",
    "as_of": "2026-10-30"
  }
}

cut_last div_yield_ttm pays_dividend years_of_growth

Try it in the Playground

Insurance investment office · example 6

VNQ: real-estate sleeve health

Insurers hold real estate for long-dated income. Check REIT trend, income and a possible top pattern.

ora-fin-0.1.1VNQ5 questions

StateVNQ
Questions5 asked
Answersreal, captured
Actionsnone

State

{"symbol":"VNQ"} The server fills in the latest completed session.

Questions

`trend`	English → rule	Is the stock above its 200-day moving average?
`yield3`	rule	`div_yield_ttm > 3` Yield above 3%
`evening`	rule	`evening_star()` evening star candle: A green bar, a small bar that stays above its close, then a red bar closing below the middle of the first.
`harami_bear`	rule	`harami_bear()` harami bear candle: A small red body inside yesterday's green body.
`drop5`	forecast	Will it drop at least 5% at some point in the next month? A 5% drawdown within a month

Answers

Question	Answer	Reading
`trend` Is the stock above its 200-day moving average compiled to `C > sma(C, 200)`	0.6285	true
`yield3` Yield above 3%	0.8893	true
`evening` evening star candle: A green bar, a small bar that stays above its close, then a red bar closing below the middle of the first.	0.0581	false
`harami_bear` harami bear candle: A small red body inside yesterday's green body.	0.0856	false
`drop5` A 5% drawdown within a month	0.218	22% · unlikely

What it means

For VNQ on the session of 2026-10-30: True now: Is the stock above its 200-day moving average; Yield above 3%. Not true: evening star candle: A green bar, a small bar that stays above its close, then a red bar closing below the middle of the first.; harami bear candle: A small red body inside yesterday's green body.. Forecasts: A 5% drawdown within a month 22%.

A bearish three-bar or harami pattern after a rise is a caution for the quarterly review, not a sale on its own.

Request JSON

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "state": {
    "symbol": "VNQ"
  },
  "questions": {
    "trend": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Is the stock above its 200-day moving average?"
    },
    "yield3": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "div_yield_ttm > 3"
    },
    "evening": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "evening_star()"
    },
    "harami_bear": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "harami_bear()"
    },
    "drop5": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will it drop at least 5% at some point in the next month?"
    }
  }
}

Response JSON (VNQ, real)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "answers": {
    "trend": {
      "yes_no": 0.6285,
      "rule": "C > sma(C, 200)",
      "basis": "comparison"
    },
    "yield3": {
      "yes_no": 0.8893,
      "rule": "div_yield_ttm > 3",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "evening": {
      "yes_no": 0.0581,
      "rule": "evening_star()",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "harami_bear": {
      "yes_no": 0.0856,
      "rule": "harami_bear()",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "drop5": {
      "yes_no": 0.218
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "symbol": "VNQ",
    "as_of": "2026-10-30"
  }
}

div_yield_ttm evening_star harami_bear sma

Try it in the Playground

Insurance investment office · example 7

Volatility regime check on SPY before rebalancing

Rebalance into equities in calm regimes, wait in turbulent ones. Read SPY's realized volatility and expansion before the trade.

ora-fin-0.1.1SPY5 questions2 actions

StateSPY
Questions5 asked
Answersreal, captured
Actions2 rules · dry run

State

{"symbol":"SPY"} The server fills in the latest completed session.

Questions

`hv_low`	English → rule	Is 20-day historical volatility below 20%?
`vol5`	English → rule	Is 5-day volatility higher than 20-day volatility?
`atr_exp`	rule	`atr(14) > 1.2 * ref(atr(14), -10)` ATR up 20% in two weeks
`vol_rise`	forecast	Will volatility rise over the next 5 days? Volatility rising over 5 days
`hv30`	forecast	Will annualized volatility over the next 21 sessions exceed 30%? Next-month volatility above 30%

Answers

Question	Answer	Reading
`hv_low` Is 20-day historical volatility below 20% compiled to `std(log(C / C[-1]), 20) * sqrt(20 / 19) * sqrt(252) < 0.2`	0.9463	true
`vol5` Is 5-day volatility higher than 20-day volatility compiled to `std(log(C / C[-1]), 5) * sqrt(5 / 4) > std(log(C / C[-1]), 20) * sqrt(20 / 19)`	0.8872	true
`atr_exp` ATR up 20% in two weeks	0.2117	false
`vol_rise` Volatility rising over 5 days	0.558	56% · close to even
`hv30` Next-month volatility above 30%	0.564	56% · close to even

Actions

Rules on the answers decide what to send.

hv_low >= 0.6 and vol_rise < 0.6→Webhookrebalancing-system

else→Slackinvestment-office

What each action would send 1 of 2 fired · dry run, nothing sent

gowould send (dry run)Webhook → rebalancing-system

{
  "ticket": "rebalance_equity",
  "underlying": "SPY",
  "as_of": "2026-10-30",
  "regime": "calm",
  "p_hv_low": 0.9463,
  "p_vol_rise": 0.558
}

waitrule false: skipped

What it means

For SPY on the session of 2026-10-30: True now: Is 20-day historical volatility below 20%; Is 5-day volatility higher than 20-day volatility. Not true: ATR up 20% in two weeks. Forecasts: Volatility rising over 5 days 56%; Next-month volatility above 30% 56%. Fired: go (Webhook → rebalancing-system).

The ticket only opens in a calm regime with no rising-volatility forecast; otherwise the team waits and the channel says why.

Request JSON

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "state": {
    "symbol": "SPY"
  },
  "questions": {
    "hv_low": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Is 20-day historical volatility below 20%?"
    },
    "vol5": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Is 5-day volatility higher than 20-day volatility?"
    },
    "atr_exp": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "atr(14) > 1.2 * ref(atr(14), -10)"
    },
    "vol_rise": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will volatility rise over the next 5 days?"
    },
    "hv30": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will annualized volatility over the next 21 sessions exceed 30%?"
    }
  },
  "actions": [
    {
      "id": "go",
      "when": "hv_low >= 0.6 and vol_rise < 0.6",
      "do": "webhook",
      "connection": "rebalancing-system",
      "body": {
        "ticket": "rebalance_equity",
        "underlying": "{{symbol}}",
        "as_of": "{{as_of}}",
        "regime": "calm",
        "p_hv_low": "{{hv_low}}",
        "p_vol_rise": "{{vol_rise}}"
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "wait",
      "when": "else",
      "do": "slack",
      "connection": "investment-office",
      "message": "{{symbol}} ({{as_of}}): volatility not calm (20-day under 20% {{hv_low|pct}}, rising over 5 days {{vol_rise|pct}}). Hold the rebalance."
    }
  ],
  "dry_run": true
}

Response JSON (SPY, real)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "answers": {
    "hv_low": {
      "yes_no": 0.9463,
      "rule": "std(log(C / C[-1]), 20) * sqrt(20 / 19) * sqrt(252) < 0.2",
      "basis": "pattern"
    },
    "vol5": {
      "yes_no": 0.8872,
      "rule": "std(log(C / C[-1]), 5) * sqrt(5 / 4) > std(log(C / C[-1]), 20) * sqrt(20 / 19)",
      "basis": "pattern"
    },
    "atr_exp": {
      "yes_no": 0.2117,
      "rule": "atr(14) > 1.2 * ref(atr(14), -10)",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "vol_rise": {
      "yes_no": 0.558
    },
    "hv30": {
      "yes_no": 0.564
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "symbol": "SPY",
    "as_of": "2026-10-30"
  },
  "actions": [
    {
      "id": "go",
      "fired": true,
      "status": "dry_run",
      "do": "webhook",
      "connection": "rebalancing-system",
      "preview": {
        "body": {
          "ticket": "rebalance_equity",
          "underlying": "SPY",
          "as_of": "2026-10-30",
          "regime": "calm",
          "p_hv_low": 0.9463,
          "p_vol_rise": 0.558
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "wait",
      "fired": false,
      "status": "skipped"
    }
  ]
}

atr log offset ref sqrt std

Try it in the Playground

Insurance investment office · example 8

EMB: emerging-market debt risk read

Emerging-market bonds are a yield pickup with currency risk. Check trend, breakout and momentum on the EM debt fund.

ora-fin-0.1.1EMB5 questions

StateEMB
Questions5 asked
Answersreal, captured
Actionsnone

State

{"symbol":"EMB"} The server fills in the latest completed session.

Questions

`trend`	rule	`C > sma(C, 50)` Above the 50-day average
`rsi50`	rule	`rsi(C, 14) > 50` RSI above 50
`breakout`	rule	`C > highest(C, 20)` 20-day closing breakout
`cci`	rule	`cci(20) < -100` CCI below -100 (weak relative to its mean)
`up_week`	forecast	Will the stock be higher in a week? Higher in a week

Answers

Question	Answer	Reading
`trend` Above the 50-day average	0.2584	false
`rsi50` RSI above 50	0.6777	true
`breakout` 20-day closing breakout	0.3984	false
`cci` CCI below -100 (weak relative to its mean)	0.0649	false
`up_week` Higher in a week	0.51	51% · close to even

What it means

For EMB on the session of 2026-10-30: True now: RSI above 50. Not true: Above the 50-day average; 20-day closing breakout; CCI below -100 (weak relative to its mean). Forecasts: Higher in a week 51%.

EMB below its 50-day with weak CCI is the picture that pressures the allocation; the desk reviews it with the dollar trend from the FX team.

Request JSON

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "state": {
    "symbol": "EMB"
  },
  "questions": {
    "trend": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "C > sma(C, 50)"
    },
    "rsi50": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "rsi(C, 14) > 50"
    },
    "breakout": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "C > highest(C, 20)"
    },
    "cci": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "cci(20) < -100"
    },
    "up_week": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will the stock be higher in a week?"
    }
  }
}

Response JSON (EMB, real)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "answers": {
    "trend": {
      "yes_no": 0.2584,
      "rule": "C > sma(C, 50)",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "rsi50": {
      "yes_no": 0.6777,
      "rule": "rsi(C, 14) > 50",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "breakout": {
      "yes_no": 0.3984,
      "rule": "C > highest(C, 20)",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "cci": {
      "yes_no": 0.0649,
      "rule": "cci(20) < -100",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "up_week": {
      "yes_no": 0.51
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "symbol": "EMB",
    "as_of": "2026-10-30"
  }
}

cci highest rsi sma

Try it in the Playground

Insurance investment office · example 9

Weekly ALM digest: bonds, credit and equities

Every Friday after the close, the investment office gets one trend row per core fund for the ALM pack.

ora-fin-0.1.14 symbols, one request each3 questions1 actionworkflow · Fri at 17:00 ET

ScheduleFri at 17:00 ET
State4 symbols
Questions3 asked
Answersreal, captured
Actions1 rule · dry run

State

{"symbol":"TLT"} then LQD, HYG, VTI, one request each. The server fills in the latest completed session.

Questions

`trend`	rule	`C > sma(C, 50)` Above the 50-day average
`long`	English → rule	Is the stock above its 200-day moving average?
`drop5`	forecast	Will it drop at least 5% at some point in the next month? A 5% drawdown within a month

Answers

Symbol	`trend`rule	`long`rule	`drop5`forecast	Fired
`TLT`	0.8482	0.1127	0.164	`pack_row`
`LQD`	0.6552	0.0841	0.022	`pack_row`
`HYG`	0.1914	0.1909	0.009	`pack_row`
`VTI`	0.1242	0.9415	0.187	`pack_row`

true false not known for rules; forecasts are odds. Hover a column for its question.

Actions

Rules on the answers decide what to send. Each symbol runs its own request, so each one can fire.

trend >= 0→Webhookalm-pack

TLT 1 of 1 fired · dry run, nothing sent

pack_rowwould send (dry run)Webhook → alm-pack

{
  "fund": "TLT",
  "as_of": "2026-10-30",
  "above_50d": 0.8482,
  "above_200d": 0.1127,
  "p_drop5": 0.164
}

LQD 1 of 1 fired · dry run, nothing sent

pack_rowwould send (dry run)Webhook → alm-pack

{
  "fund": "LQD",
  "as_of": "2026-10-30",
  "above_50d": 0.6552,
  "above_200d": 0.0841,
  "p_drop5": 0.022
}

HYG 1 of 1 fired · dry run, nothing sent

pack_rowwould send (dry run)Webhook → alm-pack

{
  "fund": "HYG",
  "as_of": "2026-10-30",
  "above_50d": 0.1914,
  "above_200d": 0.1909,
  "p_drop5": 0.009
}

VTI 1 of 1 fired · dry run, nothing sent

pack_rowwould send (dry run)Webhook → alm-pack

{
  "fund": "VTI",
  "as_of": "2026-10-30",
  "above_50d": 0.1242,
  "above_200d": 0.9415,
  "p_drop5": 0.187
}

What it means

Session of 2026-10-30, 4 symbols: Above the 50-day average: true for TLT, LQD of 4. Is the stock above its 200-day moving average: true for VTI of 4. Highest odds for “A 5% drawdown within a month”: VTI at 19%. pack_row fired for TLT, LQD, HYG, VTI.

Every fund posts a row; the pack shows the facts and the drawdown odds side by side for the committee.

As a scheduled workflow (Fri at 17:00 ET)

Create it under Workflows in the console: it runs these questions for every symbol on the schedule and fires the actions per symbol. The answers above are what one run returned.

{
  "name": "Weekly ALM digest: bonds, credit and equities",
  "symbols": "TLT LQD HYG VTI",
  "days": [
    5
  ],
  "at_time": "17:00",
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "questions": {
    "trend": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "C > sma(C, 50)"
    },
    "long": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Is the stock above its 200-day moving average?"
    },
    "drop5": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will it drop at least 5% at some point in the next month?"
    }
  },
  "actions": [
    {
      "id": "pack_row",
      "when": "trend >= 0",
      "do": "webhook",
      "connection": "alm-pack",
      "body": {
        "fund": "{{symbol}}",
        "as_of": "{{as_of}}",
        "above_50d": "{{trend}}",
        "above_200d": "{{long}}",
        "p_drop5": "{{drop5}}"
      }
    }
  ]
}

Request JSON (TLT; the others differ only in the symbol)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "state": {
    "symbol": "TLT"
  },
  "questions": {
    "trend": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "C > sma(C, 50)"
    },
    "long": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Is the stock above its 200-day moving average?"
    },
    "drop5": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will it drop at least 5% at some point in the next month?"
    }
  },
  "actions": [
    {
      "id": "pack_row",
      "when": "trend >= 0",
      "do": "webhook",
      "connection": "alm-pack",
      "body": {
        "fund": "{{symbol}}",
        "as_of": "{{as_of}}",
        "above_50d": "{{trend}}",
        "above_200d": "{{long}}",
        "p_drop5": "{{drop5}}"
      }
    }
  ],
  "dry_run": true
}

Response JSON (TLT, real)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "answers": {
    "trend": {
      "yes_no": 0.8482,
      "rule": "C > sma(C, 50)",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "long": {
      "yes_no": 0.1127,
      "rule": "C > sma(C, 200)",
      "basis": "comparison"
    },
    "drop5": {
      "yes_no": 0.164
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "symbol": "TLT",
    "as_of": "2026-10-30"
  },
  "actions": [
    {
      "id": "pack_row",
      "fired": true,
      "status": "dry_run",
      "do": "webhook",
      "connection": "alm-pack",
      "preview": {
        "body": {
          "fund": "TLT",
          "as_of": "2026-10-30",
          "above_50d": 0.8482,
          "above_200d": 0.1127,
          "p_drop5": 0.164
        }
      }
    }
  ]
}

sma

Try it in the Playground

Insurance investment office · example 10

Bank bond issuer BAC: earnings misses as a credit flag

The portfolio owns bank bonds. Equity-side earnings misses and drawdowns are early warnings for the credit analysts.

ora-fin-0.1.1BAC5 questions

StateBAC
Questions5 asked
Answersreal, captured
Actionsnone

State

{"symbol":"BAC"} The server fills in the latest completed session.

Questions

`miss`	English → rule	Did the stock miss EPS estimates last quarter?
`any_miss`	English → rule	Has the stock missed EPS estimates in any of the last 4 quarters?
`drawdown`	rule	`C < 0.8 * max(H, 252)` More than 20% off the 52-week high
`earn_fell`	English → rule	Did the stock fall after its last earnings report?
`drop10`	forecast	Will it drop at least 10% at some point in the next month? A 10% drawdown within a month

Answers

Question	Answer	Reading
`miss` Did the stock miss EPS estimates last quarter compiled to `miss_eps_last > 0.5`	0.8591	true
`any_miss` Has the stock missed EPS estimates in any of the last 4 quarters compiled to `misses_last4 >= 1`	0.55	on the line (true)
`drawdown` More than 20% off the 52-week high	0.7068	true
`earn_fell` Did the stock fall after its last earnings report compiled to `last_earnings_move < 0`	0.9463	true
`drop10` A 10% drawdown within a month	0.446	45% · close to even

What it means

For BAC on the session of 2026-10-30: True now: Did the stock miss EPS estimates last quarter; More than 20% off the 52-week high; Did the stock fall after its last earnings report. On the line: Has the stock missed EPS estimates in any of the last 4 quarters. Forecasts: A 10% drawdown within a month 45%.

A miss with a falling stock is a reason for the credit analyst to re-check the issuer; it is not a rating action.

Request JSON

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "state": {
    "symbol": "BAC"
  },
  "questions": {
    "miss": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Did the stock miss EPS estimates last quarter?"
    },
    "any_miss": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Has the stock missed EPS estimates in any of the last 4 quarters?"
    },
    "drawdown": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "C < 0.8 * max(H, 252)"
    },
    "earn_fell": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Did the stock fall after its last earnings report?"
    },
    "drop10": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will it drop at least 10% at some point in the next month?"
    }
  }
}

Response JSON (BAC, real)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "answers": {
    "miss": {
      "yes_no": 0.8591,
      "rule": "miss_eps_last > 0.5",
      "basis": "pattern"
    },
    "any_miss": {
      "yes_no": 0.55,
      "rule": "misses_last4 >= 1",
      "basis": "pattern"
    },
    "drawdown": {
      "yes_no": 0.7068,
      "rule": "C < 0.8 * max(H, 252)",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "earn_fell": {
      "yes_no": 0.9463,
      "rule": "last_earnings_move < 0",
      "basis": "pattern"
    },
    "drop10": {
      "yes_no": 0.446
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "symbol": "BAC",
    "as_of": "2026-10-30"
  }
}

last_earnings_move max miss_eps_last misses_last4

Try it in the Playground

Information, not investment advice. Rules answer from the latest completed daily session; forecasts are probabilities. Actions ran as dry runs: nothing was sent. More in Institutions: ETF issuer, Index provider, Pension fund, Endowment, Sovereign wealth fund.

Create an account Open the Playground Everything here also lives in the console, next to your keys and usage.

Individuals

Buy side

Sell side

Corporates

Builders

Institutions

TLT: is the duration trend turning for the ALM desk?

State

Questions

Answers

What it means

HYG vs LQD: is credit risk appetite fading?

State

Questions

Answers

Actions

What it means

TIP: is the inflation hedge working?

State

Questions

Answers

Actions

What it means

Equity sleeve drawdown limit: VTI

State

Questions

Answers

Actions

What it means

Dividend payer for the general account: is JNJ still paying and growing?

State

Questions

Answers

What it means

VNQ: real-estate sleeve health

State

Questions

Answers

What it means

Volatility regime check on SPY before rebalancing

State

Questions

Answers

Actions

What it means

EMB: emerging-market debt risk read

State

Questions

Answers

What it means

Weekly ALM digest: bonds, credit and equities

State

Questions

Answers

Actions

What it means

Bank bond issuer BAC: earnings misses as a credit flag

State

Questions

Answers

What it means