Model

Use cases · Institutions

Insurance investment office: 20 ways to use Ora

Liability-aware portfolios: rates, credit, income and drawdown limits. Each example is a complete, runnable request with the real answers it returned (32 requests, captured 2026-10-31), what they mean and, where it fits, the action it would send.

Run withAnswers were captured on ora-fin-0.1.1. Another model changes the request JSON and the Playground link; run it there to see its answers.

Rule functions and facts used by this player (44)

sma 11 offset 8 ref 7 rsi 4 atr 4 highest 3 log 3 abs 3 avg 2 ema 2 max 2 div_yield_ttm 2 sqrt 2 std 2 last_earnings_move 2 min 2 sum 2 linreg 1 macd 1 macdsignal 1 lowest 1 cut_last 1 pays_dividend 1 years_of_growth 1 evening_star 1 harami_bear 1 cci 1 miss_eps_last 1 misses_last4 1 gravestone_doji 1 shooting_star 1 between 1 engulfing_bull 1 morning_star 1 piercing_line 1 days_to_earnings 1 roc 1 atr_pct 1 three_white_soldiers 1 doji 1 hammer 1 hanging_man 1 outside_bar 1 sign 1

Examples 11–20 of 20 · page 2 of 2

Insurance investment office · example 11

GLD: gold allocation trend and exhaustion

Gold is a small tail-risk sleeve. Check whether the trend is intact or showing exhaustion candles before the annual allocation review.

ora-fin-0.1.1GLD5 questions2 actions

StateGLD
Questions5 asked
Answersreal, captured
Actions2 rules · dry run

State

{"symbol":"GLD"} The server fills in the latest completed session.

Questions

`stacked`	rule	`C > ema(C, 20) and ema(C, 20) > sma(C, 50) and sma(C, 50) > sma(C, 200)` Stacked averages: close > 20 EMA > 50 > 200
`rsi70`	rule	`rsi(C, 14) > 70` RSI above 70
`shooting`	rule	`shooting_star()` shooting star candle: Upper wick at least twice the body, lower wick at most 10% of the range, after a five-bar rise.
`gravestone`	rule	`gravestone_doji()` gravestone doji candle: Doji with a long upper wick and almost no lower wick.
`drop5`	forecast	Will it drop at least 5% at some point in the next month? A 5% drawdown within a month

Answers

Question	Answer	Reading
`stacked` Stacked averages: close > 20 EMA > 50 > 200	0.0537	false
`rsi70` RSI above 70	0.0537	false
`shooting` shooting star candle: Upper wick at least twice the body, lower wick at most 10% of the range, after a five-bar rise.	0.0584	false
`gravestone` gravestone doji candle: Doji with a long upper wick and almost no lower wick.	0.0548	false
`drop5` A 5% drawdown within a month	0.435	44% · close to even

Actions

Rules on the answers decide what to send.

shooting >= 0.6 or gravestone >= 0.6→Slackinvestment-office

else→Slackinvestment-office

What each action would send 1 of 2 fired · dry run, nothing sent

exhaustionrule false: skipped

intactwould send (dry run)Slack → investment-office

{
  "text": "GLD (2026-10-30): no exhaustion candle; stacked trend 5%."
}

What it means

For GLD on the session of 2026-10-30: Not true: Stacked averages: close > 20 EMA > 50 > 200; RSI above 70; shooting star candle: Upper wick at least twice the body, lower wick at most 10% of the range, after a five-bar rise.; gravestone doji candle: Doji with a long upper wick and almost no lower wick.. Forecasts: A 5% drawdown within a month 44%. Fired: intact (Slack → investment-office).

An intact trend with no exhaustion candle supports keeping the sleeve at target; exhaustion signs are noted for the review.

Request JSON

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "state": {
    "symbol": "GLD"
  },
  "questions": {
    "stacked": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "C > ema(C, 20) and ema(C, 20) > sma(C, 50) and sma(C, 50) > sma(C, 200)"
    },
    "rsi70": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "rsi(C, 14) > 70"
    },
    "shooting": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "shooting_star()"
    },
    "gravestone": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "gravestone_doji()"
    },
    "drop5": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will it drop at least 5% at some point in the next month?"
    }
  },
  "actions": [
    {
      "id": "exhaustion",
      "when": "shooting >= 0.6 or gravestone >= 0.6",
      "do": "slack",
      "connection": "investment-office",
      "message": "{{symbol}} ({{as_of}}): exhaustion candle (shooting star {{shooting|pct}}, gravestone {{gravestone|pct}}). Note for the allocation review."
    },
    {
      "id": "intact",
      "when": "else",
      "do": "slack",
      "connection": "investment-office",
      "message": "{{symbol}} ({{as_of}}): no exhaustion candle; stacked trend {{stacked|pct}}."
    }
  ],
  "dry_run": true
}

Response JSON (GLD, real)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "answers": {
    "stacked": {
      "yes_no": 0.0537,
      "rule": "C > ema(C, 20) and ema(C, 20) > sma(C, 50) and sma(C, 50) > sma(C, 200)",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "rsi70": {
      "yes_no": 0.0537,
      "rule": "rsi(C, 14) > 70",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "shooting": {
      "yes_no": 0.0584,
      "rule": "shooting_star()",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "gravestone": {
      "yes_no": 0.0548,
      "rule": "gravestone_doji()",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "drop5": {
      "yes_no": 0.435
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "symbol": "GLD",
    "as_of": "2026-10-30"
  },
  "actions": [
    {
      "id": "exhaustion",
      "fired": false,
      "status": "skipped"
    },
    {
      "id": "intact",
      "fired": true,
      "status": "dry_run",
      "do": "slack",
      "connection": "investment-office",
      "preview": {
        "text": "GLD (2026-10-30): no exhaustion candle; stacked trend 5%."
      }
    }
  ]
}

ema gravestone_doji rsi shooting_star sma

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Insurance investment office · example 12

SHY: is short duration still a safe parking spot?

Short Treasuries hold the liquidity buffer. Confirm the fund is calm and not drawing down.

ora-fin-0.1.1SHY4 questions

StateSHY
Questions4 asked
Answersreal, captured
Actionsnone

State

{"symbol":"SHY"} The server fills in the latest completed session.

Questions

`atr_low`	English → rule	Is the 14-day ATR less than 2% of the price?
`hv_low`	English → rule	Is 20-day historical volatility below 20%?
`down5`	English → rule	Is the stock down more than 5% over the last month?
`between`	rule	`between(rsi(C, 14), 30, 70)` RSI between 30 and 70 (no extreme)

Answers

Question	Answer	Reading
`atr_low` Is the 14-day ATR less than 2% of the price compiled to `atr(14) / C < 0.02`	0.9463	true
`hv_low` Is 20-day historical volatility below 20% compiled to `std(log(C / C[-1]), 20) * sqrt(20 / 19) * sqrt(252) < 0.2`	0.9463	true
`down5` Is the stock down more than 5% over the last month compiled to `C / C[-21] - 1 < -0.05`	0.0537	false
`between` RSI between 30 and 70 (no extreme)	0.05	false

What it means

For SHY on the session of 2026-10-30: True now: Is the 14-day ATR less than 2% of the price; Is 20-day historical volatility below 20%. Not true: Is the stock down more than 5% over the last month; RSI between 30 and 70 (no extreme).

All calm rules true is what a liquidity buffer should look like; any false answer is investigated by treasury operations.

Request JSON

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "state": {
    "symbol": "SHY"
  },
  "questions": {
    "atr_low": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Is the 14-day ATR less than 2% of the price?"
    },
    "hv_low": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Is 20-day historical volatility below 20%?"
    },
    "down5": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Is the stock down more than 5% over the last month?"
    },
    "between": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "between(rsi(C, 14), 30, 70)"
    }
  }
}

Response JSON (SHY, real)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "answers": {
    "atr_low": {
      "yes_no": 0.9463,
      "rule": "atr(14) / C < 0.02",
      "basis": "pattern"
    },
    "hv_low": {
      "yes_no": 0.9463,
      "rule": "std(log(C / C[-1]), 20) * sqrt(20 / 19) * sqrt(252) < 0.2",
      "basis": "pattern"
    },
    "down5": {
      "yes_no": 0.0537,
      "rule": "C / C[-21] - 1 < -0.05",
      "basis": "pattern"
    },
    "between": {
      "yes_no": 0.05,
      "rule": "between(rsi(C, 14), 30, 70)",
      "basis": "rule"
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "symbol": "SHY",
    "as_of": "2026-10-30"
  }
}

atr between log offset rsi sqrt std

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Insurance investment office · example 13

HYG: reversal candles after a credit sell-off

After a sell-off in high yield, look for bullish reversal patterns before adding back credit risk.

ora-fin-0.1.1HYG5 questions

StateHYG
Questions5 asked
Answersreal, captured
Actionsnone

State

{"symbol":"HYG"} The server fills in the latest completed session.

Questions

`piercing`	rule	`piercing_line()` piercing line candle: After a red day, opens below its close and closes above the middle of its body (but under its open).
`morning`	rule	`morning_star()` morning star candle: A red bar, a small bar (half its body or less) that stays under its close, then a green bar closing above the middle of the first.
`engulf`	rule	`engulfing_bull()` engulfing bull candle: A green body that engulfs yesterday's red body.
`near_low`	English → rule	Is the stock within 10% of its 52-week low?
`rally5`	forecast	Will it rally at least 5% at some point in the next month? A 5% rally within a month

Answers

Question	Answer	Reading
`piercing` piercing line candle: After a red day, opens below its close and closes above the middle of its body (but under its open).	0.1935	false
`morning` morning star candle: A red bar, a small bar (half its body or less) that stays under its close, then a green bar closing above the middle of the first.	0.1774	false
`engulf` engulfing bull candle: A green body that engulfs yesterday's red body.	0.1812	false
`near_low` Is the stock within 10% of its 52-week low compiled to `abs(C / min(L, 252) - 1) <= 0.1`	0.9463	true
`rally5` A 5% rally within a month	0.009	1% · unlikely

What it means

For HYG on the session of 2026-10-30: True now: Is the stock within 10% of its 52-week low. Not true: piercing line candle: After a red day, opens below its close and closes above the middle of its body (but under its open).; morning star candle: A red bar, a small bar (half its body or less) that stays under its close, then a green bar closing above the middle of the first.; engulfing bull candle: A green body that engulfs yesterday's red body.. Forecasts: A 5% rally within a month 1%.

A reversal pattern near the lows is one input to the credit committee's add-back decision; it never acts alone.

Request JSON

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "state": {
    "symbol": "HYG"
  },
  "questions": {
    "piercing": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "piercing_line()"
    },
    "morning": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "morning_star()"
    },
    "engulf": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "engulfing_bull()"
    },
    "near_low": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Is the stock within 10% of its 52-week low?"
    },
    "rally5": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will it rally at least 5% at some point in the next month?"
    }
  }
}

Response JSON (HYG, real)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "answers": {
    "piercing": {
      "yes_no": 0.1935,
      "rule": "piercing_line()",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "morning": {
      "yes_no": 0.1774,
      "rule": "morning_star()",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "engulf": {
      "yes_no": 0.1812,
      "rule": "engulfing_bull()",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "near_low": {
      "yes_no": 0.9463,
      "rule": "abs(C / min(L, 252) - 1) <= 0.1",
      "basis": "comparison"
    },
    "rally5": {
      "yes_no": 0.009
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "symbol": "HYG",
    "as_of": "2026-10-30"
  }
}

abs engulfing_bull min morning_star piercing_line

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Insurance investment office · example 14

Large equity holdings reporting this month: AAPL, MSFT, JPM

Concentrated equity holdings with reports coming up add short-term risk to the capital ratio. List them ahead of the month end.

ora-fin-0.1.13 symbols, one request each4 questions1 action

State3 symbols
Questions4 asked
Answersreal, captured
Actions1 rule · dry run

State

{"symbol":"AAPL"} then MSFT, JPM, one request each. The server fills in the latest completed session.

Questions

`earn14`	English → rule	Is earnings in the next 14 days?
`big_react`	rule	`abs(last_earnings_move) > 5` Last earnings move bigger than 5%
`trend`	rule	`C > sma(C, 50)` Above the 50-day average
`big_move`	forecast	Will there be a big move in either direction in the next 5 days? A big move either way in 5 days

Answers

Symbol	`earn14`rule	`big_react`rule	`trend`rule	`big_move`forecast	Fired
`AAPL`	0.9463	0.9463	0.9119	0.409	`event_risk`
`MSFT`	0.0537	0.0537	0.7088	0.397	none
`JPM`	0.0537	0.0664	0.3034	0.371	none

true false not known for rules; forecasts are odds. Hover a column for its question.

Actions

Rules on the answers decide what to send. Each symbol runs its own request, so each one can fire.

earn14 >= 0.6 and big_react >= 0.6→Emailcapital-management

AAPL 1 of 1 fired · dry run, nothing sent

event_riskwould send (dry run)Email → capital-management

{
  "subject": "AAPL reports within 14 days (2026-10-30)",
  "text": "AAPL reports within 14 days and its last earnings reaction was over 5%. Big-move odds over 5 days: 41%."
}

MSFT 0 of 1 fired · dry run, nothing sent

JPM 0 of 1 fired · dry run, nothing sent

What it means

Session of 2026-10-30, 3 symbols: Is earnings in the next 14 days: true for AAPL of 3. Last earnings move bigger than 5%: true for AAPL of 3. Above the 50-day average: true for AAPL, MSFT of 3. Highest odds for “A big move either way in 5 days”: AAPL at 41%. event_risk fired for AAPL.

Only names with both a near report and a large last reaction are flagged to capital management.

Request JSON (AAPL; the others differ only in the symbol)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "state": {
    "symbol": "AAPL"
  },
  "questions": {
    "earn14": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Is earnings in the next 14 days?"
    },
    "big_react": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "abs(last_earnings_move) > 5"
    },
    "trend": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "C > sma(C, 50)"
    },
    "big_move": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will there be a big move in either direction in the next 5 days?"
    }
  },
  "actions": [
    {
      "id": "event_risk",
      "when": "earn14 >= 0.6 and big_react >= 0.6",
      "do": "email",
      "connection": "capital-management",
      "subject": "{{symbol}} reports within 14 days ({{as_of}})",
      "message": "{{symbol}} reports within 14 days and its last earnings reaction was over 5%. Big-move odds over 5 days: {{big_move|pct}}."
    }
  ],
  "dry_run": true
}

Response JSON (AAPL, real)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "answers": {
    "earn14": {
      "yes_no": 0.9463,
      "rule": "days_to_earnings <= 14",
      "basis": "pattern"
    },
    "big_react": {
      "yes_no": 0.9463,
      "rule": "abs(last_earnings_move) > 5",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "trend": {
      "yes_no": 0.9119,
      "rule": "C > sma(C, 50)",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "big_move": {
      "yes_no": 0.409
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "symbol": "AAPL",
    "as_of": "2026-10-30"
  },
  "actions": [
    {
      "id": "event_risk",
      "fired": true,
      "status": "dry_run",
      "do": "email",
      "connection": "capital-management",
      "preview": {
        "subject": "AAPL reports within 14 days (2026-10-30)",
        "text": "AAPL reports within 14 days and its last earnings reaction was over 5%. Big-move odds over 5 days: 41%."
      }
    }
  ]
}

abs days_to_earnings last_earnings_move sma

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Insurance investment office · example 15

Curve shape proxy: SHY, IEF, TLT momentum

Compare three-month momentum along the Treasury curve to see whether the long end or the short end is leading.

ora-fin-0.1.13 symbols, one request each4 questions

State3 symbols
Questions4 asked
Answersreal, captured
Actionsnone

State

{"symbol":"SHY"} then IEF, TLT, one request each. The server fills in the latest completed session.

Questions

`roc`	rule	`roc(C, 63) > 0` Up over three months
`log`	rule	`log(C / C[-20]) > 0` Up over the last 20 sessions (log return positive)
`sma`	rule	`sma(C, 50) > ref(sma(C, 50), -10)` The 50-day average is rising
`up_week`	forecast	Will the stock be higher in a week? Higher in a week

Answers

Symbol	`roc`rule	`log`rule	`sma`rule	`up_week`forecast
`SHY`	0.7494	0.9307	0.1624	0.594
`IEF`	0.2569	0.9275	0.0882	0.483
`TLT`	0.4003	0.932	0.1584	0.561

true false not known for rules; forecasts are odds. Hover a column for its question.

What it means

Session of 2026-10-30, 3 symbols: Up over three months: true for SHY of 3. Up over the last 20 sessions (log return positive): true for SHY, IEF, TLT of 3. The 50-day average is rising: true for none of 3. Highest odds for “Higher in a week”: SHY at 59%.

Long duration up while short duration is flat describes a falling long-end yield; the ALM team ties it to the liability discount rate.

Request JSON (SHY; the others differ only in the symbol)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "state": {
    "symbol": "SHY"
  },
  "questions": {
    "roc": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "roc(C, 63) > 0"
    },
    "log": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "log(C / C[-20]) > 0"
    },
    "sma": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "sma(C, 50) > ref(sma(C, 50), -10)"
    },
    "up_week": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will the stock be higher in a week?"
    }
  }
}

Response JSON (SHY, real)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "answers": {
    "roc": {
      "yes_no": 0.7494,
      "rule": "roc(C, 63) > 0",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "log": {
      "yes_no": 0.9307,
      "rule": "log(C / C[-20]) > 0",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "sma": {
      "yes_no": 0.1624,
      "rule": "sma(C, 50) > ref(sma(C, 50), -10)",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "up_week": {
      "yes_no": 0.594
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "symbol": "SHY",
    "as_of": "2026-10-30"
  }
}

log offset ref roc sma

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Insurance investment office · example 16

International equity sleeve: EFA trend

Check the developed international equity fund's trend and momentum before the strategic allocation review.

ora-fin-0.1.1EFA4 questions

StateEFA
Questions4 asked
Answersreal, captured
Actionsnone

State

{"symbol":"EFA"} The server fills in the latest completed session.

Questions

`trend`	English → rule	Is the stock above its 200-day moving average?
`golden`	rule	`sma(C, 50) > sma(C, 200)` 50-day above the 200-day
`mostly`	rule	`sum(C > C[-1], 10) >= 6` Up on at least six of the last ten days
`beat_spy`	forecast	Will it beat SPY over the next month? Beating SPY over a month

Answers

Question	Answer	Reading
`trend` Is the stock above its 200-day moving average compiled to `C > sma(C, 200)`	0.6709	true
`golden` 50-day above the 200-day	0.9463	true
`mostly` Up on at least six of the last ten days	0.55	on the line (true)
`beat_spy` Beating SPY over a month	0.447	45% · close to even

What it means

For EFA on the session of 2026-10-30: True now: Is the stock above its 200-day moving average; 50-day above the 200-day. On the line: Up on at least six of the last ten days. Forecasts: Beating SPY over a month 45%.

Trend and golden alignment true means the sleeve is holding its weight; otherwise the review discusses it.

Request JSON

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "state": {
    "symbol": "EFA"
  },
  "questions": {
    "trend": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Is the stock above its 200-day moving average?"
    },
    "golden": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "sma(C, 50) > sma(C, 200)"
    },
    "mostly": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "sum(C > C[-1], 10) >= 6"
    },
    "beat_spy": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will it beat SPY over the next month?"
    }
  }
}

Response JSON (EFA, real)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "answers": {
    "trend": {
      "yes_no": 0.6709,
      "rule": "C > sma(C, 200)",
      "basis": "comparison"
    },
    "golden": {
      "yes_no": 0.9463,
      "rule": "sma(C, 50) > sma(C, 200)",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "mostly": {
      "yes_no": 0.55,
      "rule": "sum(C > C[-1], 10) >= 6",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "beat_spy": {
      "yes_no": 0.447
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "symbol": "EFA",
    "as_of": "2026-10-30"
  }
}

offset sma sum

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Insurance investment office · example 17

DBC: broad commodities as an inflation sleeve

Check the broad commodity fund for trend, breakouts and volatility for the inflation-risk report.

ora-fin-0.1.1DBC5 questions

StateDBC
Questions5 asked
Answersreal, captured
Actionsnone

State

{"symbol":"DBC"} The server fills in the latest completed session.

Questions

`trend`	rule	`C > sma(C, 50)` Above the 50-day average
`donchian`	rule	`C > highest(C, 55)` 55-day closing breakout
`atr3`	rule	`atr_pct(14) > 3` A typical day moves more than 3%
`soldiers`	rule	`three_white_soldiers()` three white soldiers candle: Three green bars, each closing higher and opening inside the previous body.
`rally5`	forecast	Will it rally at least 5% at some point in the next month? A 5% rally within a month

Answers

Question	Answer	Reading
`trend` Above the 50-day average	0.8888	true
`donchian` 55-day closing breakout	0.1724	false
`atr3` A typical day moves more than 3%	0.0537	false
`soldiers` three white soldiers candle: Three green bars, each closing higher and opening inside the previous body.	0.0955	false
`rally5` A 5% rally within a month	0.392	39% · unlikely

What it means

For DBC on the session of 2026-10-30: True now: Above the 50-day average. Not true: 55-day closing breakout; A typical day moves more than 3%; three white soldiers candle: Three green bars, each closing higher and opening inside the previous body.. Forecasts: A 5% rally within a month 39%.

A 55-day breakout is a trend-following buy signal in many systems; here it is reported as a fact next to the volatility rule.

Request JSON

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "state": {
    "symbol": "DBC"
  },
  "questions": {
    "trend": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "C > sma(C, 50)"
    },
    "donchian": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "C > highest(C, 55)"
    },
    "atr3": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "atr_pct(14) > 3"
    },
    "soldiers": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "three_white_soldiers()"
    },
    "rally5": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will it rally at least 5% at some point in the next month?"
    }
  }
}

Response JSON (DBC, real)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "answers": {
    "trend": {
      "yes_no": 0.8888,
      "rule": "C > sma(C, 50)",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "donchian": {
      "yes_no": 0.1724,
      "rule": "C > highest(C, 55)",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "atr3": {
      "yes_no": 0.0537,
      "rule": "atr_pct(14) > 3",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "soldiers": {
      "yes_no": 0.0955,
      "rule": "three_white_soldiers()",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "rally5": {
      "yes_no": 0.392
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "symbol": "DBC",
    "as_of": "2026-10-30"
  }
}

atr_pct highest sma three_white_soldiers

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Insurance investment office · example 18

Daily risk-limit monitor on the equity funds

After each close, any equity fund down more than 3% on the day goes to the risk dashboard immediately.

ora-fin-0.1.13 symbols, one request each4 questions2 actionsworkflow · Mon–Fri at 16:40 ET

ScheduleMon–Fri at 16:40 ET
State3 symbols
Questions4 asked
Answersreal, captured
Actions2 rules · dry run

State

{"symbol":"VTI"} then EFA, EEM, one request each. The server fills in the latest completed session.

Questions

`down3`	English → rule	Did the stock fall more than 3% today?
`move_atr`	rule	`abs(C - C[-1]) > 1.5 * atr(14)` Today's move was bigger than 1.5 ATR
`worst`	English → rule	Was today the worst day of the last 20 sessions?
`gap_down`	forecast	Will it gap down tomorrow? A gap down tomorrow

Answers

Symbol	`down3`rule	`move_atr`rule	`worst`rule	`gap_down`forecast	Fired
`VTI`	0.0717	0.793	0.8368	0.029	`big_day`
`EFA`	0.0539	0.0945	0.3849	0.019	none
`EEM`	0.3535	0.4508	0.3974	0.077	none

true false not known for rules; forecasts are odds. Hover a column for its question.

Actions

Rules on the answers decide what to send. Each symbol runs its own request, so each one can fire.

down3 >= 0.6→Webhookrisk-dashboard

move_atr >= 0.6→Slackrisk-team

VTI 1 of 2 fired · dry run, nothing sent

limit_dayrule false: skipped

big_daywould send (dry run)Slack → risk-team

{
  "text": "VTI (2026-10-30): move bigger than 1.5 ATR (79%), worst day in 20 84%."
}

EFA 0 of 2 fired · dry run, nothing sent

EEM 0 of 2 fired · dry run, nothing sent

What it means

Session of 2026-10-30, 3 symbols: Did the stock fall more than 3% today: true for none of 3. Today's move was bigger than 1.5 ATR: true for VTI of 3. Was today the worst day of the last 20 sessions: true for VTI of 3. Highest odds for “A gap down tomorrow”: EEM at 8%. limit_day fired for none. big_day fired for VTI.

A big loss day posts to the dashboard; a big move in either direction goes to the risk channel for context.

As a scheduled workflow (Mon–Fri at 16:40 ET)

Create it under Workflows in the console: it runs these questions for every symbol on the schedule and fires the actions per symbol. The answers above are what one run returned.

{
  "name": "Daily risk-limit monitor on the equity funds",
  "symbols": "VTI EFA EEM",
  "days": [
    1,
    2,
    3,
    4,
    5
  ],
  "at_time": "16:40",
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "questions": {
    "down3": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Did the stock fall more than 3% today?"
    },
    "move_atr": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "abs(C - C[-1]) > 1.5 * atr(14)"
    },
    "worst": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Was today the worst day of the last 20 sessions?"
    },
    "gap_down": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will it gap down tomorrow?"
    }
  },
  "actions": [
    {
      "id": "limit_day",
      "when": "down3 >= 0.6",
      "do": "webhook",
      "connection": "risk-dashboard",
      "body": {
        "fund": "{{symbol}}",
        "as_of": "{{as_of}}",
        "event": "daily_loss_over_3pct",
        "p": "{{down3}}",
        "p_gap_down_tomorrow": "{{gap_down}}"
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "big_day",
      "when": "move_atr >= 0.6",
      "do": "slack",
      "connection": "risk-team",
      "message": "{{symbol}} ({{as_of}}): move bigger than 1.5 ATR ({{move_atr|pct}}), worst day in 20 {{worst|pct}}."
    }
  ]
}

Request JSON (VTI; the others differ only in the symbol)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "state": {
    "symbol": "VTI"
  },
  "questions": {
    "down3": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Did the stock fall more than 3% today?"
    },
    "move_atr": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "abs(C - C[-1]) > 1.5 * atr(14)"
    },
    "worst": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Was today the worst day of the last 20 sessions?"
    },
    "gap_down": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will it gap down tomorrow?"
    }
  },
  "actions": [
    {
      "id": "limit_day",
      "when": "down3 >= 0.6",
      "do": "webhook",
      "connection": "risk-dashboard",
      "body": {
        "fund": "{{symbol}}",
        "as_of": "{{as_of}}",
        "event": "daily_loss_over_3pct",
        "p": "{{down3}}",
        "p_gap_down_tomorrow": "{{gap_down}}"
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "big_day",
      "when": "move_atr >= 0.6",
      "do": "slack",
      "connection": "risk-team",
      "message": "{{symbol}} ({{as_of}}): move bigger than 1.5 ATR ({{move_atr|pct}}), worst day in 20 {{worst|pct}}."
    }
  ],
  "dry_run": true
}

Response JSON (VTI, real)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "answers": {
    "down3": {
      "yes_no": 0.0717,
      "rule": "C / C[-1] - 1 < -0.03",
      "basis": "pattern"
    },
    "move_atr": {
      "yes_no": 0.793,
      "rule": "abs(C - C[-1]) > 1.5 * atr(14)",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "worst": {
      "yes_no": 0.8368,
      "rule": "(C < C[-1]) and (C / C[-1] - 1 < ref(min(C / C[-1] - 1, 19), -1))",
      "basis": "pattern"
    },
    "gap_down": {
      "yes_no": 0.029
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "symbol": "VTI",
    "as_of": "2026-10-30"
  },
  "actions": [
    {
      "id": "limit_day",
      "fired": false,
      "status": "skipped"
    },
    {
      "id": "big_day",
      "fired": true,
      "status": "dry_run",
      "do": "slack",
      "connection": "risk-team",
      "preview": {
        "text": "VTI (2026-10-30): move bigger than 1.5 ATR (79%), worst day in 20 84%."
      }
    }
  ]
}

abs atr min offset ref

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Insurance investment office · example 19

AGG: reversal candles in core bonds

Core bond funds rarely print strong candles; when they do it often marks a turn in rates. Check the core bond fund.

ora-fin-0.1.1AGG5 questions

StateAGG
Questions5 asked
Answersreal, captured
Actionsnone

State

{"symbol":"AGG"} The server fills in the latest completed session.

Questions

`hammer`	rule	`hammer()` hammer candle: Lower wick at least twice the body, upper wick at most 10% of the range, closing below the close five bars back.
`hanging`	rule	`hanging_man()` hanging man candle: Hammer shape, closing above the close five bars back.
`doji`	rule	`doji()` doji candle: Body at most 10% of the day's range.
`outside`	rule	`outside_bar()` outside bar candle: Today's high above yesterday's and low below it.
`up_week`	forecast	Will the stock be higher in a week? Higher in a week

Answers

Question	Answer	Reading
`hammer` hammer candle: Lower wick at least twice the body, upper wick at most 10% of the range, closing below the close five bars back.	0.1416	false
`hanging` hanging man candle: Hammer shape, closing above the close five bars back.	0.1416	false
`doji` doji candle: Body at most 10% of the day's range.	0.367	false
`outside` outside bar candle: Today's high above yesterday's and low below it.	0.179	false
`up_week` Higher in a week	0.502	50% · close to even

What it means

For AGG on the session of 2026-10-30: Not true: hammer candle: Lower wick at least twice the body, upper wick at most 10% of the range, closing below the close five bars back.; hanging man candle: Hammer shape, closing above the close five bars back.; doji candle: Body at most 10% of the day's range.; outside bar candle: Today's high above yesterday's and low below it.. Forecasts: Higher in a week 50%.

A strong candle in core bonds is worth a note in the rates commentary; the duration policy does not change on it.

Request JSON

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "state": {
    "symbol": "AGG"
  },
  "questions": {
    "hammer": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "hammer()"
    },
    "hanging": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "hanging_man()"
    },
    "doji": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "doji()"
    },
    "outside": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "outside_bar()"
    },
    "up_week": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will the stock be higher in a week?"
    }
  }
}

Response JSON (AGG, real)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "answers": {
    "hammer": {
      "yes_no": 0.1416,
      "rule": "hammer()",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "hanging": {
      "yes_no": 0.1416,
      "rule": "hanging_man()",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "doji": {
      "yes_no": 0.367,
      "rule": "doji()",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "outside": {
      "yes_no": 0.179,
      "rule": "outside_bar()",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "up_week": {
      "yes_no": 0.502
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "symbol": "AGG",
    "as_of": "2026-10-30"
  }
}

doji hammer hanging_man outside_bar

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Insurance investment office · example 20

Stress composite: equities down, bonds up, gold up

Check whether the classic flight-to-quality pattern is under way, using one question set across SPY, TLT and GLD.

ora-fin-0.1.13 symbols, one request each5 questions

State3 symbols
Questions5 asked
Answersreal, captured
Actionsnone

State

{"symbol":"SPY"} then TLT, GLD, one request each. The server fills in the latest completed session.

Questions

`up5d`	rule	`C > C[-5]` Higher than five sessions ago
`down_week`	English → rule	Is the stock down over the last week?
`up_vol`	rule	`C > C[-1] and V > 1.5 * ref(avg(V, 20), -1)` Up on heavy volume
`sign`	rule	`sum(sign(C - C[-1]), 10) > 2` More up days than down days by three or more over 10 sessions
`big_move`	forecast	Will there be a big move in either direction in the next 5 days? A big move either way in 5 days

Answers

Symbol	`up5d`rule	`down_week`rule	`up_vol`rule	`sign`rule	`big_move`forecast
`SPY`	0.2586	0.7414	0.0552	0.45	0.425
`TLT`	0.7004	0.2996	0.1681	0.45	0.371
`GLD`	0.1671	0.8329	0.064	0.1074	0.427

true false not known for rules; forecasts are odds. Hover a column for its question.

What it means

Session of 2026-10-30, 3 symbols: Higher than five sessions ago: true for TLT of 3. Is the stock down over the last week: true for SPY, GLD of 3. Up on heavy volume: true for none of 3. More up days than down days by three or more over 10 sessions: true for none of 3. Highest odds for “A big move either way in 5 days”: GLD at 43%.

SPY down on the week while TLT and GLD are up is the stress pattern; the office reads the three answers together.

Request JSON (SPY; the others differ only in the symbol)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "state": {
    "symbol": "SPY"
  },
  "questions": {
    "up5d": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "C > C[-5]"
    },
    "down_week": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Is the stock down over the last week?"
    },
    "up_vol": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "C > C[-1] and V > 1.5 * ref(avg(V, 20), -1)"
    },
    "sign": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "sum(sign(C - C[-1]), 10) > 2"
    },
    "big_move": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will there be a big move in either direction in the next 5 days?"
    }
  }
}

Response JSON (SPY, real)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "answers": {
    "up5d": {
      "yes_no": 0.2586,
      "rule": "C > C[-5]",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "down_week": {
      "yes_no": 0.7414,
      "rule": "C < C[-5]",
      "basis": "pattern"
    },
    "up_vol": {
      "yes_no": 0.0552,
      "rule": "C > C[-1] and V > 1.5 * ref(avg(V, 20), -1)",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "sign": {
      "yes_no": 0.45,
      "rule": "sum(sign(C - C[-1]), 10) > 2",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "big_move": {
      "yes_no": 0.425
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "symbol": "SPY",
    "as_of": "2026-10-30"
  }
}

avg offset ref sign sum

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Information, not investment advice. Rules answer from the latest completed daily session; forecasts are probabilities. Actions ran as dry runs: nothing was sent. More in Institutions: ETF issuer, Index provider, Pension fund, Endowment, Sovereign wealth fund.

Create an account Open the Playground Everything here also lives in the console, next to your keys and usage.

Individuals

Buy side

Sell side

Corporates

Builders

Institutions

GLD: gold allocation trend and exhaustion

State

Questions

Answers

Actions

What it means

SHY: is short duration still a safe parking spot?

State

Questions

Answers

What it means

HYG: reversal candles after a credit sell-off

State

Questions

Answers

What it means

Large equity holdings reporting this month: AAPL, MSFT, JPM

State

Questions

Answers

Actions

What it means

Curve shape proxy: SHY, IEF, TLT momentum

State

Questions

Answers

What it means

International equity sleeve: EFA trend

State

Questions

Answers

What it means

DBC: broad commodities as an inflation sleeve

State

Questions

Answers

What it means

Daily risk-limit monitor on the equity funds

State

Questions

Answers

Actions

What it means

AGG: reversal candles in core bonds

State

Questions

Answers

What it means

Stress composite: equities down, bonds up, gold up

State

Questions

Answers

What it means