Model

Use cases · Individuals

Long-term passive investor: 20 ways to use Ora

Index funds and a few core holdings: rebalancing triggers, drawdowns and staying the course. Each example is a complete, runnable request with the real answers it returned (43 requests, captured 2026-10-31), what they mean and, where it fits, the action it would send.

Run withAnswers were captured on ora-fin-0.1.1. Another model changes the request JSON and the Playground link; run it there to see its answers.

Rule functions and facts used by this player (15)

sma 17 offset 12 max 11 log 4 sqrt 4 std 4 ref 3 rsi 3 roc 2 atr 2 bblower 1 bbupper 1 ema 1 highest 1 linreg 1

Examples 11–20 of 20 · page 2 of 2

Long-term passive investor · example 11

Small-cap sleeve: IWM, IJR, VB trend and drawdown

Small caps lag and lead in cycles; check them as a group.

ora-fin-0.1.13 symbols, one request each4 questions

State3 symbols
Questions4 asked
Answersreal, captured
Actionsnone

State

{"symbol":"IWM"} then IJR, VB, one request each. The server fills in the latest completed session.

Questions

`trend`	English → rule	Is the stock above its 200-day moving average?
`drawdown`	rule	`C < 0.8 * max(H, 252)` More than 20% off the 52-week high
`golden`	rule	`sma(C, 50) > sma(C, 200)` 50-day above the 200-day
`rally5`	forecast	Will it rally at least 5% at some point in the next month? A 5% rally within a month

Answers

Symbol	`trend`rule	`drawdown`rule	`golden`rule	`rally5`forecast
`IWM`	0.5564	0.0537	0.8318	0.285
`IJR`	0.7856	0.0537	0.8644	0.248
`VB`	0.7481	0.0537	0.8951	0.262

true false not known for rules; forecasts are odds. Hover a column for its question.

What it means

Session of 2026-10-30, 3 symbols: Is the stock above its 200-day moving average: true for IJR, VB of 3. More than 20% off the 52-week high: true for none of 3. 50-day above the 200-day: true for IWM, IJR, VB of 3. Highest odds for “A 5% rally within a month”: IWM at 28%.

Below trend with a drawdown, the sleeve is under target and gets topped up at the rebalance.

Request JSON (IWM; the others differ only in the symbol)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "state": {
    "symbol": "IWM"
  },
  "questions": {
    "trend": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Is the stock above its 200-day moving average?"
    },
    "drawdown": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "C < 0.8 * max(H, 252)"
    },
    "golden": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "sma(C, 50) > sma(C, 200)"
    },
    "rally5": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will it rally at least 5% at some point in the next month?"
    }
  }
}

Response JSON (IWM, real)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "answers": {
    "trend": {
      "yes_no": 0.5564,
      "rule": "C > sma(C, 200)",
      "basis": "comparison"
    },
    "drawdown": {
      "yes_no": 0.0537,
      "rule": "C < 0.8 * max(H, 252)",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "golden": {
      "yes_no": 0.8318,
      "rule": "sma(C, 50) > sma(C, 200)",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "rally5": {
      "yes_no": 0.285
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "symbol": "IWM",
    "as_of": "2026-10-30"
  }
}

max sma

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Long-term passive investor · example 12

Factor ETFs: QUAL, MTUM, VLUE, USMV

Which factor sleeves are in trend this quarter.

ora-fin-0.1.14 symbols, one request each4 questions

State4 symbols
Questions4 asked
Answersreal, captured
Actionsnone

State

{"symbol":"QUAL"} then MTUM, VLUE, USMV, one request each. The server fills in the latest completed session.

Questions

`trend`	English → rule	Is the stock above its 200-day moving average?
`roc`	rule	`roc(C, 20) > 5` Up more than 5% in 20 sessions
`drawdown`	rule	`C < 0.8 * max(H, 252)` More than 20% off the 52-week high
`beat_spy`	forecast	Will it beat SPY over the next month? Beating SPY over a month

Answers

Symbol	`trend`rule	`roc`rule	`drawdown`rule	`beat_spy`forecast
`QUAL`	0.9463	0.0554	0.0537	0.495
`MTUM`	0.2691	0.0537	0.1679	0.486
`VLUE`	0.9291	0.058	0.0537	0.512
`USMV`	0.9463	0.4568	0.0537	0.427

true false not known for rules; forecasts are odds. Hover a column for its question.

What it means

Session of 2026-10-30, 4 symbols: Is the stock above its 200-day moving average: true for QUAL, VLUE, USMV of 4. Up more than 5% in 20 sessions: true for none of 4. More than 20% off the 52-week high: true for none of 4. Highest odds for “Beating SPY over a month”: VLUE at 51%.

The passive investor keeps fixed factor weights; the read only explains the quarter's performance.

Request JSON (QUAL; the others differ only in the symbol)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "state": {
    "symbol": "QUAL"
  },
  "questions": {
    "trend": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Is the stock above its 200-day moving average?"
    },
    "roc": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "roc(C, 20) > 5"
    },
    "drawdown": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "C < 0.8 * max(H, 252)"
    },
    "beat_spy": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will it beat SPY over the next month?"
    }
  }
}

Response JSON (QUAL, real)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "answers": {
    "trend": {
      "yes_no": 0.9463,
      "rule": "C > sma(C, 200)",
      "basis": "comparison"
    },
    "roc": {
      "yes_no": 0.0554,
      "rule": "roc(C, 20) > 5",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "drawdown": {
      "yes_no": 0.0537,
      "rule": "C < 0.8 * max(H, 252)",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "beat_spy": {
      "yes_no": 0.495
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "symbol": "QUAL",
    "as_of": "2026-10-30"
  }
}

max roc sma

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Long-term passive investor · example 13

Gold as a diversifier: GLD trend

Is the gold sleeve doing its job?

ora-fin-0.1.1GLD4 questions1 action

StateGLD
Questions4 asked
Answersreal, captured
Actions1 rule · dry run

State

{"symbol":"GLD"} The server fills in the latest completed session.

Questions

`trend`	English → rule	Is the stock above its 200-day moving average?
`new_high`	English → rule	Did the stock make a new 52-week high today?
`ext`	English → rule	Is the stock more than 10% above its 200-day moving average?
`up_week`	forecast	Will the stock be higher in a week? Higher in a week

Answers

Question	Answer	Reading
`trend` Is the stock above its 200-day moving average compiled to `C > sma(C, 200)`	0.0537	false
`new_high` Did the stock make a new 52-week high today compiled to `H > highest(H, 252)`	0.0537	false
`ext` Is the stock more than 10% above its 200-day moving average compiled to `C > sma(C, 200) * 1.1`	0.0537	false
`up_week` Higher in a week	0.566	57% · close to even

Actions

Rules on the answers decide what to send.

ext >= 0.6→Slackfamily-finance

What each action would send 0 of 1 fired · dry run, nothing sent

trim_goldrule false: skipped

What it means

For GLD on the session of 2026-10-30: Not true: Is the stock above its 200-day moving average; Did the stock make a new 52-week high today; Is the stock more than 10% above its 200-day moving average. Forecasts: Higher in a week 57%. No action fired: every rule was false.

Gold far above its 200-day has grown beyond its target weight; trimming it back is the rebalance.

Request JSON

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "state": {
    "symbol": "GLD"
  },
  "questions": {
    "trend": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Is the stock above its 200-day moving average?"
    },
    "new_high": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Did the stock make a new 52-week high today?"
    },
    "ext": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Is the stock more than 10% above its 200-day moving average?"
    },
    "up_week": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will the stock be higher in a week?"
    }
  },
  "actions": [
    {
      "id": "trim_gold",
      "when": "ext >= 0.6",
      "do": "slack",
      "connection": "family-finance",
      "message": "{{symbol}} ({{as_of}}) is more than 10% above its 200-day ({{ext|pct}}); the gold sleeve may be over target."
    }
  ],
  "dry_run": true
}

Response JSON (GLD, real)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "answers": {
    "trend": {
      "yes_no": 0.0537,
      "rule": "C > sma(C, 200)",
      "basis": "comparison"
    },
    "new_high": {
      "yes_no": 0.0537,
      "rule": "H > highest(H, 252)",
      "basis": "pattern"
    },
    "ext": {
      "yes_no": 0.0537,
      "rule": "C > sma(C, 200) * 1.1",
      "basis": "comparison"
    },
    "up_week": {
      "yes_no": 0.566
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "symbol": "GLD",
    "as_of": "2026-10-30"
  },
  "actions": [
    {
      "id": "trim_gold",
      "fired": false,
      "status": "skipped"
    }
  ]
}

highest sma

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Long-term passive investor · example 14

Friday contribution check for a three-fund plan

On contribution days, check each fund and post one note so purchases follow the plan.

ora-fin-0.1.13 symbols, one request each4 questions1 actionworkflow · Fri at 12:00 ET

ScheduleFri at 12:00 ET
State3 symbols
Questions4 asked
Answersreal, captured
Actions1 rule · dry run

State

{"symbol":"VTI"} then VXUS, BND, one request each. The server fills in the latest completed session.

Questions

`trend`	English → rule	Is the stock above its 200-day moving average?
`drawdown`	rule	`C < 0.8 * max(H, 252)` More than 20% off the 52-week high
`rsi_ob`	rule	`rsi(C, 14) > 70` RSI above 70
`drop5`	forecast	Will it drop at least 5% at some point in the next month? A 5% drawdown within a month

Answers

Symbol	`trend`rule	`drawdown`rule	`rsi_ob`rule	`drop5`forecast	Fired
`VTI`	0.9415	0.0537	0.0537	0.187	none
`VXUS`	0.3255	0.0537	0.0537	0.233	none
`BND`	0.2013	0.0537	0.2726	0.007	none

true false not known for rules; forecasts are odds. Hover a column for its question.

Actions

Rules on the answers decide what to send. Each symbol runs its own request, so each one can fire.

drawdown >= 0.6 or rsi_ob >= 0.6→Slackfamily-finance

VTI 0 of 1 fired · dry run, nothing sent

VXUS 0 of 1 fired · dry run, nothing sent

BND 0 of 1 fired · dry run, nothing sent

What it means

Session of 2026-10-30, 3 symbols: Is the stock above its 200-day moving average: true for VTI of 3. More than 20% off the 52-week high: true for none of 3. RSI above 70: true for none of 3. Highest odds for “A 5% drawdown within a month”: VXUS at 23%. note fired for none.

Every fund gets bought on schedule; the note only says which one is furthest below its high.

As a scheduled workflow (Fri at 12:00 ET)

Create it under Workflows in the console: it runs these questions for every symbol on the schedule and fires the actions per symbol. The answers above are what one run returned.

{
  "name": "Friday contribution check for a three-fund plan",
  "symbols": "VTI VXUS BND",
  "days": [
    5
  ],
  "at_time": "12:00",
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "questions": {
    "trend": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Is the stock above its 200-day moving average?"
    },
    "drawdown": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "C < 0.8 * max(H, 252)"
    },
    "rsi_ob": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "rsi(C, 14) > 70"
    },
    "drop5": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will it drop at least 5% at some point in the next month?"
    }
  },
  "actions": [
    {
      "id": "note",
      "when": "drawdown >= 0.6 or rsi_ob >= 0.6",
      "do": "slack",
      "connection": "family-finance",
      "message": "{{symbol}} ({{as_of}}): 20% drawdown {{drawdown|pct}}, overbought {{rsi_ob|pct}}. Contribution goes in as planned."
    }
  ]
}

Request JSON (VTI; the others differ only in the symbol)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "state": {
    "symbol": "VTI"
  },
  "questions": {
    "trend": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Is the stock above its 200-day moving average?"
    },
    "drawdown": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "C < 0.8 * max(H, 252)"
    },
    "rsi_ob": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "rsi(C, 14) > 70"
    },
    "drop5": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will it drop at least 5% at some point in the next month?"
    }
  },
  "actions": [
    {
      "id": "note",
      "when": "drawdown >= 0.6 or rsi_ob >= 0.6",
      "do": "slack",
      "connection": "family-finance",
      "message": "{{symbol}} ({{as_of}}): 20% drawdown {{drawdown|pct}}, overbought {{rsi_ob|pct}}. Contribution goes in as planned."
    }
  ],
  "dry_run": true
}

Response JSON (VTI, real)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "answers": {
    "trend": {
      "yes_no": 0.9415,
      "rule": "C > sma(C, 200)",
      "basis": "comparison"
    },
    "drawdown": {
      "yes_no": 0.0537,
      "rule": "C < 0.8 * max(H, 252)",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "rsi_ob": {
      "yes_no": 0.0537,
      "rule": "rsi(C, 14) > 70",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "drop5": {
      "yes_no": 0.187
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "symbol": "VTI",
    "as_of": "2026-10-30"
  },
  "actions": [
    {
      "id": "note",
      "fired": false,
      "status": "skipped"
    }
  ]
}

max rsi sma

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Long-term passive investor · example 15

Cash-like funds: SGOV and BIL steady

The emergency fund sits in Treasury bills; confirm they are behaving like cash.

ora-fin-0.1.12 symbols, one request each4 questions

State2 symbols
Questions4 asked
Answersreal, captured
Actionsnone

State

{"symbol":"SGOV"} then BIL, one request each. The server fills in the latest completed session.

Questions

`calm`	English → rule	Is 20-day historical volatility below 20%?
`up_year`	rule	`C > C[-252]` Higher than a year ago
`atr_low`	English → rule	Is the 14-day ATR less than 2% of the price?
`down_week`	forecast	Will the stock be lower in a week? Lower in a week

Answers

Symbol	`calm`rule	`up_year`rule	`atr_low`rule	`down_week`forecast
`SGOV`	0.9463	0.9463	0.9463	0.513
`BIL`	0.9463	0.9463	0.9463	0.533

true false not known for rules; forecasts are odds. Hover a column for its question.

What it means

Session of 2026-10-30, 2 symbols: Is 20-day historical volatility below 20%: true for SGOV, BIL of 2. Higher than a year ago: true for SGOV, BIL of 2. Is the 14-day ATR less than 2% of the price: true for SGOV, BIL of 2. Highest odds for “Lower in a week”: BIL at 53%.

Calm, rising bill funds are cash doing its job; anything else is worth a look at what the fund holds.

Request JSON (SGOV; the others differ only in the symbol)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "state": {
    "symbol": "SGOV"
  },
  "questions": {
    "calm": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Is 20-day historical volatility below 20%?"
    },
    "up_year": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "C > C[-252]"
    },
    "atr_low": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Is the 14-day ATR less than 2% of the price?"
    },
    "down_week": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will the stock be lower in a week?"
    }
  }
}

Response JSON (SGOV, real)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "answers": {
    "calm": {
      "yes_no": 0.9463,
      "rule": "std(log(C / C[-1]), 20) * sqrt(20 / 19) * sqrt(252) < 0.2",
      "basis": "pattern"
    },
    "up_year": {
      "yes_no": 0.9463,
      "rule": "C > C[-252]",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "atr_low": {
      "yes_no": 0.9463,
      "rule": "atr(14) / C < 0.02",
      "basis": "pattern"
    },
    "down_week": {
      "yes_no": 0.513
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "symbol": "SGOV",
    "as_of": "2026-10-30"
  }
}

atr log offset sqrt std

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Long-term passive investor · example 16

Long-term signal: golden cross on VTI

A slow signal for a slow investor: the 50-day over the 200-day.

ora-fin-0.1.1VTI5 questions

StateVTI
Questions5 asked
Answersreal, captured
Actionsnone

State

{"symbol":"VTI"} The server fills in the latest completed session.

Questions

`golden`	rule	`sma(C, 50) > sma(C, 200)` 50-day above the 200-day
`cross`	English → rule	Did a golden cross happen today?
`sma200`	rule	`sma(C, 200) > ref(sma(C, 200), -20)` The 200-day average is rising
`linreg`	rule	`linreg(C, 100) > ref(linreg(C, 100), -20)` 100-day regression line rising over a month
`drop5`	forecast	Will it drop at least 5% at some point in the next month? A 5% drawdown within a month

Answers

Question	Answer	Reading
`golden` 50-day above the 200-day	0.9463	true
`cross` Did a golden cross happen today compiled to `(sma(C, 50) > sma(C, 200)) and (ref(sma(C, 50), -1) <= ref(sma(C, 200), -1))`	0.0537	false
`sma200` The 200-day average is rising	0.9463	true
`linreg` 100-day regression line rising over a month	0.7637	true
`drop5` A 5% drawdown within a month	0.187	19% · unlikely

What it means

For VTI on the session of 2026-10-30: True now: 50-day above the 200-day; The 200-day average is rising; 100-day regression line rising over a month. Not true: Did a golden cross happen today. Forecasts: A 5% drawdown within a month 19%.

A golden alignment with a rising 200-day confirms the long trend; it changes nothing in a fixed plan.

Request JSON

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "state": {
    "symbol": "VTI"
  },
  "questions": {
    "golden": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "sma(C, 50) > sma(C, 200)"
    },
    "cross": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Did a golden cross happen today?"
    },
    "sma200": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "sma(C, 200) > ref(sma(C, 200), -20)"
    },
    "linreg": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "linreg(C, 100) > ref(linreg(C, 100), -20)"
    },
    "drop5": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will it drop at least 5% at some point in the next month?"
    }
  }
}

Response JSON (VTI, real)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "answers": {
    "golden": {
      "yes_no": 0.9463,
      "rule": "sma(C, 50) > sma(C, 200)",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "cross": {
      "yes_no": 0.0537,
      "rule": "(sma(C, 50) > sma(C, 200)) and (ref(sma(C, 50), -1) <= ref(sma(C, 200), -1))",
      "basis": "pattern"
    },
    "sma200": {
      "yes_no": 0.9463,
      "rule": "sma(C, 200) > ref(sma(C, 200), -20)",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "linreg": {
      "yes_no": 0.7637,
      "rule": "linreg(C, 100) > ref(linreg(C, 100), -20)",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "drop5": {
      "yes_no": 0.187
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "symbol": "VTI",
    "as_of": "2026-10-30"
  }
}

linreg ref sma

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Long-term passive investor · example 17

Dollar strength and international funds: UUP and VXUS

A rising dollar weighs on unhedged international returns; check both.

ora-fin-0.1.12 symbols, one request each4 questions

State2 symbols
Questions4 asked
Answersreal, captured
Actionsnone

State

{"symbol":"UUP"} then VXUS, one request each. The server fills in the latest completed session.

Questions

`trend`	rule	`C > sma(C, 50)` Above the 50-day average
`three_m`	rule	`C > C[-63]` Higher than three months ago
`rsi50`	rule	`rsi(C, 14) > 50` RSI above 50
`up_week`	forecast	Will the stock be higher in a week? Higher in a week

Answers

Symbol	`trend`rule	`three_m`rule	`rsi50`rule	`up_week`forecast
`UUP`	0.8725	0.9463	0.7635	0.561
`VXUS`	0.0851	0.0958	0.0926	0.587

true false not known for rules; forecasts are odds. Hover a column for its question.

What it means

Session of 2026-10-30, 2 symbols: Above the 50-day average: true for UUP of 2. Higher than three months ago: true for UUP of 2. RSI above 50: true for UUP of 2. Highest odds for “Higher in a week”: VXUS at 59%.

A strong dollar explains weak international returns; the investor keeps the allocation and rebalances.

Request JSON (UUP; the others differ only in the symbol)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "state": {
    "symbol": "UUP"
  },
  "questions": {
    "trend": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "C > sma(C, 50)"
    },
    "three_m": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "C > C[-63]"
    },
    "rsi50": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "rsi(C, 14) > 50"
    },
    "up_week": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will the stock be higher in a week?"
    }
  }
}

Response JSON (UUP, real)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "answers": {
    "trend": {
      "yes_no": 0.8725,
      "rule": "C > sma(C, 50)",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "three_m": {
      "yes_no": 0.9463,
      "rule": "C > C[-63]",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "rsi50": {
      "yes_no": 0.7635,
      "rule": "rsi(C, 14) > 50",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "up_week": {
      "yes_no": 0.561
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "symbol": "UUP",
    "as_of": "2026-10-30"
  }
}

offset rsi sma

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Long-term passive investor · example 18

Municipal bond sleeve: MUB and VTEB

Tax-free bond funds: calm, trending and not in a drawdown.

ora-fin-0.1.12 symbols, one request each4 questions

State2 symbols
Questions4 asked
Answersreal, captured
Actionsnone

State

{"symbol":"MUB"} then VTEB, one request each. The server fills in the latest completed session.

Questions

`trend`	rule	`C > sma(C, 50)` Above the 50-day average
`hv`	English → rule	Is 20-day historical volatility below 20%?
`drawdown`	rule	`C < 0.95 * max(H, 252)` More than 5% below its 52-week high
`up_week`	forecast	Will the stock be higher in a week? Higher in a week

Answers

Symbol	`trend`rule	`hv`rule	`drawdown`rule	`up_week`forecast
`MUB`	0.8666	0.9463	0.0885	0.588
`VTEB`	0.8783	0.9463	0.1003	0.561

true false not known for rules; forecasts are odds. Hover a column for its question.

What it means

Session of 2026-10-30, 2 symbols: Above the 50-day average: true for MUB, VTEB of 2. Is 20-day historical volatility below 20%: true for MUB, VTEB of 2. More than 5% below its 52-week high: true for none of 2. Highest odds for “Higher in a week”: MUB at 59%.

Calm munis need nothing; a five percent drawdown is unusual for this sleeve and worth understanding.

Request JSON (MUB; the others differ only in the symbol)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "state": {
    "symbol": "MUB"
  },
  "questions": {
    "trend": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "C > sma(C, 50)"
    },
    "hv": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Is 20-day historical volatility below 20%?"
    },
    "drawdown": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "C < 0.95 * max(H, 252)"
    },
    "up_week": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will the stock be higher in a week?"
    }
  }
}

Response JSON (MUB, real)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "answers": {
    "trend": {
      "yes_no": 0.8666,
      "rule": "C > sma(C, 50)",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "hv": {
      "yes_no": 0.9463,
      "rule": "std(log(C / C[-1]), 20) * sqrt(20 / 19) * sqrt(252) < 0.2",
      "basis": "pattern"
    },
    "drawdown": {
      "yes_no": 0.0885,
      "rule": "C < 0.95 * max(H, 252)",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "up_week": {
      "yes_no": 0.588
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "symbol": "MUB",
    "as_of": "2026-10-30"
  }
}

log max offset sma sqrt std

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Long-term passive investor · example 19

Annual portfolio review note to the family (Teams)

Once a year, post a one-line state of each core fund to the family channel.

ora-fin-0.1.12 symbols, one request each4 questions1 action

State2 symbols
Questions4 asked
Answersreal, captured
Actions1 rule · dry run

State

{"symbol":"VOO"} then BND, one request each. The server fills in the latest completed session.

Questions

`year`	rule	`C > C[-252]` Higher than a year ago
`trend`	English → rule	Is the stock above its 200-day moving average?
`drawdown`	rule	`C < 0.8 * max(H, 252)` More than 20% off the 52-week high
`beat_spy`	forecast	Will it beat SPY over the next month? Beating SPY over a month

Answers

Symbol	`year`rule	`trend`rule	`drawdown`rule	`beat_spy`forecast	Fired
`VOO`	0.9463	0.9463	0.0537	0.512	`teams`
`BND`	0.2986	0.2013	0.0537	0.279	`teams`

true false not known for rules; forecasts are odds. Hover a column for its question.

Actions

Rules on the answers decide what to send. Each symbol runs its own request, so each one can fire.

year >= 0→Webhookfamily-teams

VOO 1 of 1 fired · dry run, nothing sent

teamswould send (dry run)Webhook → family-teams

{
  "text": "VOO (2026-10-30): higher than a year ago 95%, above the 200-day 95%, in a 20% drawdown 5%."
}

BND 1 of 1 fired · dry run, nothing sent

teamswould send (dry run)Webhook → family-teams

{
  "text": "BND (2026-10-30): higher than a year ago 30%, above the 200-day 20%, in a 20% drawdown 5%."
}

What it means

Session of 2026-10-30, 2 symbols: Higher than a year ago: true for VOO of 2. Is the stock above its 200-day moving average: true for VOO of 2. More than 20% off the 52-week high: true for none of 2. Highest odds for “Beating SPY over a month”: VOO at 51%. teams fired for VOO, BND.

The note is a record, not a trade signal.

Request JSON (VOO; the others differ only in the symbol)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "state": {
    "symbol": "VOO"
  },
  "questions": {
    "year": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "C > C[-252]"
    },
    "trend": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Is the stock above its 200-day moving average?"
    },
    "drawdown": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "C < 0.8 * max(H, 252)"
    },
    "beat_spy": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will it beat SPY over the next month?"
    }
  },
  "actions": [
    {
      "id": "teams",
      "when": "year >= 0",
      "do": "webhook",
      "connection": "family-teams",
      "body": {
        "text": "{{symbol}} ({{as_of}}): higher than a year ago {{year|pct}}, above the 200-day {{trend|pct}}, in a 20% drawdown {{drawdown|pct}}."
      }
    }
  ],
  "dry_run": true
}

Response JSON (VOO, real)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "answers": {
    "year": {
      "yes_no": 0.9463,
      "rule": "C > C[-252]",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "trend": {
      "yes_no": 0.9463,
      "rule": "C > sma(C, 200)",
      "basis": "comparison"
    },
    "drawdown": {
      "yes_no": 0.0537,
      "rule": "C < 0.8 * max(H, 252)",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "beat_spy": {
      "yes_no": 0.512
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "symbol": "VOO",
    "as_of": "2026-10-30"
  },
  "actions": [
    {
      "id": "teams",
      "fired": true,
      "status": "dry_run",
      "do": "webhook",
      "connection": "family-teams",
      "preview": {
        "body": {
          "text": "VOO (2026-10-30): higher than a year ago 95%, above the 200-day 95%, in a 20% drawdown 5%."
        }
      }
    }
  ]
}

max offset sma

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Long-term passive investor · example 20

Is the index too concentrated in tech: XLK vs SPY

When technology runs far ahead, a cap-weighted index concentrates; check it.

ora-fin-0.1.12 symbols, one request each4 questions

State2 symbols
Questions4 asked
Answersreal, captured
Actionsnone

State

{"symbol":"XLK"} then SPY, one request each. The server fills in the latest completed session.

Questions

`ext`	English → rule	Is the stock more than 10% above its 200-day moving average?
`three_m`	rule	`C > C[-63]` Higher than three months ago
`near_high`	rule	`C >= 0.98 * max(H, 252)` Within 2% of the 52-week high
`beat_spy`	forecast	Will it beat SPY over the next month? Beating SPY over a month

Answers

Symbol	`ext`rule	`three_m`rule	`near_high`rule	`beat_spy`forecast
`XLK`	0.1261	0.6105	0.0537	0.498
`SPY`	0.0537	0.3809	0.0834	0.514

true false not known for rules; forecasts are odds. Hover a column for its question.

What it means

Session of 2026-10-30, 2 symbols: Is the stock more than 10% above its 200-day moving average: true for none of 2. Higher than three months ago: true for XLK of 2. Within 2% of the 52-week high: true for none of 2. Highest odds for “Beating SPY over a month”: SPY at 51%.

Tech far above its average shows concentration risk; a passive investor may add an equal-weight sleeve rather than trade.

Request JSON (XLK; the others differ only in the symbol)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "state": {
    "symbol": "XLK"
  },
  "questions": {
    "ext": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Is the stock more than 10% above its 200-day moving average?"
    },
    "three_m": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "C > C[-63]"
    },
    "near_high": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "ask": "C >= 0.98 * max(H, 252)"
    },
    "beat_spy": {
      "type": "yes_no",
      "instructions": "Will it beat SPY over the next month?"
    }
  }
}

Response JSON (XLK, real)

{
  "model": "ora-fin-0.1.1",
  "answers": {
    "ext": {
      "yes_no": 0.1261,
      "rule": "C > sma(C, 200) * 1.1",
      "basis": "comparison"
    },
    "three_m": {
      "yes_no": 0.6105,
      "rule": "C > C[-63]",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "near_high": {
      "yes_no": 0.0537,
      "rule": "C >= 0.98 * max(H, 252)",
      "basis": "rule"
    },
    "beat_spy": {
      "yes_no": 0.498
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "symbol": "XLK",
    "as_of": "2026-10-30"
  }
}

max offset sma

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Information, not investment advice. Rules answer from the latest completed daily session; forecasts are probabilities. Actions ran as dry runs: nothing was sent. More in Individuals: Retail investor, Active day trader, Swing trader, Options trader, Dividend investor, Crypto trader, FX trader, Commodities trader, Social trading community, Students and universities.

Create an account Open the Playground Everything here also lives in the console, next to your keys and usage.

Individuals

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Corporates

Builders

Institutions

Small-cap sleeve: IWM, IJR, VB trend and drawdown

State

Questions

Answers

What it means

Factor ETFs: QUAL, MTUM, VLUE, USMV

State

Questions

Answers

What it means

Gold as a diversifier: GLD trend

State

Questions

Answers

Actions

What it means

Friday contribution check for a three-fund plan

State

Questions

Answers

Actions

What it means

Cash-like funds: SGOV and BIL steady

State

Questions

Answers

What it means

Long-term signal: golden cross on VTI

State

Questions

Answers

What it means

Dollar strength and international funds: UUP and VXUS

State

Questions

Answers

What it means

Municipal bond sleeve: MUB and VTEB

State

Questions

Answers

What it means

Annual portfolio review note to the family (Teams)

State

Questions

Answers

Actions

What it means

Is the index too concentrated in tech: XLK vs SPY

State

Questions

Answers

What it means