Model

Hedge fund PM: 20 ways to use Ora

Long/short books: catalysts, crowding, stops and gross/net decisions every morning. Each example is a complete, runnable request with the real answers it returned (43 requests, captured 2026-10-31), what they mean and, where it fits, the action it would send.

Run withAnswers were captured on ora-fin-0.1.1. Another model changes the request JSON and the Playground link; run it there to see its answers.

Rule functions and facts used by this player (58)

sma 9 offset 8 ref 5 atr 4 avg 3 lowest 3 swinglow 3 days_to_earnings 3 roc 3 log 2 sqrt 2 std 2 macd 2 swinghigh 2 abs 2 last_earnings_move 2 ema 2 rsi 2 highest 2 beat_eps_last 2 beat_revenue_last 2 percentrank 2 days_to_ex_div 2 tr 2 macdsignal 1 three_black_crows 1 beat_streak 1 eps_surprise_pct 1 linreg 1 engulfing_bear 1 evening_star 1 shooting_star 1 days_since_earnings 1 last_earnings_gap 1 pre_earnings_close 1 revenue_surprise_pct 1 max 1 dark_cloud 1 next_report_bmo 1 atr_pct 1 three_white_soldiers 1 adx 1 highestbars 1 div_yield_ttm 1 next_div_amount 1 hammer 1 piercing_line 1 stochk 1 willr 1 obv 1 sign 1 sum 1 crossdown 1 zscore 1 days_since_split 1 days_to_split 1 last_split_ratio 1 splits_5y 1

Examples 11–20 of 20 · page 2 of 2

Hedge fund PM · example 11

Size by regime: is AMD in a high-volatility regime?

Scale position size by volatility: compare current ATR and realized volatility with their history.

ora-fin-0.1.1AMD6 questions1 action

StateAMD
Questions6 asked
Answersreal, captured
Actions1 rule · dry run

State

{"symbol":"AMD"} The server fills in the latest completed session.

Questions

`atr_pct`	rule	`atr_pct(14) > 4` ATR over 4% of price
`atr_rank`	rule	`percentrank(atr(14), 120) > 80` ATR in the top 20% of the last 120 sessions
`hv`	rule	`std(log(C / C[-1]), 20) * sqrt(252) > 0.4` Annualized 20-day volatility above 40%
`tr_wide`	rule	`tr() > 1.5 * ref(atr(14), -1)` True range 1.5× yesterday's ATR
`vol_up`	forecast	Will volatility rise over the next 5 days? Volatility rising over 5 days
`hv30`	forecast	Will annualized volatility over the next 21 sessions exceed 30%? Next-month volatility above 30%

Answers

Question	Answer	Reading
`atr_pct` ATR over 4% of price	0.9226	true
`atr_rank` ATR in the top 20% of the last 120 sessions	0.0832	false
`hv` Annualized 20-day volatility above 40%	0.9363	true
`tr_wide` True range 1.5× yesterday's ATR	0.9413	true
`vol_up` Volatility rising over 5 days	0.397	40% · unlikely
`hv30` Next-month volatility above 30%	0.501	50% · close to even

Actions

Rules on the answers decide what to send.

atr_rank >= 0.6 or atr_pct >= 0.6→Webhookrisk-system

What each action would send 1 of 1 fired · dry run, nothing sent

resizewould send (dry run)Webhook → risk-system

{
  "symbol": "AMD",
  "action": "scale_target",
  "factor": 0.6,
  "reason": "high_vol_regime",
  "p_atr_rank": 0.0832,
  "as_of": "2026-10-30"
}

What it means

For AMD on the session of 2026-10-30: True now: ATR over 4% of price; Annualized 20-day volatility above 40%; True range 1.5× yesterday's ATR. Not true: ATR in the top 20% of the last 120 sessions. Forecasts: Volatility rising over 5 days 40%; Next-month volatility above 30% 50%. Fired: resize (Webhook → risk-system).

When volatility is high against its own history the target is scaled down; the forecasts show whether that regime is expected to persist.

Request JSON

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "state": {
    "symbol": "AMD"
  },
  "questions": {
    "atr_pct": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "atr_pct(14) > 4"
    },
    "atr_rank": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "percentrank(atr(14), 120) > 80"
    },
    "hv": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "std(log(C / C[-1]), 20) * sqrt(252) > 0.4"
    },
    "tr_wide": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "tr() > 1.5 * ref(atr(14), -1)"
    },
    "vol_up": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will volatility rise over the next 5 days?"
    },
    "hv30": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will annualized volatility over the next 21 sessions exceed 30%?"
    }
  },
  "actions": [
    {
      "id": "resize",
      "when": "atr_rank >= 0.6 or atr_pct >= 0.6",
      "do": "webhook",
      "connection": "risk-system",
      "body": {
        "symbol": "{{symbol}}",
        "action": "scale_target",
        "factor": 0.6,
        "reason": "high_vol_regime",
        "p_atr_rank": "{{atr_rank}}",
        "as_of": "{{as_of}}"
      }
    }
  ],
  "dry_run": true
}

Response JSON (AMD, real)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "answers": {
    "atr_pct": {
      "yes_no": 0.9226,
      "rule": "atr_pct(14) > 4",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "atr_rank": {
      "yes_no": 0.0832,
      "rule": "percentrank(atr(14), 120) > 80",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "hv": {
      "yes_no": 0.9363,
      "rule": "std(log(C / C[-1]), 20) * sqrt(252) > 0.4",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "tr_wide": {
      "yes_no": 0.9413,
      "rule": "tr() > 1.5 * ref(atr(14), -1)",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "vol_up": {
      "yes_no": 0.397
    },
    "hv30": {
      "yes_no": 0.501
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "symbol": "AMD",
    "as_of": "2026-10-30"
  },
  "actions": [
    {
      "id": "resize",
      "fired": true,
      "status": "dry_run",
      "do": "webhook",
      "connection": "risk-system",
      "preview": {
        "body": {
          "symbol": "AMD",
          "action": "scale_target",
          "factor": 0.6,
          "reason": "high_vol_regime",
          "p_atr_rank": 0.0832,
          "as_of": "2026-10-30"
        }
      }
    }
  ]
}

atr atr_pct log offset percentrank ref sqrt std tr

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Hedge fund PM · example 12

Short squeeze risk on a CCL short

Before pressing a short in a heavily traded name, check for squeeze signs: volume spikes, gaps up and strong closes.

ora-fin-0.1.1CCL6 questions1 action

StateCCL
Questions6 asked
Answersreal, captured
Actions1 rule · dry run

State

{"symbol":"CCL"} The server fills in the latest completed session.

Questions

`vol_spike`	rule	`V > 2 * ref(avg(V, 20), -1)` Volume more than twice the previous 20-day average
`unfilled_gap`	rule	`L > H[-1]` An unfilled gap up
`trend_day`	rule	`(O <= L + 0.2 * (H - L)) and (C >= H - 0.2 * (H - L))` A trend day up: opened near the low, closed near the high
`soldiers`	rule	`three_white_soldiers()` three white soldiers candle: Three green bars, each closing higher and opening inside the previous body.
`rally10`	forecast	Will it rally at least 10% at some point in the next month? A 10% rally within a month
`gap_up`	forecast	Will it gap up tomorrow? A gap up tomorrow

Answers

Question	Answer	Reading
`vol_spike` Volume more than twice the previous 20-day average	0.0778	false
`unfilled_gap` An unfilled gap up	0.088	false
`trend_day` A trend day up: opened near the low, closed near the high	0.1889	false
`soldiers` three white soldiers candle: Three green bars, each closing higher and opening inside the previous body.	0.0742	false
`rally10` A 10% rally within a month	0.501	50% · close to even
`gap_up` A gap up tomorrow	0.076	8% · unlikely

Actions

Rules on the answers decide what to send.

vol_spike >= 0.6 and (unfilled_gap >= 0.6 or trend_day >= 0.6)→Slackpm-desk

What each action would send 0 of 1 fired · dry run, nothing sent

cover_halfrule false: skipped

What it means

For CCL on the session of 2026-10-30: Not true: Volume more than twice the previous 20-day average; An unfilled gap up; A trend day up: opened near the low, closed near the high; three white soldiers candle: Three green bars, each closing higher and opening inside the previous body.. Forecasts: A 10% rally within a month 50%; A gap up tomorrow 8%. No action fired: every rule was false.

Volume plus an unfilled gap or a trend day is how squeezes start; the cover suggestion goes to the desk, never straight to the OMS.

Request JSON

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "state": {
    "symbol": "CCL"
  },
  "questions": {
    "vol_spike": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "V > 2 * ref(avg(V, 20), -1)"
    },
    "unfilled_gap": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "L > H[-1]"
    },
    "trend_day": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "(O <= L + 0.2 * (H - L)) and (C >= H - 0.2 * (H - L))"
    },
    "soldiers": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "three_white_soldiers()"
    },
    "rally10": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will it rally at least 10% at some point in the next month?"
    },
    "gap_up": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will it gap up tomorrow?"
    }
  },
  "actions": [
    {
      "id": "cover_half",
      "when": "vol_spike >= 0.6 and (unfilled_gap >= 0.6 or trend_day >= 0.6)",
      "do": "slack",
      "connection": "pm-desk",
      "message": "{{symbol}} ({{as_of}}): squeeze signs, volume spike {{vol_spike|pct}} with a gap/trend day. Consider covering half. 10% rally odds {{rally10|pct}}."
    }
  ],
  "dry_run": true
}

Response JSON (CCL, real)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "answers": {
    "vol_spike": {
      "yes_no": 0.0778,
      "rule": "V > 2 * ref(avg(V, 20), -1)",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "unfilled_gap": {
      "yes_no": 0.088,
      "rule": "L > H[-1]",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "trend_day": {
      "yes_no": 0.1889,
      "rule": "(O <= L + 0.2 * (H - L)) and (C >= H - 0.2 * (H - L))",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "soldiers": {
      "yes_no": 0.0742,
      "rule": "three_white_soldiers()",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "rally10": {
      "yes_no": 0.501
    },
    "gap_up": {
      "yes_no": 0.076
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "symbol": "CCL",
    "as_of": "2026-10-30"
  },
  "actions": [
    {
      "id": "cover_half",
      "fired": false,
      "status": "skipped"
    }
  ]
}

avg offset ref three_white_soldiers

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Hedge fund PM · example 13

Semis vs software: SMH, SOXX, CRM and NOW compared

Compare chip and software leaders on trend and momentum to pick the long and the funding short.

ora-fin-0.1.14 symbols, one request each5 questions

State4 symbols
Questions5 asked
Answersreal, captured
Actionsnone

State

{"symbol":"SMH"} then SOXX, CRM, NOW, one request each. The server fills in the latest completed session.

Questions

`stacked`	rule	`C > ema(C, 20) and ema(C, 20) > sma(C, 50) and sma(C, 50) > sma(C, 200)` Stacked averages: close > 20 EMA > 50 > 200
`roc63`	rule	`roc(C, 63) > 0` Up over three months
`adx`	rule	`adx(14) > 25` Trending (ADX above 25)
`highestbars`	rule	`highestbars(C, 50) <= 5` The 50-day closing high came in the last 5 sessions
`beat_spy`	forecast	Will it beat SPY over the next month? Beating SPY over a month

Answers

Symbol	`stacked`rule	`roc63`rule	`adx`rule	`highestbars`rule	`beat_spy`forecast
`SMH`	0.0803	0.2019	0.5057	0.1903	0.538
`SOXX`	0.0769	0.1524	0.5902	0.19	0.533
`CRM`	0.2151	0.9134	0.2012	0.0617	0.551
`NOW`	0.0537	0.2262	0.9318	0.55	0.355

true false not known for rules; forecasts are odds. Hover a column for its question.

What it means

Session of 2026-10-30, 4 symbols: Stacked averages: close > 20 EMA > 50 > 200: true for none of 4. Up over three months: true for CRM of 4. Trending (ADX above 25): true for NOW of 4. The 50-day closing high came in the last 5 sessions: true for none of 4. Highest odds for “Beating SPY over a month”: CRM at 55%.

Leaders show stacked averages and a fresh high; the funding short is the name with the fewest trend rules true.

Request JSON (SMH; the others differ only in the symbol)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "state": {
    "symbol": "SMH"
  },
  "questions": {
    "stacked": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "C > ema(C, 20) and ema(C, 20) > sma(C, 50) and sma(C, 50) > sma(C, 200)"
    },
    "roc63": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "roc(C, 63) > 0"
    },
    "adx": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "adx(14) > 25"
    },
    "highestbars": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "highestbars(C, 50) <= 5"
    },
    "beat_spy": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will it beat SPY over the next month?"
    }
  }
}

Response JSON (SMH, real)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "answers": {
    "stacked": {
      "yes_no": 0.0803,
      "rule": "C > ema(C, 20) and ema(C, 20) > sma(C, 50) and sma(C, 50) > sma(C, 200)",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "roc63": {
      "yes_no": 0.2019,
      "rule": "roc(C, 63) > 0",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "adx": {
      "yes_no": 0.5057,
      "rule": "adx(14) > 25",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "highestbars": {
      "yes_no": 0.1903,
      "rule": "highestbars(C, 50) <= 5",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "beat_spy": {
      "yes_no": 0.538
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "symbol": "SMH",
    "as_of": "2026-10-30"
  }
}

adx ema highestbars roc sma

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Hedge fund PM · example 14

Avoid paying the dividend on a short: PFE ex-date check

Short sellers owe the dividend; check the ex-date before holding a short through it.

ora-fin-0.1.1PFE4 questions1 action

StatePFE
Questions4 asked
Answersreal, captured
Actions1 rule · dry run

State

{"symbol":"PFE"} The server fills in the latest completed session.

Questions

`ex_soon`	rule	`days_to_ex_div <= 30` Goes ex-dividend within 30 days
`yield3`	rule	`div_yield_ttm > 3` Yield above 3%
`next_div`	rule	`next_div_amount > 0` A next dividend is declared
`trend`	English → rule	Is the stock below its 200-day moving average?

Answers

Question	Answer	Reading
`ex_soon` Goes ex-dividend within 30 days	0.9463	true
`yield3` Yield above 3%	0.9463	true
`next_div` A next dividend is declared	0.9463	true
`trend` Is the stock below its 200-day moving average compiled to `C < sma(C, 200)`	0.0537	false

Actions

Rules on the answers decide what to send.

ex_soon >= 0.6→Slackpm-desk

What each action would send 1 of 1 fired · dry run, nothing sent

ex_warningwould send (dry run)Slack → pm-desk

{
  "text": "PFE goes ex-dividend within 30 days (95%). Yield over 3% 95%. Short pays the dividend; decide before the ex-date."
}

What it means

For PFE on the session of 2026-10-30: True now: Goes ex-dividend within 30 days; Yield above 3%; A next dividend is declared. Not true: Is the stock below its 200-day moving average. Fired: ex_warning (Slack → pm-desk).

The yield makes the cost of carrying the short concrete; the ex-date fact only sees declared dates.

Request JSON

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "state": {
    "symbol": "PFE"
  },
  "questions": {
    "ex_soon": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "days_to_ex_div <= 30"
    },
    "yield3": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "div_yield_ttm > 3"
    },
    "next_div": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "next_div_amount > 0"
    },
    "trend": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Is the stock below its 200-day moving average?"
    }
  },
  "actions": [
    {
      "id": "ex_warning",
      "when": "ex_soon >= 0.6",
      "do": "slack",
      "connection": "pm-desk",
      "message": "{{symbol}} goes ex-dividend within 30 days ({{ex_soon|pct}}). Yield over 3% {{yield3|pct}}. Short pays the dividend; decide before the ex-date."
    }
  ],
  "dry_run": true
}

Response JSON (PFE, real)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "answers": {
    "ex_soon": {
      "yes_no": 0.9463,
      "rule": "days_to_ex_div <= 30",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "yield3": {
      "yes_no": 0.9463,
      "rule": "div_yield_ttm > 3",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "next_div": {
      "yes_no": 0.9463,
      "rule": "next_div_amount > 0",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "trend": {
      "yes_no": 0.0537,
      "rule": "C < sma(C, 200)",
      "basis": "comparison"
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "symbol": "PFE",
    "as_of": "2026-10-30"
  },
  "actions": [
    {
      "id": "ex_warning",
      "fired": true,
      "status": "dry_run",
      "do": "slack",
      "connection": "pm-desk",
      "preview": {
        "text": "PFE goes ex-dividend within 30 days (95%). Yield over 3% 95%. Short pays the dividend; decide before the ex-date."
      }
    }
  ]
}

days_to_ex_div div_yield_ttm next_div_amount sma

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Hedge fund PM · example 15

Oversold quality long: is UNH washed out?

Find a mean-reversion long in a quality name: oversold oscillators and a reversal candle.

ora-fin-0.1.1UNH6 questions

StateUNH
Questions6 asked
Answersreal, captured
Actionsnone

State

{"symbol":"UNH"} The server fills in the latest completed session.

Questions

`rsi2`	rule	`rsi(C, 2) < 10` Two-day RSI under 10
`stoch`	English → rule	Is the stock oversold on the stochastic, below 20?
`willr`	rule	`willr(14) < -90` Williams %R under -90
`hammer`	rule	`hammer()` hammer candle: Lower wick at least twice the body, upper wick at most 10% of the range, closing below the close five bars back.
`piercing`	rule	`piercing_line()` piercing line candle: After a red day, opens below its close and closes above the middle of its body (but under its open).
`up_week`	forecast	Will the stock be higher in a week? Higher in a week

Answers

Question	Answer	Reading
`rsi2` Two-day RSI under 10	0.221	false
`stoch` Is the stock oversold on the stochastic, below 20 compiled to `stochk(14, 3, 3) < 20`	0.0809	false
`willr` Williams %R under -90	0.0748	false
`hammer` hammer candle: Lower wick at least twice the body, upper wick at most 10% of the range, closing below the close five bars back.	0.0701	false
`piercing` piercing line candle: After a red day, opens below its close and closes above the middle of its body (but under its open).	0.1039	false
`up_week` Higher in a week	0.485	49% · close to even

What it means

For UNH on the session of 2026-10-30: Not true: Two-day RSI under 10; Is the stock oversold on the stochastic, below 20; Williams %R under -90; hammer candle: Lower wick at least twice the body, upper wick at most 10% of the range, closing below the close five bars back.; piercing line candle: After a red day, opens below its close and closes above the middle of its body (but under its open).. Forecasts: Higher in a week 49%.

Oversold readings plus a reversal candle make the case for a small, tight-stop long; the forecast says how often such weeks end higher.

Request JSON

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "state": {
    "symbol": "UNH"
  },
  "questions": {
    "rsi2": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "rsi(C, 2) < 10"
    },
    "stoch": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Is the stock oversold on the stochastic, below 20?"
    },
    "willr": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "willr(14) < -90"
    },
    "hammer": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "hammer()"
    },
    "piercing": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "piercing_line()"
    },
    "up_week": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will the stock be higher in a week?"
    }
  }
}

Response JSON (UNH, real)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "answers": {
    "rsi2": {
      "yes_no": 0.221,
      "rule": "rsi(C, 2) < 10",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "stoch": {
      "yes_no": 0.0809,
      "rule": "stochk(14, 3, 3) < 20",
      "basis": "pattern"
    },
    "willr": {
      "yes_no": 0.0748,
      "rule": "willr(14) < -90",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "hammer": {
      "yes_no": 0.0701,
      "rule": "hammer()",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "piercing": {
      "yes_no": 0.1039,
      "rule": "piercing_line()",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "up_week": {
      "yes_no": 0.485
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "symbol": "UNH",
    "as_of": "2026-10-30"
  }
}

hammer piercing_line rsi stochk willr

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Hedge fund PM · example 16

Macro hedges: are TLT and GLD trending as the hedge book expects?

Check that the book's macro hedges are behaving: trend and momentum in long bonds and gold.

ora-fin-0.1.13 symbols, one request each5 questions

State3 symbols
Questions5 asked
Answersreal, captured
Actionsnone

State

{"symbol":"TLT"} then GLD, UUP, one request each. The server fills in the latest completed session.

Questions

`trend`	English → rule	Is the stock above its 200-day moving average?
`macd`	English → rule	Is MACD above zero?
`obv`	rule	`obv() > sma(obv(), 20)` On-balance volume above its 20-day average
`sum_up`	rule	`sum(sign(C - C[-1]), 10) > 2` Net up days over the last ten sessions above two
`up_week`	forecast	Will the stock be higher in a week? Higher in a week

Answers

Symbol	`trend`rule	`macd`rule	`obv`rule	`sum_up`rule	`up_week`forecast
`TLT`	0.1127	0.8818	0.8722	0.45	0.561
`GLD`	0.0537	0.1255	0.1358	0.1074	0.566
`UUP`	0.9463	0.8581	0.1311	0.1852	0.561

true false not known for rules; forecasts are odds. Hover a column for its question.

What it means

Session of 2026-10-30, 3 symbols: Is the stock above its 200-day moving average: true for UUP of 3. Is MACD above zero: true for TLT, UUP of 3. On-balance volume above its 20-day average: true for TLT of 3. Net up days over the last ten sessions above two: true for none of 3. Highest odds for “Higher in a week”: GLD at 57%.

Hedges that are trending earn their carry; a hedge going nowhere is a cost the PM reviews at the next rebalance.

Request JSON (TLT; the others differ only in the symbol)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "state": {
    "symbol": "TLT"
  },
  "questions": {
    "trend": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Is the stock above its 200-day moving average?"
    },
    "macd": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Is MACD above zero?"
    },
    "obv": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "obv() > sma(obv(), 20)"
    },
    "sum_up": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "sum(sign(C - C[-1]), 10) > 2"
    },
    "up_week": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will the stock be higher in a week?"
    }
  }
}

Response JSON (TLT, real)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "answers": {
    "trend": {
      "yes_no": 0.1127,
      "rule": "C > sma(C, 200)",
      "basis": "comparison"
    },
    "macd": {
      "yes_no": 0.8818,
      "rule": "macd(C) > 0",
      "basis": "pattern"
    },
    "obv": {
      "yes_no": 0.8722,
      "rule": "obv() > sma(obv(), 20)",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "sum_up": {
      "yes_no": 0.45,
      "rule": "sum(sign(C - C[-1]), 10) > 2",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "up_week": {
      "yes_no": 0.561
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "symbol": "TLT",
    "as_of": "2026-10-30"
  }
}

macd obv offset sign sma sum

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Hedge fund PM · example 17

Analyst idea intake: technical and event check on BKNG

When an analyst pitches a long, run a standard technical and event check and post it to the research system.

ora-fin-0.1.1BKNG6 questions1 action

StateBKNG
Questions6 asked
Answersreal, captured
Actions1 rule · dry run

State

{"symbol":"BKNG"} The server fills in the latest completed session.

Questions

`trend`	English → rule	Is the stock above its 200-day moving average?
`pullback`	rule	`(C > sma(C, 50)) and (sma(C, 50) > sma(C, 200)) and (L <= sma(C, 20) * 1.01) and (C >= sma(C, 20))` Uptrend pullback to the 20-day (entry zone)
`beat`	rule	`beat_eps_last > 0.5 and beat_revenue_last > 0.5` Beat on EPS and revenue last quarter
`earn_soon`	English → rule	Is earnings in the next 14 days?
`rr`	rule	`C > swinglow(5) and C < swinghigh(5) and swinghigh(5) - C >= 2 * (C - swinglow(5))` At least 2:1 to the last swing high, stop at the last swing low
`rally5`	forecast	Will it rally at least 5% at some point in the next month? A 5% rally within a month

Answers

Question	Answer	Reading
`trend` Is the stock above its 200-day moving average compiled to `C > sma(C, 200)`	0.1014	false
`pullback` Uptrend pullback to the 20-day (entry zone)	0.1252	false
`beat` Beat on EPS and revenue last quarter	0.8591	true
`earn_soon` Is earnings in the next 14 days compiled to `days_to_earnings <= 14`	0.9463	true
`rr` At least 2:1 to the last swing high, stop at the last swing low	0.3293	false
`rally5` A 5% rally within a month	0.648	65% · likely

Actions

Rules on the answers decide what to send.

trend >= 0→Webhookresearch-db

What each action would send 1 of 1 fired · dry run, nothing sent

intakewould send (dry run)Webhook → research-db

{
  "idea": "long",
  "symbol": "BKNG",
  "checks": {
    "above_200d": 0.1014,
    "pullback_entry": 0.1252,
    "beat_both": 0.8591,
    "earnings_14d": 0.9463,
    "reward_2to1": 0.3293
  },
  "p_rally5": 0.648,
  "as_of": "2026-10-30"
}

What it means

For BKNG on the session of 2026-10-30: True now: Beat on EPS and revenue last quarter; Is earnings in the next 14 days. Not true: Is the stock above its 200-day moving average; Uptrend pullback to the 20-day (entry zone); At least 2:1 to the last swing high, stop at the last swing low. Forecasts: A 5% rally within a month 65%. Fired: intake (Webhook → research-db).

Every pitch gets the same checklist attached in the research database, so the discussion starts from the same facts.

Request JSON

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "state": {
    "symbol": "BKNG"
  },
  "questions": {
    "trend": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Is the stock above its 200-day moving average?"
    },
    "pullback": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "(C > sma(C, 50)) and (sma(C, 50) > sma(C, 200)) and (L <= sma(C, 20) * 1.01) and (C >= sma(C, 20))"
    },
    "beat": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "beat_eps_last > 0.5 and beat_revenue_last > 0.5"
    },
    "earn_soon": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Is earnings in the next 14 days?"
    },
    "rr": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "C > swinglow(5) and C < swinghigh(5) and swinghigh(5) - C >= 2 * (C - swinglow(5))"
    },
    "rally5": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will it rally at least 5% at some point in the next month?"
    }
  },
  "actions": [
    {
      "id": "intake",
      "when": "trend >= 0",
      "do": "webhook",
      "connection": "research-db",
      "body": {
        "idea": "long",
        "symbol": "{{symbol}}",
        "checks": {
          "above_200d": "{{trend}}",
          "pullback_entry": "{{pullback}}",
          "beat_both": "{{beat}}",
          "earnings_14d": "{{earn_soon}}",
          "reward_2to1": "{{rr}}"
        },
        "p_rally5": "{{rally5}}",
        "as_of": "{{as_of}}"
      }
    }
  ],
  "dry_run": true
}

Response JSON (BKNG, real)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "answers": {
    "trend": {
      "yes_no": 0.1014,
      "rule": "C > sma(C, 200)",
      "basis": "comparison"
    },
    "pullback": {
      "yes_no": 0.1252,
      "rule": "(C > sma(C, 50)) and (sma(C, 50) > sma(C, 200)) and (L <= sma(C, 20) * 1.01) and (C >= sma(C, 20))",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "beat": {
      "yes_no": 0.8591,
      "rule": "beat_eps_last > 0.5 and beat_revenue_last > 0.5",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "earn_soon": {
      "yes_no": 0.9463,
      "rule": "days_to_earnings <= 14",
      "basis": "pattern"
    },
    "rr": {
      "yes_no": 0.3293,
      "rule": "C > swinglow(5) and C < swinghigh(5) and swinghigh(5) - C >= 2 * (C - swinglow(5))",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "rally5": {
      "yes_no": 0.648
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "symbol": "BKNG",
    "as_of": "2026-10-30"
  },
  "actions": [
    {
      "id": "intake",
      "fired": true,
      "status": "dry_run",
      "do": "webhook",
      "connection": "research-db",
      "preview": {
        "body": {
          "idea": "long",
          "symbol": "BKNG",
          "checks": {
            "above_200d": 0.1014,
            "pullback_entry": 0.1252,
            "beat_both": 0.8591,
            "earnings_14d": 0.9463,
            "reward_2to1": 0.3293
          },
          "p_rally5": 0.648,
          "as_of": "2026-10-30"
        }
      }
    }
  ]
}

beat_eps_last beat_revenue_last days_to_earnings sma swinghigh swinglow

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Hedge fund PM · example 18

Range expansion after compression in QCOM

Catch the first wide day after a quiet stretch, often the start of a directional move.

ora-fin-0.1.1QCOM5 questions

StateQCOM
Questions5 asked
Answersreal, captured
Actionsnone

State

{"symbol":"QCOM"} The server fills in the latest completed session.

Questions

`nr7_prior`	rule	`(H[-1] - L[-1]) < lowest(H - L, 6)` Yesterday was the narrowest range of 7 sessions
`wide`	rule	`(H - L) > 2 * avg(H - L, 20)` Range more than twice the 20-day average range
`tr`	rule	`tr() > 1.5 * ref(atr(14), -1)` True range 1.5× yesterday's ATR
`close_top`	rule	`(C - L) / (H - L) > 0.75` Closed in the top quarter of the day's range
`big5`	forecast	Will there be a big move in either direction in the next 5 days? A big move either way in 5 days

Answers

Question	Answer	Reading
`nr7_prior` Yesterday was the narrowest range of 7 sessions	0.1772	false
`wide` Range more than twice the 20-day average range	0.7997	true
`tr` True range 1.5× yesterday's ATR	0.9463	true
`close_top` Closed in the top quarter of the day's range	0.0749	false
`big5` A big move either way in 5 days	0.276	28% · unlikely

What it means

For QCOM on the session of 2026-10-30: True now: Range more than twice the 20-day average range; True range 1.5× yesterday's ATR. Not true: Yesterday was the narrowest range of 7 sessions; Closed in the top quarter of the day's range. Forecasts: A big move either way in 5 days 28%.

A wide day closing in its top quarter after a narrow one is the expansion setup; direction comes from the close.

Request JSON

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "state": {
    "symbol": "QCOM"
  },
  "questions": {
    "nr7_prior": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "(H[-1] - L[-1]) < lowest(H - L, 6)"
    },
    "wide": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "(H - L) > 2 * avg(H - L, 20)"
    },
    "tr": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "tr() > 1.5 * ref(atr(14), -1)"
    },
    "close_top": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "(C - L) / (H - L) > 0.75"
    },
    "big5": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will there be a big move in either direction in the next 5 days?"
    }
  }
}

Response JSON (QCOM, real)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "answers": {
    "nr7_prior": {
      "yes_no": 0.1772,
      "rule": "(H[-1] - L[-1]) < lowest(H - L, 6)",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "wide": {
      "yes_no": 0.7997,
      "rule": "(H - L) > 2 * avg(H - L, 20)",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "tr": {
      "yes_no": 0.9463,
      "rule": "tr() > 1.5 * ref(atr(14), -1)",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "close_top": {
      "yes_no": 0.0749,
      "rule": "(C - L) / (H - L) > 0.75",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "big5": {
      "yes_no": 0.276
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "symbol": "QCOM",
    "as_of": "2026-10-30"
  }
}

atr avg lowest offset ref tr

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Hedge fund PM · example 19

Kill switch: flatten the momentum sleeve on a market shock

If the market prints a return shock with broken trend, tell the OMS to pause new momentum entries.

ora-fin-0.1.1SPY5 questions2 actions

StateSPY
Questions5 asked
Answersreal, captured
Actions2 rules · dry run

State

{"symbol":"SPY"} The server fills in the latest completed session.

Questions

`shock`	rule	`zscore(C / C[-1] - 1, 20) < -2` A two-sigma down day
`down_3`	English → rule	Did the stock fall more than 3% today?
`below_50d`	English → rule	Is the stock more than 5% below its 50-day moving average?
`crossdown`	rule	`crossdown(sma(C, 20), sma(C, 50))` 20-day average crossed below the 50-day today
`drop10`	forecast	Will it drop at least 10% at some point in the next month? A 10% drawdown within a month

Answers

Question	Answer	Reading
`shock` A two-sigma down day	0.6995	true
`down_3` Did the stock fall more than 3% today compiled to `C / C[-1] - 1 < -0.03`	0.0709	false
`below_50d` Is the stock more than 5% below its 50-day moving average compiled to `C < sma(C, 50) * 0.95`	0.0537	false
`crossdown` 20-day average crossed below the 50-day today	0.05	false
`drop10` A 10% drawdown within a month	0.205	21% · unlikely

Actions

Rules on the answers decide what to send.

shock >= 0.6 or (down_3 >= 0.6 and below_50d >= 0.6)→Webhookoms

else→Slackpm-desk

What each action would send 1 of 2 fired · dry run, nothing sent

pausewould send (dry run)Webhook → oms

{
  "command": "pause_strategy",
  "strategy": "momentum_sleeve",
  "reason": "market_shock",
  "p_shock": 0.6995,
  "p_drop10": 0.205,
  "as_of": "2026-10-30"
}

okrule false: skipped

What it means

For SPY on the session of 2026-10-30: True now: A two-sigma down day. Not true: Did the stock fall more than 3% today; Is the stock more than 5% below its 50-day moving average; 20-day average crossed below the 50-day today. Forecasts: A 10% drawdown within a month 21%. Fired: pause (Webhook → oms).

The pause is mechanical and reversible; the PM restarts the sleeve by hand once conditions settle.

Request JSON

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "state": {
    "symbol": "SPY"
  },
  "questions": {
    "shock": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "zscore(C / C[-1] - 1, 20) < -2"
    },
    "down_3": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Did the stock fall more than 3% today?"
    },
    "below_50d": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Is the stock more than 5% below its 50-day moving average?"
    },
    "crossdown": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "crossdown(sma(C, 20), sma(C, 50))"
    },
    "drop10": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will it drop at least 10% at some point in the next month?"
    }
  },
  "actions": [
    {
      "id": "pause",
      "when": "shock >= 0.6 or (down_3 >= 0.6 and below_50d >= 0.6)",
      "do": "webhook",
      "connection": "oms",
      "body": {
        "command": "pause_strategy",
        "strategy": "momentum_sleeve",
        "reason": "market_shock",
        "p_shock": "{{shock}}",
        "p_drop10": "{{drop10}}",
        "as_of": "{{as_of}}"
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "ok",
      "when": "else",
      "do": "slack",
      "connection": "pm-desk",
      "message": "SPY ({{as_of}}): no shock. 10% drawdown odds {{drop10|pct}}."
    }
  ],
  "dry_run": true
}

Response JSON (SPY, real)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "answers": {
    "shock": {
      "yes_no": 0.6995,
      "rule": "zscore(C / C[-1] - 1, 20) < -2",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "down_3": {
      "yes_no": 0.0709,
      "rule": "C / C[-1] - 1 < -0.03",
      "basis": "pattern"
    },
    "below_50d": {
      "yes_no": 0.0537,
      "rule": "C < sma(C, 50) * 0.95",
      "basis": "comparison"
    },
    "crossdown": {
      "yes_no": 0.05,
      "rule": "crossdown(sma(C, 20), sma(C, 50))",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "drop10": {
      "yes_no": 0.205
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "symbol": "SPY",
    "as_of": "2026-10-30"
  },
  "actions": [
    {
      "id": "pause",
      "fired": true,
      "status": "dry_run",
      "do": "webhook",
      "connection": "oms",
      "preview": {
        "body": {
          "command": "pause_strategy",
          "strategy": "momentum_sleeve",
          "reason": "market_shock",
          "p_shock": 0.6995,
          "p_drop10": 0.205,
          "as_of": "2026-10-30"
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "ok",
      "fired": false,
      "status": "skipped"
    }
  ]
}

crossdown offset sma zscore

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Hedge fund PM · example 20

Split news and index flows: has a stock split recently?

Recent large splits can change who owns a stock; check split history on a few big names held in the book.

ora-fin-0.1.13 symbols, one request each4 questions

State3 symbols
Questions4 asked
Answersreal, captured
Actionsnone

State

{"symbol":"NVDA"} then WMT, CMG, one request each. The server fills in the latest completed session.

Questions

`split_3y`	rule	`days_since_split <= 1095` Split in the last three years
`ratio`	rule	`last_split_ratio >= 4` Last split at least 4-for-1
`announced`	English → rule	Is a stock split coming up?
`multi`	English → rule	Has the stock split more than once in the past five years?

Answers

Symbol	`split_3y`rule	`ratio`rule	`announced`rule	`multi`rule
`NVDA`	0.9463	0.9463	0.0537	0.1409
`WMT`	0.9463	0.0683	0.0537	0.1409
`CMG`	0.9463	0.9463	0.0537	0.1409

true false not known for rules; forecasts are odds. Hover a column for its question.

What it means

Session of 2026-10-30, 3 symbols: Split in the last three years: true for NVDA, WMT, CMG of 3. Last split at least 4-for-1: true for NVDA, CMG of 3. Is a stock split coming up: true for none of 3. Has the stock split more than once in the past five years: true for none of 3.

Split facts explain share-count changes in the position records; they carry no view on price.

Request JSON (NVDA; the others differ only in the symbol)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "state": {
    "symbol": "NVDA"
  },
  "questions": {
    "split_3y": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "days_since_split <= 1095"
    },
    "ratio": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "last_split_ratio >= 4"
    },
    "announced": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Is a stock split coming up?"
    },
    "multi": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Has the stock split more than once in the past five years?"
    }
  }
}

Response JSON (NVDA, real)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "answers": {
    "split_3y": {
      "yes_no": 0.9463,
      "rule": "days_since_split <= 1095",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "ratio": {
      "yes_no": 0.9463,
      "rule": "last_split_ratio >= 4",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "announced": {
      "yes_no": 0.0537,
      "rule": "days_to_split <= 365",
      "basis": "pattern"
    },
    "multi": {
      "yes_no": 0.1409,
      "rule": "splits_5y >= 2",
      "basis": "pattern"
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "symbol": "NVDA",
    "as_of": "2026-10-30"
  }
}

days_since_split days_to_split last_split_ratio splits_5y

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Information, not investment advice. Rules answer from the latest completed daily session; forecasts are probabilities. Actions ran as dry runs: nothing was sent. More in Buy side: Financial advisor / RIA, Wealth manager, Family office, Quant researcher, Portfolio manager (long-only), Risk manager, Private equity, VC / growth investor, Fund-of-funds allocator.

Create an account Open the Playground Everything here also lives in the console, next to your keys and usage.

Individuals

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Corporates

Builders

Institutions

Size by regime: is AMD in a high-volatility regime?

State

Questions

Answers

Actions

What it means

Short squeeze risk on a CCL short

State

Questions

Answers

Actions

What it means

Semis vs software: SMH, SOXX, CRM and NOW compared

State

Questions

Answers

What it means

Avoid paying the dividend on a short: PFE ex-date check

State

Questions

Answers

Actions

What it means

Oversold quality long: is UNH washed out?

State

Questions

Answers

What it means

Macro hedges: are TLT and GLD trending as the hedge book expects?

State

Questions

Answers

What it means

Analyst idea intake: technical and event check on BKNG

State

Questions

Answers

Actions

What it means

Range expansion after compression in QCOM

State

Questions

Answers

What it means

Kill switch: flatten the momentum sleeve on a market shock

State

Questions

Answers

Actions

What it means

Split news and index flows: has a stock split recently?

State

Questions

Answers

What it means